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Do Special Elections Mean Anything?
One of the biggest open questions is why recent Democratic special election performances continue to paint a completely different electoral picture than what current polling suggests. Polls continue to show an effectively tied race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, and Biden’s approval remains stuck in the low 40s. On the other hand, special elections… Read More
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House Temperature Check: 9/18
Six months have passed since we released our 2024 House ratings, following the lackluster showing by Republicans in the 2022 midterm elections. Since then, the national environment seems to have improved for Democrats and critical mid-decade redistricting is on the horizon in a number of important states. In light of these developments, we’re modifying our… Read More
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The Near-Miss House Districts Of 2022
The narrow outcome of the 2022 election makes a thought-provoking exercise out of looking at near-miss districts, where candidates suffered a loss partially attributable to a lack of financial support. To qualify for our list, a candidate must have lost by less than 3 points, had a positive WAR score, and faced more outside money… Read More
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Special Election Primary Preview: RI-01 & UT-02
Today, competitive Democratic and Republican primaries are taking place in Rhode Island’s 1st and Utah’s 2nd congressional districts, respectively. These districts, which voted for their favored Presidential candidate by substantial margins in 2020, are not expected to host competitive general elections in November. Therefore, the winners of tonight’s primaries are almost certain to enter Congress… Read More
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Joe Manchin’s 2024 Re-Election: Difficult or Impossible?
Senator Joe Manchin is the last remaining Democrat elected statewide in West Virginia. After defying state partisanship to win reelection in 2018, pundits wonder whether he can pull off an even more impressive victory in 2024. Our Safe Republican rating reflects the fact that Manchin’s path to victory is currently too narrow to indicate a… Read More
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How the 2024 House Elections Could Decide the Presidency
Imagine that it’s November 6th, 2024 and Americans nationwide are waking up to very unsettling news: neither candidate has hit the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency, meaning the president must be chosen by the House of Representatives in a contingent election the following year. For most voters, it’s confusing and alarming procedural… Read More
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Evaluating Sherrod Brown’s Path to Reelection
Senator Sherrod Brown has comfortably won three senate races and currently is the only Democratic statewide elected official in Ohio. His most recent reelection performance was impressive for a Trump-era Democrat in an increasingly-Republican state, but our 2018 WAR model suggests that it wasn’t particularly extraordinary. Brown overperformed by just 1.2 points relative to expectations,… Read More
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Issue 1 and a Proxy War in Ohio
The post-Dobbs era has seen a wave of attempts from legislatures to codify a preferred position on abortion into law, depending on the partisanship of the state legislature. In many states, these attempts have taken the form of ballot measures and referendums, where citizens vote directly on these matters. In the case of Ohio, a… Read More
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Could Julia Letlow Win In A Majority-Black District?
The Supreme Court’s recent Milligan decision affirmed an order for Alabama to draw a second majority-Black district. It also breathed life into a prominent Louisiana redistricting case: Ardoin v. Robinson. Last year, a district judge ruled that the state’s gerrymandered congressional map violated the VRA and ordered the creation of a district Black enough to… Read More
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