Each Wednesday we’ll be releasing hypothetical newsletters making use of deeper analysis. We’ve got some pretty amazing model-based pieces planned for the next few weeks, but today we’ll be starting gingerly with a simple what if question: what would the 2020 House Elections have looked like under an R+7 environment.
This alternate perspective is just being posed for fun. There is no serious modeling involved, so the numbers presented here are little more than rough estimates. We are basing our R+7 environmental benchmark on 2010, when the GOP netted 63 House seats. That number is juxtaposed against the real 2020 environment, which we are pegging at D+2 for the sake of clarity. To cap off our crude calculations we took the results of last year’s competitive House races and swung the margins nine points to the right. Assuming the environmental prospects for Democrats remain grim heading into next year, the results we are about to present to you should show what a red wave would look like on the current map. Redistricting is still in progress and there are certainly more finite ways of predicting next year’s result. This is just for fun, so take it with a grain of salt.
Applying these environmental changes to last year’s result gives Republicans 246 seats, with Democrats relegated to just 189 – one short of the 247 seat peak that the GOP reached after the 2014 midterms. The hypothetical shift marks a 49 seat net gain for Republicans. A list of additional flips is provided below.