Category: General Analysis
-
Kari Lake Could Cost Republicans The Arizona Senate Seat
Earlier this week, Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema announced that she would not run for re-election, ending months of speculation about the possibility of a three-way contest. This development is a rare break of good news for Senate Democrats, for whom perfect conditions have not materialized: Joe Manchin is on track… Read More
-
The Cannabis Consensus: Marijuana Referendums Bridge Political Divides
As 2024 begins, Americans in twenty-four states and D.C. find themselves in jurisdictions where recreational marijuana is legal. Public opinion nationwide is now decisively in favor of legalization, with support hovering around 70%. Politicians have largely abandoned it as a polarizing issue. This was not always the case; at the… Read More
-
Trump v. Anderson: Will Colorado Succeed in Keeping Trump Off the Ballot?
The Supreme Court is no stranger to high-stakes cases with significant electoral implications. Since the 1960s, justices have resolved disputes over redistricting, the Voting Rights Act, felon disenfranchisement, campaign finance regulations, and even congressional term limits. That list is by no means exhaustive, but it highlights the fine line between… Read More
-
What Happened With Black Voters in Louisiana?
After the 2023 elections, Louisiana Republicans are arguably in their strongest position in history. The establishment of a firm supermajority eliminated the last vestiges of Democratic control from this formerly-blue “Solid South” state. As Democratic margins with southern white voters have steadily slipped cycle after cycle, margins with southern Black… Read More
-
Our NY-03 Special Election Preview
Today, voters will head to the polls to vote for a congressional representative to fill the vacancy created by former Representative George Santos’ expulsion. Both Republicans and Democrats expect a close race, given the extent of their recent investments in the district. With control of the House as narrow as… Read More
-
Larry Hogan Faces An Impossible Challenge
Former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan has recently announced a surprise run for the Old Line State’s open Senate seat. Hogan, a Trump critic who towed a moderate line, left office in 2023 as one of his state’s most popular governors in recent memory. Remarkably, his approval rating among Democrats exceeded… Read More
-
For Once, Republicans Might Want A High Turnout Election
Entering 2020, it was nearly impossible to find a national poll that had Joe Biden trailing Donald Trump. Polling averages all showed every Democratic candidate leading the then-incumbent Republican president by several points, with the question being the size of the margin. Commentary discussed whether the Republicans even had a… Read More
-
Do Democrats Have An Issue Advantage in Education?
Political battles over education are a tale as old as the government itself. From the creation of public schooling in the 1700s to clashes over book bans stretching into the modern era, education has been an ever-present force in American politics. It is also an issue that has long favored… Read More
-
The Potential Political Impact of Shifting State Populations
In Part 1 of this article, we reviewed population changes since both the 2020 Census and the Dobbs decision. Although shifts in the distribution of population can be interesting, it directly relates to political power through reapportionment. With any national population estimate released by the Census Bureau, observers often turn… Read More