Category: General Analysis
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Democrats And The 2024 Senate Problem
Most coverage of the 2024 Senate elections frames the race for the majority as resting on a knife’s edge. The logic, on paper, is sound — after all, Republicans need to flip at least two seats to take full control at a time when an exceptionally weak nominee, with a… Read More
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Suburban Republican Success: A Case Study in New Jersey
Generally speaking, the Democrats were clear winners in November’s off-year elections. Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear comfortably secured reelection, Brandon Presley came closer to winning in Mississippi than any Democrat in a generation, and Republicans lost control of Virginia’s House of Delegates. Democrats had much to be proud of in New… Read More
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How Have Populations Changed In Red and Blue States?
A week ago, state population totals from the Census Bureau’s annual population estimates were released, the first data covering population changes following the controversial Dobbs v. Jackson Supreme Court Decision. Before any conclusions are drawn, it is crucial to note the inherent margin of error found in all, and between… Read More
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Breaking Racial Polarization: A Case Study In The Deep South
The Upper Mississippi Delta region is home to some of the strongest and most intractable racial polarization anywhere in the country. Since the mass re-enfranchisement of black voters in the 1960s, white voters have overwhelmingly preferred Republicans while black voters have strongly backed Democrats. Long-term shifts driven by educational and… Read More
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What Do Aggregated Crosstabs Tell Us About 2024?
Now more than ever, political observers seem to be digging into polls’ crosstabs, oftentimes reacting with incredulity at some of the results among certain demographic subgroups. Sometimes they’ll even point to these seemingly impossible subgroup margins (e.g., “There’s just no way Trump is leading Biden among white college graduates!”) as… Read More
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What Happened In Mississippi?
On a night of surprisingly strong Democratic performances in the 2023 elections, Brandon Presley’s 3.2% loss in Mississippi’s gubernatorial election stands out. Facing an incumbent governor in a Trump +17 state in the Deep South, most had already written off the Presley campaign. Then, a catastrophic October Democratic underperformance in… Read More
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The Flip Side to the Dobbs Effect
Media coverage of elections has presented theories of how abortion-focused messaging has allowed Democrats to beat expectations. From June 2022 and beyond, this has largely been true — with the voters of states such as Ohio and Michigan recently electing to protect abortion rights in their states. Despite the position’s… Read More
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What Happened In 2023, And What Does It Mean For 2024?
It goes without saying that Democrats broadly exceeded pre-election expectations last Tuesday. Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear won reelection comfortably, improving relative to his 2019 performance across the state. In Mississippi, challenger Brandon Presley came closer to winning the gubernatorial race than any Democrat since 1999. Their success wasn’t limited to… Read More
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Our November 2023 State Legislative and Referendum Elections Preview
Tuesday’s gubernatorial elections may take up most of the attention, but they’re not the only important contests taking place this week. In Ohio, voters will decide two high-profile state initiatives. The first, Issue 1, would establish a state constitutional right to free reproductive decision making while prohibiting abortion restrictions prior… Read More