Viewing posts under:
Harrison Lavelle
-
Examining California’s “Blueshift”
Many observers falsely assume that California’s electorate gets uniformly bluer between primary and general elections, giving Democratic candidates an edge in competitive races at the congressional and legislative levels. Reality is more complicated than any statewide average admits. Shifts don’t just vary based on political environments; they’re also affected by different demographic and geographic characteristics…
-
Our 2024 House Ratings
Republicans had an excellent chance to secure a comfortable House majority in 2022. The “out” party had gained seats in all but three midterms since 1862. Additionally, Democratic President Joe Biden suffered lower approval ratings throughout the cycle than Barack Obama had in November 2010, and only 23% of exit poll respondents rated the nation’s…
-
Can Southern Democrats Thread The Electoral Needle Again?
With the 2023 gubernatorial election cycle now kicking into full swing, Split Ticket is previewing and rating each election. We’ve already broken down the Kentucky gubernatorial race in a previous article, but today, we’ll be finishing off the set by discussing Mississippi and Louisiana. Mississippi If a poster child existed for “unpopular incumbent governor embroiled…
-
Our 2023 Legislative Ratings: Virginia
Today’s analysis offers preliminary ratings for the key House of Delegates and Senate races in Virginia. Last week, we gave our initial thoughts on fall legislative elections in New Jersey – where neither the Senate nor the Assembly is at risk of flipping to the Republicans. Keep an eye out for our 2023 gubernatorial ratings…
-
Primary Recap: Wisconsin
Primary Recap Wisconsin voters decided the first round of this year’s nonpartisan state Supreme Court election on Tuesday. Judges Janet Protasiewicz (a liberal) and Dan Kelly (a conservative) will advance to a hotly-contested April general election in one of the nation’s top swing states. Although Wisconsin Supreme Court candidates have no formal partisan affiliations, coalitions…
-
Another State Supreme Court Battle Brews In Wisconsin
Introduction Few states are as politically divided as Wisconsin, which voted for former President Trump in 2016 by a mere 23,000 votes, and for President Biden in 2020 by an even narrower 20-thousand vote margin. Federally, Wisconsin is one of just a handful of states that elected a bipartisan senate duo to Washington. In the…
-
Our 2023 Legislative Ratings: New Jersey
In addition to covering the gubernatorial elections in Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi, we at Split Ticket will be rating state legislative races in New Jersey and Virginia. Today’s analysis offers an early look at the key primary and general election contests for the Assembly and Senate in the Garden State. Both chambers of Virginia’s legislature…
-
How Has The US Senate Managed To Stay Competitive?
The 2024 Senate map is conventionally challenging for Democrats. Republicans need just two seats to flip the chamber, while Democrats must defend 23. Eight of the states that they are defending were more Republican than the nation in 2020 and three (Montana, West Virginia, and Ohio) backed President Trump twice while voting more than ten…
-
World Report: Berlin’s Repeat State Elections
Introduction Last month Split Ticket examined recent electoral and political developments in Brazil and Peru, bringing back World Report for the 2023 cycle. This edition of the series will review the results of the January presidential runoff in the Czech Republic while previewing today’s redo state elections in Berlin. Czech Republic – January 27th and…
-
Which Key Race Outcomes Might Libertarians Have Changed?
Introduction Much important American electoral discourse revolves around spoiler candidates. In other words, minor contenders (typically representing third parties) who win just enough votes to be accused of preventing major-party candidates from securing majorities in tight races. The use of first-past-the-post voting in most U.S. states makes it easier for observers to blame “spoilers” because…