Viewing posts under:
Harrison Lavelle
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World Report: Berlin’s Repeat State Elections
Introduction Last month Split Ticket examined recent electoral and political developments in Brazil and Peru, bringing back World Report for the 2023 cycle. This edition of the series will review the results of the January presidential runoff in the Czech Republic while previewing today’s redo state elections in Berlin. Czech Republic – January 27th and…
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Which Key Race Outcomes Might Libertarians Have Changed?
Introduction Much important American electoral discourse revolves around spoiler candidates. In other words, minor contenders (typically representing third parties) who win just enough votes to be accused of preventing major-party candidates from securing majorities in tight races. The use of first-past-the-post voting in most U.S. states makes it easier for observers to blame “spoilers” because…
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Election Review: New Jersey’s 7th district
Introduction Welcome to the second edition of Election Review, Split Ticket’s new ex post facto House analysis series. Following last week’s Ohio breakdown, today’s installment takes us east to New Jersey. We visualized the 7th district House election results using a number of maps and data tables, allowing us to quantitatively evaluate the impact of…
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Election Review: Ohio
Introduction With 2022 in the rearview mirror, we at Split Ticket decided to start a new series called Election Review devoted to analyzing significant House races on a state by state basis. In addition to our previous Against The Trend publications, which focused on crossover voting driven by down-ballot lag, Election Review will utilize our…
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Electability, Ideology, and the 2022 Midterms
At Split Ticket, we have repeatedly proven that candidate-driven effects fundamentally impact election results, but we have not completely addressed a more controversial question: do ideologically-extreme candidates pay electoral penalties? Previous analysis on the correlation between moderation and overperformance suggests that they do. Today’s piece hints at a more profound claim: electability was a bigger…
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World Report: Brazil and Peru
Introduction The 2022 midterms may be over, but Split Ticket’s foreign coverage continues. Today’s publication is the first of a two-part World Report release breaking down both the biggest global developments since our previous installment and 2023’s important electoral contests. What’d We Miss? Brazil If political squabbling doesn’t seem tumultuous enough in the United States,…
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Introducing Split Ticket’s Congressional Voting Index (CVI)
INTRODUCTION Split Ticket’s new Congressional Voting Index (CVI) gauges each House district’s partisan lean. In contrast to counterparts like Cook PVI, our CVI uses a unique methodology that makes it more representative of the current electoral climate. This tool will improve our 2024 House ratings by shedding light on how seats may be expected to…
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Cutting Through Chaos: Electing the Next Speaker of the House
INTRODUCTION Yesterday, the 118th Congress convened in Washington D.C. to conduct inaugural proceedings. Many of the 434 members-elect of the House of Representatives* expected normal starts to their new terms. They would first elect a speaker, then agree to rules and receive codified committee assignments. But, as last-minute squabbling over House Republicans’ de facto speaker…
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Our 2022 House Wins Above Replacement (WAR) Model
>>> Jump to WAR Table Our 2020 House wins-above-replacement (WAR) model showed that spending still matters in American politics. Among other things, the new 2022 edition proves that candidate quality, or the lack thereof, can fundamentally impact competitive races. Controversial contenders paid a bigger penalty across the board this cycle than they did in 2020.…
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Against The Trend: California
Introduction To celebrate the holiday season, Split Ticket’s Against The Trend series is heading west to California. Rich both in geographic wonders and cultural diversity, the country’s most populated state dominates the 435-seat House of Representatives. Though the Golden State recently lost a seat in decennial reapportionment, its 52-member Congressional delegation comfortably remains the largest…