Armin Thomas
-
Special Election Primary Preview: RI-01 & UT-02
Today, competitive Democratic and Republican primaries are taking place in Rhode Island’s 1st and Utah’s 2nd congressional districts, respectively. These districts, which voted for their favored Presidential candidate by substantial margins in 2020, are not expected to host competitive general elections in November. Therefore, the winners of tonight’s primaries are… Read More
-
Joe Manchin’s 2024 Re-Election: Difficult or Impossible?
Senator Joe Manchin is the last remaining Democrat elected statewide in West Virginia. After defying state partisanship to win reelection in 2018, pundits wonder whether he can pull off an even more impressive victory in 2024. Our Safe Republican rating reflects the fact that Manchin’s path to victory is currently… Read More
-
Evaluating Sherrod Brown’s Path to Reelection
Senator Sherrod Brown has comfortably won three senate races and currently is the only Democratic statewide elected official in Ohio. His most recent reelection performance was impressive for a Trump-era Democrat in an increasingly-Republican state, but our 2018 WAR model suggests that it wasn’t particularly extraordinary. Brown overperformed by just… Read More
-
Could Julia Letlow Win In A Majority-Black District?
The Supreme Court’s recent Milligan decision affirmed an order for Alabama to draw a second majority-Black district. It also breathed life into a prominent Louisiana redistricting case: Ardoin v. Robinson. Last year, a district judge ruled that the state’s gerrymandered congressional map violated the VRA and ordered the creation of… Read More
-
America and the Affirmative Action Debate
Last month, the Supreme Court decided Students for Fair Admissions, Inc. v. President and Fellows of Harvard College, holding that race-based affirmative action programs in college admissions violate both Title VI of the Civil Rights Act and the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment. The decision, which also covered… Read More
-
The Milligan Decision: What Does It Mean for Alabama Redistricting?
On June 8th, the Supreme Court handed down a 5-4 decision in Allen v. Milligan, finding that Alabama’s current congressional map likely violates the Voting Rights Act of 1965. The decision paves the way for a second majority-black district in the state. More importantly, the Court held that the VRA… Read More
-
New York City’s Changing Coalitions
New York City is the most diverse city in the world and its electoral coalitions follow these sectional lines. Because voters with similar identities often share political preferences, understanding demographic change helps explain the coalition changes in New York City across forty years: between the 1984 and 2020 presidential elections.… Read More
-
Our Initial 2024 Presidential Ratings
With the Republican presidential primary field all but set and the election less than 18 months away, Split Ticket now debuts its initial 2024 presidential ratings. Historically, preference volatility has hindered projection-making from this point in time, over a year out from either party convention. However, with increased ideological entrenchment,… Read More
-
Our Initial 2024 Senate Ratings
The upcoming Senate map has been on “borrowed time” for Democrats for almost two decades, but a mix of exceptional candidate quality and excellent environments have kept them afloat for quite some time. In 2006, Democrats defeated six of the so-called “Class I” Republicans, flipping the Senate in a wave… Read More