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arminthomas
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Examining California’s “Blueshift”
Many observers falsely assume that California’s electorate gets uniformly bluer between primary and general elections, giving Democratic candidates an edge in competitive races at the congressional and legislative levels. Reality is more complicated than any statewide average admits. Shifts don’t just vary based on political environments; they’re also affected by different demographic and geographic characteristics…
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Montana’s Reservations Lean Blue. They Could Get Bluer.
Introduction Control of the United States Senate may hinge on Montana, where Democratic Senator Jon Tester is set to face what could be his toughest re-election bid. National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Steve Daines, a fellow Montanan, is taking the effort to unseat Tester seriously. As Montana voted for Trump by over 15 points in…
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Eastern Ohio’s 6th District May Decide the Future of Buckeye State Democrats Statewide
The current wave of political realignment hitting the nation is breaking hard in Ohio. The exodus of working-class white voters from the Democratic Party has been most pronounced in the Buckeye State. Once a highly-competitive bellwether state, Ohio is now firmly red. Longtime hotbeds of blue strength in eastern Ohio along the Pennsylvania and West…
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Which Key Race Outcomes Might Libertarians Have Changed?
Introduction Much important American electoral discourse revolves around spoiler candidates. In other words, minor contenders (typically representing third parties) who win just enough votes to be accused of preventing major-party candidates from securing majorities in tight races. The use of first-past-the-post voting in most U.S. states makes it easier for observers to blame “spoilers” because…
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Looking Back at Utah’s 2022 Senate Race
One of the most surprising results of the 2022 midterms was the relatively close Utah Senate race. The ruby-red state posted a 10.4-point win for incumbent GOP Sen. Mike Lee over conservative independent Evan McMullin — a remarkable underperformance by Lee. By comparison, the comparatively more competitive state of Florida voted for Sen. Marco Rubio,…
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Georgia Senate Runoff Preview
On Tuesday, Georgia voters will go to the polls for the Senate runoff election, which was triggered by no candidate getting an outright majority in the November general election. Incumbent Democratic senator Raphael Warnock will face off against former UGA football star Herschel Walker, and with Warnock having led Walker in the first round 49.4–48.5…
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Against The Trend: New England
Introduction Welcome to the third edition of Against The Trend, a new series devoted to regional analyses of the 2022 House election results. After covering New York and Texas, today’s publication examines how Split Ticket’s ratings held up in New England — one of the country’s crossover voting havens. There’s also plenty of analytical content…
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Candidate Quality Cost Statewide Republicans In 2022
Heading into the election, several national indicators pointed to the Republican Party likely having a fairly good night. Biden’s approval sat at 44%, the generic ballot sat at R+1.1, and inflation was still around 8%, with gas prices more expensive than they were during the red wave-esque environment of November 2021. One key problem for…
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Our Final Governor’s Ratings
The board is set. There are only a few days left before Election Day, and thus Split Ticket has now made final forecasts for the 2022 gubernatorial elections. The map is immediately below, followed by an explanation of each race. Overall, the result is a modestly good night for the GOP: This map incorporates 9 rating…
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Does Evan McMullin Have A Chance?
For the first time in nearly 50 years, Utah has a chance of sending someone other than a Republican to the U.S. Senate. A traditionally conservative state, Utah routinely elects Republicans by margins in excess of 30 points. But incumbent Senator Mike Lee is weaker than the average Republican, and his opponent, Evan McMullin, is…