Category: General Analysis
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The Largest Native American Voting Blocs
Native American voters are an under-discussed voting bloc in American elections, but by no means are they an insignificant one. Well-known Senate victories by candidates of both parties have been attributed to the Native vote — from Republican Lisa Murkowski’s 2010 write-in win in Alaska to Democrat Heidi Heitkamp’s 2012… Read More
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Introducing Our 2024 House Model
The 2024 House playing field has changed significantly since our previous official ratings update in September. In our last update, 210 seats favored Democrats and 203 favored Republicans, while the remaining 22 seats were tossups. In this iteration, however, both parties are favored in 211 seats, with 13 tossups. Our… Read More
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What’s In A Rating?
Last month, the Cook Political Report published an article with some eye-opening statistics: over their 38-year history, more than 95% of races they called as “leaning” toward a party went to said party. By contrast, over 97% of races they called as “likely” to go to a party resolved as… Read More
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Crosstabs at a Crossroads: Six Months Out
Just under six months out from Election Day, national polling averages are showing Donald Trump leading Joe Biden by just over 1 percentage point. They also show that, despite narratives of “momentum” for either candidate, the race has been fairly stable for the better part of a year. But what’s… Read More
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Temperature Check: 2024 Presidential Election
With six months to go in the 2024 presidential election cycle and both nominees set, it’s worth re-examining the state of the race. Polls are now more relevant, given increasing proximity to the election. While the fundamentals of the race, which include the issue landscape, campaign cash levels, and candidate… Read More
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The Pendulum Counties
Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election with a margin quite similar to that of the 2012 reelection of his predecessor Barack Obama — 4.5% and 3.9%, respectively. However, his coalition differed from Obama’s, having been the product of nearly a decade of electoral change. Many counties moved in one… Read More
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Chaos In The Crosstabs
Over the course of this election cycle, perhaps no single demographic has received more attention than young voters, which many polls now suggest to be increasingly Trump-curious. This has been observed alongside a similarly shocking swing toward Biden among elderly voters. If these surveys are correct, then our political landscape… Read More
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Temperature Check: Ohio Senate
Democrats won back the Senate in 2020 following historic victories in two hotly contested Georgia runoffs. Going into 2022, they had to hold Senate seats in three competitive Biden-won states to retain the majority (NV, AZ, and GA) — a difficult task for a party at the helm during a midterm.… Read More
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We Polled Young Voters. Here’s What We Found.
If you’ve followed any of the polling from this presidential election cycle, you’re probably aware of massive purported swings in the voting behavior of the youngest and oldest voters in the electorate portended by polling. Survey after survey shows Joe Biden gaining with seniors while cratering with young voters, whom… Read More