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arminthomas
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Empire State Shocker
Start spreadin’ the news. This race is in play. Zeldin has got a shot at it. New York, New York. Today, Split Ticket is moving the governor’s election in New York State from Safe Democratic to Likely Democratic. Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin is mounting a stronger-than-expected challenge. New York, a heavily blue state, is not…
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Oklahoma Governor: What’s Going On
Oklahoma’s governor, Kevin Stitt, is the latest Republican incumbent to suffer electoral headwinds due to caustic rhetoric and policy. Previously, Split Ticket discussed the factors underlying the ratings change for South Dakota’s Kristi Noem. But similar to Noem, Stitt has antagonized a number of key groups, faces a strong Democratic opponent, and suffers from closer-than-expected…
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What’s Happening in South Dakota?
South Dakota is normally a red state. And by red, this means very red. Donald Trump won the state by 30 points in 2016 and by 26 points in 2020. In past eras of the New Deal and of the 1980s Farm Crisis, Democrats were more competitive, but today, South Dakota’s heavily white and rural…
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October Gubernatorial Ratings Changes
Since our last Split Ticket gubernatorial ratings update, a lot has changed in the political landscape. Accordingly, we are making ratings changes to reflect the updated pictures in the national and statewide political environments as the election nears. Our current ratings are listed below. Democrats are favored to win 21 governorships, while Republicans are favored…
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What’s Going On With Trafalgar’s Polls?
Over the last two presidential cycles, the Trafalgar Group rose to fame for its polling, which yielded better-than-average results for Republicans and indicated closer races for Donald Trump than many other outlets predicted. Trafalgar partly attributes those numbers to its “social desirability metric”, which the firm claims adjusts for respondents, especially conservatives, answering the way…
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Could Maura Healey Make History in Massachusetts?
The September 6th statewide primaries in Massachusetts will be among the last sets of US elections before the November midterms, and the top of the ticket in the Bay State will be a referendum on who voters want to succeed outgoing Republican Governor Charlie Baker. With no Massachusetts Republican even remotely approaching Baker’s sky-high approval…
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The Reach of The Old Coalitions
One of the fundamental truths of American politics states that out-parties tend to gain seats in midterm elections. Historical causes include voter anger, changing electoral compositions, and economic concerns. This midterm axiom has been remarkably steady over the decades, with 1998 and 2002 constituting the only recent divergences. Historical data also suggest that wave midterms,…
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Alaska: A Deep Dive Into The Last Frontier
BACKGROUND On March 18th, Republican Congressman Don Young passed away, leaving Alaska without a representative in the Congress for the first time since 1973. Young, formerly Dean of the House, enjoyed a half-century tenure, making him the longest serving Republican representative in history. Along with that of former Senator Ted Stevens, Young’s legacy has made…
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Florida, Under The Hood
No state inspires emotionally-charged and heartbreak-filled political discourse quite like Florida does. Democrats have lost every top-ticket race since 2012, often by the thinnest of margins, and in 2020, the vaunted lurch rightward of virtually every major demographic in the state (apart from select groups of suburban college-educated whites) shocked observers. Soon after, Republicans finally…