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Who Is Voting For Reform Prosecutors?
Reform prosecutors entered the 2024 election year with significant headwinds: in recent years, they were recalled (Chesa Boudin in San Francisco), defeated (Marilyn Mosby in Baltimore City), and blowback to racial justice has mounted since the George Floyd summer nearly five years ago. But because prosecutors are elected at the county or circuit level, the Read More
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How did Split Ticket’s Models Perform in 2024?
At Split Ticket, we try to let data drive all of our decisions and forecasts. That’s why we transitioned from holistic ratings, like those used at the Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report, to a fully and strictly quantitative model, like FiveThirtyEight’s approach, in 2024. As the cycle completes, we owe it to readers Read More
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2024 Showed The Value Of Polling
Going into election night, polling suggested a close race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, with surveys showing less than a half percentage point separating the two candidates in the tipping point state in Pennsylvania. The bulk of polling suggested that the race would come down to the wire, with a Trump or Harris sweep Read More
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Our Final Forecast
President At the presidential level, our model views this race as a tossup, with Kamala Harris as a nominal favorite (making her our pick for the presidency). We give her a 53% chance of winning, and project her to win 270 electoral votes — at the moment, the “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Read More
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The Case For (And Against) A Kamala Harris Victory
With just three days to go until election day, our forecast remains that the presidency is a pure tossup, with Kamala Harris at a 53% chance to win and Donald Trump at a 47% chance to win. Harris is a nominal favorite, and so if you forced us to make a pick for the presidency, Read More
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Understanding the 2024 Early Vote
In the run-up to the 2020 Presidential Election, Donald Trump repeatedly questioned the security of early voting (particularly mail-in voting) and encouraged Republicans to vote in-person or on election day. His base, distrustful of state boards of election and concerned about interference, largely followed suit. At the same time, Democrats strongly encouraged their supporters to Read More
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Are GOP-Leaning Pollsters Biasing The Averages? (No.)
One question we keep getting is whether Republican-leaning polls are biasing our poll averages. The criticism goes as such: since the averages are only as good as the data that goes into it, a flood of polls from GOP-leaning pollsters would meaningfully bias the polling outlook rightward. This is what many call “flooding the zone”. Read More
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Temperature Check (10/26): Model Wars (And Is Early Voting Predictive?)
As we enter the final stretch of the campaign, Democratic fretting about the election continues to ramp up. Multiple news articles have documented the “vibe shift,” noting that some within the party have already begun to point fingers at those they believe will be responsible for a Harris loss. These fears are not entirely unfounded, Read More
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Temperature Check (10/19): The Signal And The Noise
Our forecast this week sees Kamala Harris’ odds tick down a notch, from 55% to 53%. Readers may note that this marks the fourth straight week of decline from her peak of 62% when the model launched, which happened fresh off a debate that Harris was widely seen as having won. This begs the question: Read More
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