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Wisconsin Republicans Have An Off-Year Turnout Problem
On Tuesday, Wisconsin voters will elect a Supreme Court justice in an election that could decide the ideological balance of the court until 2028. Although we will not be releasing a model for this race, the early vote data we have extensively analyzed and modeled suggests Democratic-aligned liberal judge Susan Crawford is a clear favorite Read More
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Where Should Democrats Run Independents?
The Senate’s rural bias has put Democrats at a severe disadvantage in the chamber. This has been compounded by the rise of polarization, which cost Democrats the red states of Montana, West Virginia, and Ohio in 2024 — and what’s worse, there currently doesn’t seem to be a plausible path back to consistently winning states Read More
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Are Moderates More Electable?
Recently, a study from Stanford’s Adam Bonica came out, suggesting that moderation generally has little to do with electability, and that parties should seek to appeal to their base voters first and foremost in order to win elections. I have a lot of respect for Adam, and I won’t cast aspersions on his work. But Read More
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What Was the 2024 Congressional Popular Vote?
Political observers can readily recall the 2024 election outcome, with Trump’s sweep of the swing states being paired with Republicans trailing elsewhere downballot. Despite an arguably-favorable mid-decade redistricting cycle, Republicans lost two seats in November, which halved their House majority. The final tally showed that Kamala Harris stood 1.7% away from holding the White House Read More
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Democrats May Risk Their Own Tea Party Moment
For keen political observers, the most surprising thing about Donald Trump’s second term probably isn’t the slew of executive orders, the abrupt foreign policy pivots, or even the integration of Elon Musk in government. Instead, to many, it’s how relatively quiet Democrats have been in organizing public opposition. There are reasons to believe that this Read More
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The Jewish-American Vote
Analyzing the Jewish Vote is a challenging task. The U.S. Census does not track either Jewish religion or ethnicity, and who “counts” as Jewish is itself a controversial question. For our purposes, we will limit our analysis to 7.5–7.6 million Americans, including 5.8-6.1 million eligible voters (2.4% of the electorate), who are either Jews by Read More
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America’s Demographic Revolution
Last June, we did a deep dive into the 100 largest suburban counties to explore demographic and political change between 2000 and 2020. On the demographic front, we found that all of the suburban counties included in our analysis had become more diverse. This was consistent, but not homogeneous: Asian growth featured prominently in more Read More
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An Update To Our Historical Wins-Above-Replacement (WAR) Models
Over the last several years, we’ve devoted hundreds (if not thousands) of hours to quantitatively modeling candidate quality and creating robust baselines to assess candidate performance via our Wins Above Replacement (WAR) models. This is because we want to have hard numbers underpinning our discussions, especially given that candidate quality conjectures almost always lie in Read More
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Our 2024 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) Models
Today, we’re releasing our 2024 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) candidate quality models, for both the House and the Senate. For those of you unfamiliar with the concept, here’s a brief primer: our models assemble a “fundamentals”-based outcome estimate for a race by controlling for seat partisanship, incumbency, demographics, and money and help us project how Read More
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