Harrison Lavelle
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6/28 Primary Recap – The Last Super Tuesday
Primary Recap – Important Developments *A specific piece focusing solely on the implications of the special election in Nebraska’s 1st will be published tomorrow* Colorado The Colorado GOP had an excellent night in statewide primaries on Tuesday. Extreme candidates Ron Hanks, Greg Lopez, and Tina Peters all lost to mainstream challengers who are perceived as […]
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Primary Round-Up: 6/14
Texas-34 (GOP Success in South Texas) Last night concluded the closely-watched special election campaign in Texas-34, a seat that runs north along the Gulf Coast from the heart of the Rio Grande Valley to the greater San Antonio area. Republican Mayra Flores defeated Democratic attorney Dan Sanchez 51-43.3%, avoiding a runoff in this Biden +4 […]
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House Watchlist 6/14
Introduction This Tuesday, a series of hotly-contested House primaries will be occurring in Nevada and South Carolina. In addition to the latest nomination news, Split Ticket will provide updates on the House special elections in AK-AL and TX-34. To find out more about this year’s primary cycle, check out our watchlist and 2022 ratings courtesy […]
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How Important Is Presidential Lean In Midterm Years?
Introduction Previous Split Ticket research indicates that a district’s presidential lean is the single greatest predictor of its House result in a presidential year. Polarization has only reinforced this conclusion, causing the total number of “crossover” seats to shrink significantly over the last two decades. (Read more here) Since there is no sign that this […]