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The Split Ticket Congressional Voting Index (CVI) is our in-house metric that estimates the partisanship of a district at the congressional level, relative to the nation, after controlling for candidate quality and incumbent strength. We consider candidate-independent 2022 district estimates from our Wins Above Replacement model, the district-level leans from the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, and a district’s Trend Score.
Total Districts By Category
These are the incumbents who currently occupy a district which is more friendly to the opposite party than their own, according to our partisanship estimates.
Split Ticket’s Congressional Voting Index (CVI) groups all 435 House seats into one of seven categories based on calculated partisanship. This tool is designed to contextualize the competitive House playing field as we prepare our preliminary 2024 ratings. You can read more about the methodology here.
(CVI designed by Harrison Lavelle, with assistance from Lakshya Jain)
The CVI was updated on January 22nd, 2023 to reflect changes to the 2022 WAR model.