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Latest Posts

Using Fundamentals To Create An Adjusted Senate Forecast

By this point in the cycle, the conventional wisdom is clear: “polling favors the Democrats, especially in statewide races, because of candidate quality. But fundamentals favor the Republicans“. This is a notion further exacerbated by the fact that polling badly missed by overestimating Democrats in the previous election cycle, leaving many with a case of […]

District Rundown: Ohio’s 9th

BACKGROUND In August, Split Ticket launched a new general election preview series called District Rundown. The first edition covered the pivotal special election in New York’s 19th district, which ultimately helped to shift national expectations regarding the national environment in a Democratic direction. Because the November elections are only 44 days away, pieces focusing on […]

Is The Right Rising In Europe? An Analysis

Introduction Newton’s third law of motion, which states that every action has an equal and opposite reaction, applies to both physics and international politics. The connection might not be clear at first, since “opposite reactions” in the electoral sense often take time to manifest, but it is fundamental to understanding the wider world. Abroad, just […]


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