Category: Uncategorized
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Temperature Check: Colorado
The Colorado Democratic and Republican Parties have now concluded the majority of their pre-primary activities, including county and district caucuses and assemblies. Democrats are looking to extend their dominance in the formerly purple Centennial State, while Republicans are trying to win back some ground. Split Ticket examines the races and… Read More
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TX-34 Special: High GOP Hopes
Introduction What is South Texas? The answer to that question varies from person to person, but most political observers generally agree that a few basic categories distinguish the region from the rest of the state. Before any discussion of the 34th district special election can be had, it is important… Read More
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A Special Election Trio
Introduction & Some History During any primary season, most attention is naturally devoted to the nominating contests that directly affect the November generals. But special elections, owing to their rarity and oddness, tend steal the spotlight when they occur a few times each year. Part of the attention stems from… Read More
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Is Electability Real?
One of the biggest flashpoints in the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries was the notion of electability. Candidate after candidate was assessed by primary voters on the basis of who would be most likely to win the general election against Donald Trump, and entire campaigns floundered or surged around their answers… Read More
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Colorado Front Range Roundup
A lot has happened in Colorado politics since our last update – notably the retirement of 7th District Rep. Ed Perlmutter. This article will spell out the latest updates and offer some insights as to what the fall may bring, specifically in Congressional Districts 7 and 8. District 7 –… Read More
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Moderation and Electoral Overperformance
The oldest debate in electoral politics is between moderation and idealism. Some say that parties need to nominate ideologically-aligned candidates who can fire up the base; in theory, they claim, this would engage more low-propensity voters and drive up turnout, overwhelming the opposition through a surge of new voters. Others… Read More
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Ticket-Splitting Voters Are Disappearing — Which Makes Them Even More Valuable
The following article was written by Split Ticket Partners Lakshya Jain and Harrison Lavelle for The Bulwark on January 25 and is being reposted here with the permission of The Bulwark. On November 4, 2020, Rep. Collin Peterson—the maverick, conservative Democrat from western Minnesota—was nowhere to be found for a… Read More
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House Crossover Voting: 2020
Intro When we last looked at different partisan outcomes resulting from split-ticket voting, the Senate was our focus. To yield a worthwhile R2 value we compared Republican vote share between Presidential and Senate candidates. (Analyzing margin alone can be deceiving) The mathematical conclusion derived from our findings was clear: top-line… Read More
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Changing Times, Changing Coalitions: A Look at Six Midwestern Congressional Districts
Changing Times, Changing Coalitions: A Look at Six Midwestern Congressional Districts The Midwest is one of the most fascinating regions of the United States for any election analyst to study. Largely white and working class, it is a hardened American echelon that seems to have undergone more loss and struggle… Read More