Harrison Lavelle
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Temperature Check: Ohio Senate
Democrats won back the Senate in 2020 following historic victories in two hotly contested Georgia runoffs. Going into 2022, they had to hold Senate seats in three competitive Biden-won states to retain the majority (NV, AZ, and GA) — a difficult task for a party at the helm during a midterm.… Read More
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Primary Preview: March 17th
Later today, voters in Ohio and Illinois will select their congressional nominees for the November elections. A top-two special election in CA-20 will also be held. Split Ticket will have live coverage of all the key races starting at 7:30 EDT. In Ohio, three major candidates are vying for the… Read More
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Our Super Tuesday Congressional Preview
Super Tuesday has traditionally been an interesting day for Presidential nominations, where at least one party has a competitive, decisive primary with states splitting multiple ways. This year will almost certainly not see a repeat, as neither the Republican nor the Democratic party has a truly contested primary. As both… Read More
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Trump v. Anderson: Will Colorado Succeed in Keeping Trump Off the Ballot?
The Supreme Court is no stranger to high-stakes cases with significant electoral implications. Since the 1960s, justices have resolved disputes over redistricting, the Voting Rights Act, felon disenfranchisement, campaign finance regulations, and even congressional term limits. That list is by no means exhaustive, but it highlights the fine line between… Read More
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Suburban Republican Success: A Case Study in New Jersey
Generally speaking, the Democrats were clear winners in November’s off-year elections. Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear comfortably secured reelection, Brandon Presley came closer to winning in Mississippi than any Democrat in a generation, and Republicans lost control of Virginia’s House of Delegates. Democrats had much to be proud of in New… Read More
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What Happened In 2023, And What Does It Mean For 2024?
It goes without saying that Democrats broadly exceeded pre-election expectations last Tuesday. Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear won reelection comfortably, improving relative to his 2019 performance across the state. In Mississippi, challenger Brandon Presley came closer to winning the gubernatorial race than any Democrat since 1999. Their success wasn’t limited to… Read More
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Our November 2023 State Legislative and Referendum Elections Preview
Tuesday’s gubernatorial elections may take up most of the attention, but they’re not the only important contests taking place this week. In Ohio, voters will decide two high-profile state initiatives. The first, Issue 1, would establish a state constitutional right to free reproductive decision making while prohibiting abortion restrictions prior… Read More
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New Jersey Temperature Check: 10/21
Last week, we adjusted our legislative ratings in Virginia to reflect the current political environment. With the latest fundraising reports available, we’re now doing the same for New Jersey’s State Senate and Assembly. While a lot has changed since our first update in February, Democrats ultimately remain comfortable favorites to… Read More
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Virginia Temperature Check: 10/12
Today we’re updating our legislative forecast in Virginia for the first time since February. The ratings changes reflect the assumption that the political environment is at least more Democratic than it was last year. Our recent special elections analysis goes into the subject in more detail. In short, we’re expecting… Read More