Harrison Lavelle
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District Rundown: Indiana’s 1st
BACKGROUND Welcome to the seventh edition of District Rundown, Split Ticket’s biweekly House analysis series. The last publication focused on Colorado’s 8th district, a marginal Biden seat that Republicans are now favored to flip. Today’s release brings us to the heart of the Rust Belt to look at another high-stakes GOP target: Indiana’s 1st district. […]
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District Rundown: Colorado’s 8th
BACKGROUND & AUTHOR’S NOTE Welcome back to the sixth edition of District Rundown, coming just under three weeks before election day. Our last publication covered the TOSSUP race in Rhode Island’s 2nd district, one of the nation’s few late-breaking House contests. By popular demand, this week’s installment is moving west to the beautiful Centennial State […]
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District Rundown: Rhode Island’s 2nd
BACKGROUND Welcome back to District Rundown, a biweekly series analyzing some of the nation’s top House races. This edition, coming just three weeks before election day, covers the race in Rhode Island’s 2nd district, which has recently moved to center stage. Split Ticket moved the seat from LEANS DEMOCRATIC back to TOSSUP last week, a […]
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District Rundown: New Jersey’s 7th
BACKGROUND Election day is less than 30 days away and Split Ticket has already published its second-to-last House Temperature Check. With the November picture becoming clearer each day, time is running out to cover some of the nation’s most competitive districts individually. The last edition of District Rundown analyzed why Ohio’s 9th district is staying […]
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World Report: Landtagswahl in Niedersachsen
BACKGROUND On October 9th, voters will go to the polls to determine the composition of Niedersachsen’s Landtag (state parliament). This is the fifth Landtagswahl of 2022, with elections in Saarland, Schleswig-Holstein, Nordrhein-Westfalen, and Sachsen having occurred earlier this year. While these contests can provide valuable insight into how different Germans feel about their federal government, […]
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World Report: Brazil Special
BACKGROUND The last edition of World Report focused on the state of right-wing populist parties in Europe, concluding that while some have recently gained ground, their odds of long-term growth are contingent on differences in culture, institutions, and socioeconomic situations between the various countries. Italy, for instance, has proven far more cogent to the right’s […]
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Indiana Realignment
INTRODUCTION Back in July, Split Ticket started a new analysis series looking at realignments in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. To add some geographic diversity to the repertoire, this edition will move west to break down Indiana. The Hoosier State is an excellent case study for both the national trends of the last two decades and […]
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District Rundown: Ohio’s 9th
BACKGROUND In August, Split Ticket launched a new general election preview series called District Rundown. The first edition covered the pivotal special election in New York’s 19th district, which ultimately helped to shift national expectations regarding the national environment in a Democratic direction. Because the November elections are only 44 days away, pieces focusing on […]
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Is The Right Rising In Europe? An Analysis
Introduction Newton’s third law of motion, which states that every action has an equal and opposite reaction, applies to both physics and international politics. The connection might not be clear at first, since “opposite reactions” in the electoral sense often take time to manifest, but it is fundamental to understanding the wider world. Abroad, just […]