Category: Uncategorized
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District Rundown: Indiana’s 1st
BACKGROUND Welcome to the seventh edition of District Rundown, Split Ticket’s biweekly House analysis series. The last publication focused on Colorado’s 8th district, a marginal Biden seat that Republicans are now favored to flip. Today’s release brings us to the heart of the Rust Belt to look at another high-stakes GOP target: Indiana’s 1st district. […]
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Oklahoma Governor: What’s Going On
Oklahoma’s governor, Kevin Stitt, is the latest Republican incumbent to suffer electoral headwinds due to caustic rhetoric and policy. Previously, Split Ticket discussed the factors underlying the ratings change for South Dakota’s Kristi Noem. But similar to Noem, Stitt has antagonized a number of key groups, faces a strong Democratic opponent, and suffers from closer-than-expected […]
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Florida, Under The Hood
No state inspires emotionally-charged and heartbreak-filled political discourse quite like Florida does. Democrats have lost every top-ticket race since 2012, often by the thinnest of margins, and in 2020, the vaunted lurch rightward of virtually every major demographic in the state (apart from select groups of suburban college-educated whites) shocked observers. Soon after, Republicans finally […]
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Boston: Melting Pot or Powder Keg?
The political dynamics in the city of Boston have always been highly dependent on ethnocultural coalitions; Irish vs. English, Catholics vs. Protestants, White vs. Nonwhite. The Hub has been home to countless waves of peoples who were making their first stop in America. But often, increased diversity disrupts a delicate balance struck between Boston’s feuding […]
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Media Markets and Gerrymandering
Gerrymandering is one of the most thrown-around words in political discourse. It is applied to every possible concept, regardless of its actual relevance to the topic at hand. Very broadly though, all concepts of the term involve the notion that the playing field is tilted to entrench an advantage for one side, most often with […]
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8/2 Statewide Primary Roundup
Senate ARIZONA In Arizona, Thiel Foundation President Blake Masters comfortably eased to a double-digit victory over businessman Jim Lamon and Mark Brnovich in the GOP Senate primary, and will face off against incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Kelly in the fall. In the continuation of a theme that has been seen in many battleground states in […]
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8/2 Statewide Primary Previews
Senate MISSOURI – 8 EDT For a long time, it looked as if disgraced ex-Governor Eric Greitens was going to be the Republican nominee (and thus the heavy favorite for the November election). However, Attorney General Eric Schmitt has surged of late, with conservatives eager to rally around a less controversial and less scandal-plagued candidate, […]
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Henry Cuellar: The Last Politiquero
Introduction South Texas’s sharp shift in 2020 to the Republican Party surprised many. This region is dominated by working-class Latinos, many of whom are Catholic, forming an overlap of the Texas Democratic Party’s historically strongest demographics. Even in Republican landslides such as Senator John Cornyn’s 2014 rout of David Alameel, South Texas stuck with the […]
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Gubernatorial Ratings Update: 6/1
Michigan In a stunning turn of events, the top three candidates for the GOP gubernatorial nomination were kicked off the ballot for signature fraud, leaving Republicans with a splintered field of underwhelming nominees and an upset primary electorate. The chaos surrounding the fracas has deeply angered many Michigan Republicans, and as a result, not one […]
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Temperature Check: Colorado
The Colorado Democratic and Republican Parties have now concluded the majority of their pre-primary activities, including county and district caucuses and assemblies. Democrats are looking to extend their dominance in the formerly purple Centennial State, while Republicans are trying to win back some ground. Split Ticket examines the races and makes some early predictions below. […]