Later today, voters in Ohio and Illinois will select their congressional nominees for the November elections. A top-two special election in CA-20 will also be held. Split Ticket will have live coverage of all the key races starting at 7:30 EDT.
In Ohio, three major candidates are vying for the GOP nomination to take on entrenched Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown. Formerly a swing state, Ohio has in recent years become a bastion for the “Trumpified” GOP. After twice voting for the former president and delivering him a hand-picked senator in J.D. Vance, Ohio is poised to comfortably back Trump again in 2024. Republicans are also looking to replace two congressmen and expand their share of the state’s congressional delegation, with three Democratic seats in play.
The Trump endorsement holds considerable sway in this state. In 2022, former President Donald Trump endorsed “Hillbilly Elegy” author J.D. Vance in his bid for the Republican nomination for an open Senate seat in Ohio. Only after this endorsement did Vance begin to surge in the polls over second-place finisher Josh Mandel. Vance went on to win the primary and the general election. In his victory, Trump-touting populist Vance replaced the comparatively institutionalist Rob Portman.
While Vance may have been the perfect candidate in Trump’s eyes, he was one of the top WAR underperformers of 2022 (D+5.2). Despite benefiting from a more conservative national environment, Vance underran Trump’s 2020 margins. His unimpressive performance, especially compared to that of Governor Mike DeWine, suggests that he may have hurt Republican congressional candidates downballot. In OH-01 and OH-13, Democrats won by only five points, and in OH-09, embattled candidate J.R. Majewski was handily defeated by Representative Marcy Kaptur in a Trump-won district. Perhaps the outcome of the 2022 race was decided as early as April of that year.
Ohio Republicans face a similar choice on Tuesday. By endorsing Bernie Moreno (who dropped out of the 2022 primary and endorsed Vance), Trump has made his choice in the primary over Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose and 2022 also-ran Matt Dolan. Two consecutive victories for Moreno would allow Trump to take credit for both his and Vance’s victories in their respective primaries — and undoubtedly too, their fealty in the upper legislative chamber.
But crucially, Republicans aren’t nominating a Senate candidate to replace one of their own. The winner of the primary will contest the seat against Senator Sherrod Brown, who has vanquished Republicans thrice before — and if early polling is to be believed — appears in position to extend that streak in November.
Among the three candidates, Dolan regularly performs best in polling, with Moreno performing the worst. Dolan trails Brown by 3.5% in a selection of polls, while Moreno trails by 7.8% (and LaRose trails by 5.3%). That 4% difference between two candidates could prove decisive in a close race. This makes the outcome of the Senate primary particularly interesting, as in this seat currently rated as Leans Republican, even marginal differences between the candidates in a primary can have an amplified effect on the general election.
The GOP Senate primary isn’t the only contest of interest. Republican nominating contests nearly guarantee election to congress in open seats OH-02 and OH-06. In Democrat-held seats OH-09 and OH-13, multiple Republicans are clamoring for an opportunity to flip their districts, and the specific candidate nominated may have similar impact on potential House control for the 119th Congress.
In Toledo-area OH-09, Craig Riedel is seeking nomination after losing to J.R. Majewski by only 5 points in 2022. Crucially, however, negative comments about Donald Trump have attracted a challenger in Derek Merrin. Merrin is endorsed by Majewski, who has dropped out but remains on the ballot, and was also given a last-minute endorsement boost by the former President. A large pro-Trump turnout for the presidential primary will likely hand the nomination to Merrin.
In Akron-based OH-13, Kevin Coughlin and Chris Banweg are seeking the GOP nomination. Both men have raised and spent similar amounts of money, and both are endorsed by various Ohio power players, such as Representative Jim Jordan for Coughlin and Senator Vance for Banweg. Tonight’s winner will face freshman Democrat Emilia Sykes in a district which went for President Biden by only 2.8 points in 2020.
In OH-02, a sprawling district in southern Ohio, Representative Brad Wenstrup decided not to seek another term in Congress. Winning the Republican nomination is as good as winning the general election in this Trump +40 seat. A handful of Republicans are seeking nomination here, with David Taylor, Larry Kidd, Tim O’Hara, and State Senator Niraj Antani leading the fundraising. No single candidate appears particularly favored here.
Further attention should be brought to OH-06, where the resignation of Representative Bill Johnson in January opened up a House seat in Appalachian Ohio. Like in OH-02, the Republican primary is tantamount to victory in this district. Rather surprisingly, little beltway attention has been given to the primary for this special election. While both men (unsurprisingly) bill themselves as pro-Trump conservatives, Stoltzfus’ messaging has explicitly Christian overtones. This is another case where both men are spending and raising similar amounts of money, and both men can tout endorsements from sitting representatives (Joyce for Rulli, Davidson for Stoltzfus) and local political figures.
Three House primaries will also be contested in nearby Illinois. The first is the Democratic contest in IL-07, a solid blue seat in Chicago. There, controversial incumbent Danny Davis is seeking reelection after winning his 2022 primary against progressive challenger Kina Collins by just six points. Collins is running again, but faces competition from four other Democrats looking to knock off Davis. The most prominent of these is Chicago City Treasurer Melissa Conyears Ervin, who has actually outraised the incumbent. Divided opposition may save Davis tonight.
The most-watched GOP primary in the state is taking place in solidly Republican IL-12. Former State Senator Darren Bailey is challenging incumbent Mike Bost. Bailey, who may benefit from the name recognition he got as the Republican gubernatorial nominee in 2022, is challenging the congressman from his right. Unfortunately for him, however, Trump has endorsed Representative Bost. Besides having the most coveted Republican endorsement, Bost has outraised Bailey and leads in both of the available polls of the race.
Finally, in CA-20, Trump-endorsed Assemblyman Vince Fong is considered the frontrunner for first place in the jungle primary, especially given his first-place finish earlier this month. The special general election will follow on May 21st.
In these competitive primary races, the ideological and rhetorical reputation of the Republican party certainly hangs in the balance. And in the event the Democrat-held seats flip, the makeup of both the party and Congress will certainly change as well.
I make election maps! If you’re reading a Split Ticket article, then odds are you’ve seen one of them. I’m an engineering student at UCLA and electoral politics are a great way for me to exercise creativity away from schoolwork. I also run and love the outdoors!
You can contact me @politicsmaps on Twitter.
My name is Harrison Lavelle and I am a political analyst studying political science and international studies at the College of New Jersey. As a co-founder and partner at Split Ticket, I coordinate our House coverage. I write about a variety of electoral topics and produce political maps. Besides elections, my hobbies include music, history, language, aviation, and fitness.
Contact me at @HWLavelleMaps or harrisonwlavelle1@gmail.com