Split Ticket

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Our 2020 House wins-above-replacement (WAR) model showed that spending still matters in American politics. Among other things, the new 2022 edition proves that candidate quality, or the lack thereof, can fundamentally impact competitive races.

Controversial contenders paid a bigger penalty across the board this cycle than they did in 2020. In many cases, as 2022’s statewide elections showed, Republicans tended to nominate weaker candidates than Democrats did — perhaps a byproduct of former President Trump’s continuing influence in GOP primaries.

We’ve already examined candidate quality’s impact on senatorial, gubernatorial, and Secretary of State races. Now we’re turning our attention to the recent House of Representative elections to analyze candidate effects in more detail. Namely, how strong was each candidate relative to his or her opposition? How much did the result in any given district differ from the performance that a generic slate of nominees would have been expected to produce?

Methodology

Our wins-above-replacement metric provides a quantifiable “score” for each district that displays whether the Republican or Democrat performed better relative to data-based expectations. During the design process, our goal was to account for candidate-independent factors intrinsic to every district and the national environment.

We started by controlling for each seat’s racial composition. This was essential given both the strong correlation race has with partisanship and differing electoral patterns observed among distinct demographic groups nationwide. Next, we controlled for district partisanships in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, yielding a good measure of overall lean and expected down-ballot lag.

We then controlled for the midterm shift that districts’ states experienced. As we have previously covered, individual states experienced different environments this year. New York and Florida had massive red waves, whereas Michigan and Colorado swung leftward despite President Biden’s low midterm approval ratings. With this in mind, a Colorado Democrat outrunning Biden seems a lot less impressive than a Democrat in New York City or Florida doing so. Any model quantifying candidate strength should deal with this accordingly.

Lastly, we controlled for a couple of election-specific factors, such as incumbency and money spent by candidates and outside committees. While money’s impact has been declining of late, it still matters, as our 2018 and 2020 models showed.

By accounting for all of these factors, we crafted a measure of candidate strength that answers a simple question: how big was the candidate quality differential on a per-seat basis?

Authors’ Note: We urge appropriate caution when using this metric. Similar to baseball’s wins-above-replacement metric, our model is not granular enough to split candidates by a quarter of a point. It is impossible, for example, to use this metric to determine whether Pat Ryan, whose WAR in NY-18 was D+2.5, was a stronger candidate than Susan Wild, whose WAR in PA-07 was D+2.2. That said, we can use our tool to conclude that both were probably stronger candidates than Eric Sorensen, whose WAR was D+0.7 in IL-17.

ANALYSIS

Democrats Overperformed in Battleground Districts

One key question many observers had in the wake of the 2022 election cycle was whether swing seat Democrats overperformed more than swing seat Republicans. The evidence we have indicates that was the case.

We classify districts as battlegrounds if they voted within 10 points of the nation in 2020, or have an opposite party incumbent despite lying outside of this partisanship range. (In TX-34 we factored in both incumbents). Of the 82 House districts in the battleground category, Democrats overperformed in 46 compared to the Republicans’ 34 ー a stark reinforcement of the candidate quality points discussed above.

The evidence suggests Republicans’ 222-213 House majority is also slightly smaller than it could have and should have been with better nominees, giving Democrats an easier path to winning back the House in 2024 even with expected redistricting in North Carolina and Ohio. In other words, the GOP has a candidate problem where it counts the most: swing districts. Even if Republicans had had a better national environment on Nov. 8, candidate effects likely still would have limited their majority.

Democrats Probably Won More House Seats Than They Should Have

By numerically quantifying underperformance, the WAR model allows us to estimate which House races would have had different outcomes if “generic pairs” of Republican and Democratic candidates had been nominated. For example, which Democratic-won seats would have flipped Republican with a more standardized set of nominees? Our conclusions suggest that along with their disproportionate battleground nominee strength, Democrats won one more seat in 2022 than they would have with generic nominee pairs.

The table above also indicates that the GOP had a bigger candidate quality problem than Democrats did. Of the 15 House seats that our findings suggest would have voted differently had generic nominees been on the ballot, a majority (9) ended up in the Democratic column.

A look at the campaigns waged in some of the districts mentioned shows exactly why this was the case. In OH-09 and AK-AL, both Trump-won districts, Democrats Marcy Kaptur and Mary Peltola won comfortably thanks both to low-quality opponents and their compelling personal brands.

Kaptur has served in Congress since 1983 and enjoys strong union connections in a working class, traditionally-Democratic seat. Her challenger, J.R. Majewski, beat two credible state legislators in the GOP primary despite never having held elected office. National Republicans later cut Majewski off from their spending apparatus after allegations surfaced that he misconstrued his military service record.

Peltola, who won a stunning upset in an August special election to replace the late House Dean Don Young, managed to establish a reliable brand much faster, exemplified by her “fish, family, freedom” slogan. Former Governor Sarah Palin, whom Peltola beat in two instant-runoffs, suffered from high unfavorability ratings and a string of controversies dating back to her 2008 Republican Vice Presidential nomination.

Ranked-choice voting undoubtedly enabled Peltola’s initial election in August, but the scale of her recent victory for a full term suggests that she likely would have won under the conventional system too. Pre-election polls showed her beating both Begich and Palin in head-to-heads.

Strong Democratic incumbents like Jared Golden (ME-02) and Matt Cartwright (PA-08) benefitted from the same dynamic in Republican-trending, Trump-won seats. Challengers Bruce Poliquin and Jim Bognet were more conventional candidates, but the GOP would have needed some extraordinary recruits to flip both districts.

Republicans Bo Hines and Joe Kent also cost the GOP two open seats: NC-13, and WA-03. The first one, based primarily in the suburbs Raleigh, marginally backed Biden in 2020 and comfortably elected experienced state legislator Wiley Nickel this cycle. Despite his relative youth and inexperience, Hines probably suffered most among swing voters because of their strong ties to Trump.

The second district, a historically-inelastic Trump +4 seat in southwestern Washington, wouldn’t have been that competitive without the former President’s influence. Moderate Republican Jaime Herrera-Beutler lost the jungle primary to far-right challenger Joe Kent and Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez after voting to impeach Trump following January 6th. Gluesenkamp Perez eventually pulled off an upset in a race that Kent had been favored to win despite his controversial bid.

Henry Cuellar, a long-time Democratic incumbent and top overperformer, is not on the above list because TX-28, though Republican-trending, still broke for Biden by 7 points. In other words, a generic Democrat would have been expected to hold onto the seat. Only Cuellar could have won by 13, though, a sign that his Politiquero pedigree continues to hold weight in South Texas.

Zapata County (Trump +5), for instance, supported Cuellar by 46 while maintaining near presidential turnout. Strengthened by his Catholic background and social conservatism, Cuellar’s regional pull overshadowed an FBI investigation into accusations of illicit dealings with Azerbaijan and delivered him a cakewalk victory against otherwise-credible Republican Cassy Garcia.

Similar candidate quality dynamics also helped victorious Republicans, though to a lesser extent. All six of the seats Democrats would have been expected to win under generic conditions are within the states of New York, California, and Oregon ー each of which lurched significantly rightward between 2020 and 2022.

In the Golden State, Republicans Mike Garcia (CA-27) and David Valadao (CA-22) maximized crossover appeal to win reelection in double-digit Biden seats made bluer in redistricting. Democrats simply did not get the challengers that they needed to match such formidable opposition. Meanwhile, in the east, a similarly strong incumbent was moderate Republican Brian Fitzpatrick, who retained his Biden +5 PA-01 at a canter, despite our model suggesting that his seat should have flipped in what was an exceptionally tough cycle for Pennsylvania Republicans. Even if the national environment is bluer in 2024 (a presidential cycle), national Republicans worried about their House majority may take solace in the strength of Garcia, Fitzpatrick and Valadao.

Our most surprising finding is perhaps NY-17, which DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney narrowly lost to challenger Mike Lawler. This Biden +10 seat, primarily based in Westchester County, divides New York City and Upstate New York. Republicans invested heavily in the 17th to take down Maloney, a historically strong incumbent with leadership status.

In the wake of his loss, the ex-congressman blamed Governor Kathy Hochul’s underperformance for his defeat. While this certainly contributed to his loss, our model suggests that a generic Democratic incumbent still should have beaten a standard Republican; the WAR score for NY-17 was R+2.7, and the seat was decided by just 0.6%. It is difficult to subjectively determine how much of the outcome depended on Lawler’s strengths or Maloney’s weaknesses, but there are indications that the incumbent’s own choices may have cost him reelection.

Maloney’s biggest faux pas was deciding to run in NY-17, which overlapped with just 25% of his original seat. His move pushed out fellow congressman Mondaire Jones, fueling bad blood among new constituents and lessening the benefits incumbents normally accrue from district ties. Unwise in any situation, taking on new turf proved especially dangerous this cycle given New York’s palpable rightward shift.

The DCCC Chair’s past victories established his reputation as a strong incumbent, an accolade confirmed by his D+6.4 wins-above-replacement score from 2020. Switching districts ultimately had a negative impact on his crossover potential. Had Maloney stayed in NY-18 (Biden +8) he probably would have held on, a possibility confirmed by Pat Ryan’s victory in the same seat in November.

Extreme Candidates Likely Paid An Electoral Penalty

Our district findings do indeed suggest that “extremist” candidates often struggle to consolidate support, especially in swing districts where persuadable voters can mean the difference between close races and blowouts. Four of the worst performing Democratic and Republican incumbents of 2022 could be classified as “fringe” members: Cori Bush (MO-01), Ilhan Omar (MN-05), Majorie Taylor Greene (GA-14) and Lauren Boebert (CO-03).

Bush and Omar, representing the St. Louis and Minneapolis-St. Paul metros, respectively, are among the House’s most progressive members — referred to as “the squad”. Greene serves rural northwestern Georgia and Boebert Colorado’s Western Slope.

Of these four representatives, three also underperformed according to the 2020 WAR model (with Cori Bush being the lone exception). This is hardly surprising, considering Split Ticket’s prior discovery that extreme candidates tend to pay electoral penalties, an ideological quandary we plan on analyzing in a followup article.

Omar, for example, ran behind Biden more than any other incumbent Democrat in 2020 (-17.3), nearly lost her last primary, and underperformed by 9.1 points in 2022. Unlike swing district underperformers, though, Omar will have no issues winning future reelections in her Biden +64 seat as long as she secures the Democratic nomination — a glaring uncertainty at best.

Boebert, meanwhile, proved that a mixture of poor candidate quality and a hostile political environment can endanger competitive seats — even when they have a decided lean toward one party. CO-03, her Trump +8 district, did vote for Governor Jared Polis, but it is hard to argue that a mainstream incumbent like Scott Tipton, whom Boebert beat in the 2020 primary, wouldn’t have won by more than 546 votes. In other words, her win was extremely underwhelming by any standard, even after accounting for the awful night that Colorado Republicans had.

Conclusion

If there was ever an environment or a cycle to remind us that candidate quality was still important, then 2022 was probably it. Across every major office and chamber, one thing was clear: candidate quality mattered, and it mattered enough to change the results of several races.

In hindsight, this is not a surprise, even with the acceleration of polarization. Voters are not robots, and the electorate responds negatively against candidates who are viewed as out of step, disconnected, or extreme, just as they still respond positively to good candidates who work for all constituents.

It is still possible to reach voters on the other side and in the middle while still turning out your own base. It is what many strong candidates do, and it is how several elections were won in this cycle. Our model is just one way of quantifying a candidate’s strength, but it is, to our knowledge, currently the only such metric out there. We hope that you find it informative in learning about how candidates performed and how and where elections were won and lost.

Searchable Table

This table is best viewed on desktop, where it is searchable and paginated. For an optimal mobile view, see the interactive version, which can be found here.

Rank	District	Democrat	Republican	WAR
1	NY-09	Yvette Clarke	Menachem Raitport (C)	D +20.6
2	AK-AL	Mary Peltola	Sarah Palin	D +18.0
3	HI-01	Ed Case	Conrad Kress	D +17.5
4	OH-09	Marcy Kaptur	JR Majewski	D +14.8
5	ND-AL	Cara Mund (I)	Kelly Armstrong	D +14.5
6	NJ-08	Rob Menendez	Marcos Arroyo	D +11.3
7	NY-26	Brian Higgins	Steven Sams	D +11.2
8	TX-28	Henry Cuellar	Cassy Garcia	D +11.1
9	TX-29	Sylvia Garcia	Robert Schafranek	D +10.3
10	FL-01	Rebekah Jones	Matt Gaetz	D +10.2
11	GA-14	Marcus Flowers	Marjorie Taylor Greene	D +10.2
12	CO-03	Adam Frisch	Lauren Boebert	D +10.1
13	TX-20	Joaquin Castro	Kyle Sinclair	D +9.2
14	CT-02	Joe Courtney	Mike France	D +9.1
15	PA-02	Brendan Boyle	Aaron Bashir	D +8.9
16	LA-02	Troy Carter	Dan Lux	D +8.7
17	NY-07	Nydia Velazquez	Juan Pagan	D +8.5
18	WV-02	Barry Lee Wendell	Alex Mooney	D +8.4
19	FL-13	Eric Lynn	Anna Paulina Luna	D +8.0
20	ME-02	Jared Golden	Bruce Poliquin	D +7.5
21	NY-10	Dan Goldman	Benine Hamdan	D +7.4
22	TX-37	Lloyd Doggett	Jenny Garcia Sharon	D +7.3
23	NY-06	Grace Meng	Thomas Zmich	D +7.1
24	UT-04	Darlene McDonald	Burgess Owens	D +7.0
25	MD-01	Heather Mizeur	Andy Harris	D +6.4
26	KS-03	Sharice Davids	Amanda Adkins	D +6.2
27	NY-15	Ritchie Torres	Stylo Sapaskis	D +6.1
28	MT-01	Monica Tranel	Ryan Zinke	D +6.0
29	TX-09	Al Green	Jimmy Leon	D +6.0
30	NY-21	Matt Castelli	Elise Stefanik	D +5.9
31	MI-08	Dan Kildee	Paul Junge	D +5.9
32	CA-41	Will Rollins	Ken Calvert	D +5.8
33	MI-03	Hillary Scholten	John Gibbs	D +5.6
34	LA-01	Katie Darling	Steve Sclaise	D +5.4
35	GA-13	David Scott	Caesar Gonzales	D +5.4
36	NJ-01	Donald Norcross	Claire Gustafson	D +5.4
37	NJ-11	Mikie Sherrill	Paul DeGroot	D +5.2
38	NC-13	Wiley Nickel	Bo Hines	D +5.2
39	IN-06	Cinde Wirth	Greg Pence	D +5.1
40	WA-03	Marie Gluesenkamp Perez	Joe Kent	D +5.1
41	PA-08	Matt Cartwright	Jim Bognet	D +5.1
42	TX-13	Kathleen Brown	Ronny Jackson	D +5.1
43	OH-13	Emilia Sykes	Madison Gesiotto	D +5.0
44	TX-35	Greg Casar	Dan McQueen	D +5.0
45	SC-01	Annie Andrews	Nancy Mace	D +4.6
46	TN-06	Randal Cooper	John Rose	D +4.4
47	IL-13	Nikki Budzinski	Regan Deering	D +4.3
48	FL-24	Frederica Wilson	Jesus Navarro	D +4.3
49	KY-03	Morgan McGarvey	Stuart Ray	D +4.2
50	TX-32	Colin Allred	Antonio Swad	D +4.2
51	CA-28	Judy Chu	Wes Hallman	D +4.2
52	TX-21	Claudia Zapata	Chip Roy	D +4.2
53	AZ-03	Ruben Gallego	Jeff Zink	D +4.1
54	NY-19	Josh Riley	Marc Molinaro	D +4.0
55	TX-27	Maclovio Perez	Michael Cloud	D +4.0
56	AZ-05	Javier Ramos	Andy Biggs	D +4.0
57	CA-25	Raul Ruiz	Brian Hawkins	D +3.8
58	CA-12	Barbara Lee	Stephen Slauson	D +3.8
59	PA-16	Dan Pastore	Mike Kelly	D +3.8
60	TX-24	Jan Mcdowell	Beth Van Duyne	D +3.7
61	OH-04	Tamie Wilson	Jim Jordan	D +3.6
62	TX-02	Robin Fulford	Dan Crenshaw	D +3.5
63	MD-04	Glenn Ivey	Jeff Warner	D +3.5
64	TX-30	Jasmine Crockett	James Rodgers	D +3.5
65	CA-07	Doris Matsui	Max Semenenko	D +3.4
66	MA-08	Stephen Lynch	Robert Burke	D +3.4
67	MO-03	Bethany Mann	Blaine Luetkemeyer	D +3.4
68	CA-48	Stephen Houlahan	Darrell Issa	D +3.4
69	WV-01	Lacy Watson	Carol Miller	D +3.3
70	TN-05	Heidi Campbell	Andy Ogles	D +3.2
71	VA-01	Herb Jones	Rob Wittman	D +3.2
72	IN-08	Ray McCormick	Larry Bucshon	D +3.1
73	AZ-06	Kirsten Engel	Juan Ciscomani	D +3.1
74	NJ-03	Andy Kim	Bob Healey Jr.	D +3.1
75	MI-10	Carl Marlinga	John James	D +3.0
76	FL-14	Kathy Castor	James Judge	D +3.0
77	NV-03	Susie Lee	April Becker	D +2.9
78	CA-01	Max Steiner	Doug LaMalfa	D +2.9
79	ID-02	Wendy Norman	Mike Simpson	D +2.9
80	MI-07	Elissa Slotkin	Tom Barrett	D +2.8
81	IL-09	Jan Schakowsky	Max Rice	D +2.8
82	KS-02	Patrick Schmidt	Jake LaTurner	D +2.7
83	OK-04	Mary Brannon	Tom Cole	D +2.7
84	IA-01	Christina Bohannan	Mariannette Miller-Meeks	D +2.7
85	TX-18	Sheila Jackson Lee	Carmen Maria Montiel	D +2.7
86	FL-03	Danielle Hawk	Kat Cammack	D +2.6
87	AZ-01	Jevin Hodge	David Schweikert	D +2.6
88	FL-07	Karen Green	Cory Mills	D +2.6
89	CA-20	Marisa Wood	Kevin McCarthy	D +2.6
90	IA-03	Cindy Axne	Zach Nunn	D +2.6
91	NY-18	Pat Ryan	Colin Schmitt	D +2.5
92	IL-05	Mike Quigley	Tommy Hanson	D +2.5
93	TX-07	Lizzie Fletcher	Johnny Teague	D +2.5
94	NV-01	Dina Titus	Mark Robertson	D +2.4
95	AZ-04	Greg Stanton	Kelly Cooper	D +2.4
96	TX-36	Jon Haire	Brian Babin	D +2.4
97	PA-11	Bob Hollister	Lloyd Smucker	D +2.3
98	RI-01	David Cicillline	Allen Waters	D +2.3
99	PA-10	Shamaine Daniels	Scott Perry	D +2.3
100	IA-02	Liz Mathis	Ashley Hinson	D +2.3
101	FL-22	Lois Frankel	Daniel Franzese	D +2.3
102	NM-03	Teresa Leger Fernandez	Alexis Martinez Johnson	D +2.3
103	PA-07	Susan Wild	Lisa Scheller	D +2.2
104	TX-05	Tartisha Hill	Lance Gooden	D +2.2
105	CA-08	John Garamendi	Rudy Recile	D +2.2
106	IN-05	Jeannine Lee Lake	Victoria Spartz	D +2.2
107	PA-04	Madeleine Dean	Christian Nascimento	D +2.2
108	MI-06	Debbie Dingell	Whittney Williams	D +2.2
109	MO-08	Randi McCallian	Jason Smith	D +2.2
110	FL-12	Kimberly Walker	Gus Bilirakis	D +2.2
111	GA-04	Hank Johnson	Jonathan Chavez	D +2.1
112	KY-04	Matt Lehman	Thomas Massie	D +2.1
113	MN-01	Jeff Ettinger	Brad Finstad	D +2.1
114	TX-33	Marc Veasey	Patrick Gillespie	D +2.1
115	NJ-05	Josh Gottheimer	Frank Pallotta	D +2.1
116	VA-07	Abigail Spanberger	Yesli Vega	D +2.0
117	OH-07	Matthew Diemer	Max Miller	D +2.0
118	CA-52	Juan Vargas	Tyler Geffeney	D +2.0
119	WI-03	Brad Pfaff	Derrick Van Orden	D +2.0
120	CA-09	Josh Harder	Tom Patti	D +2.0
121	FL-02	Al Lawson	Neal Dunn	D +2.0
122	MO-02	Trish Gunby	Ann Wagner	D +2.0
123	NC-11	Jasmine Beach-Ferrera	Chuck Edwards	D +1.9
124	MD-07	Kweisi Mfume	Scott Collier	D +1.9
125	TN-01	Cameron Parsons	Diana Harshbarger	D +1.8
126	PA-09	Amanda Waldman	Dan Meuser	D +1.8
127	PA-17	Chris Deluzio	Jeremy Shaffer	D +1.7
128	NC-07	Charles Graham	David Rouzer	D +1.7
129	NY-22	Francis Conole	Brandon Williams	D +1.7
130	MI-02	Jerry Hilliard	John Moolenaar	D +1.6
131	TX-15	Michelle Vallejo	Monica De La Cruz	D +1.6
132	VT-AL	Becca Balint	Liam Madden	D +1.6
133	CA-02	Jared Huffman	Douglas Brower	D +1.5
134	NC-09	Ben Clark	Richard Hudson	D +1.5
135	TN-07	Odessa Kelly	Mark Green	D +1.4
136	NC-14	Jeff Jackson	Pat Harrigan	D +1.4
137	CA-36	Ted Lieu	Joe Collins III	D +1.4
138	FL-25	Debbie Wasserman Schultz	Carla Spalding	D +1.4
139	WY-AL	Lynnette Grey Bull	Harriet Hageman	D +1.3
140	AR-03	Lauren Mallett-Hays	Steve Womack	D +1.3
141	NJ-06	Frank Pallone	Sue Kiley	D +1.3
142	WI-02	Mark Pocan	Erik Olsen	D +1.3
143	VA-09	Taysha DeVaughan	Morgan Griffith	D +1.3
144	OH-01	Greg Landsman	Steve Chabot	D +1.3
145	FL-08	Joanne Terry	Bill Posey	D +1.3
146	TN-09	Steve Cohen	Charlotte Bergmann	D +1.2
147	FL-23	Jared Moskowitz	Joe Budd	D +1.2
148	CA-04	Mike Thompson	Matt Brock	D +1.2
149	MI-13	Shri Thanedar	Martell Bivings	D +1.2
150	OK-05	Joshua Harris-Till	Stephanie Bice	D +1.2
151	FL-27	Annette Taddeo	Maria Elvira Salazar	D +1.2
152	MA-02	Jim McGovern	Jeffrey Sossa-Paquette	D +1.2
153	GA-09	Mike Ford	Andrew Clyde	D +1.1
154	PA-15	Mike Molesevich	Glenn Thompson	D +1.1
155	CA-44	Nanette Barragan	Paul Jones	D +1.1
156	SC-02	Judd Larkins	Joe Wilson	D +1.1
157	CA-19	Jimmy Panetta	Jeff Gorman	D +1.1
158	FL-17	Andrea Kale	Greg Steube	D +1.1
159	NC-05	Kyle Parrish	Virginia Foxx	D +1.1
160	NC-02	Deborah Ross	Christine Villaverde	D +1.1
161	IN-09	Matthew Fyfe	Erin Houchin	D +1.0
162	PA-06	Chrissy Houlahan	Guy Ciarrocchi	D +1.0
163	GA-01	Wade Herring	Buddy Carter	D +1.0
164	NJ-10	Donald Payne Jr.	David Pinckney	D +1.0
165	TN-02	Mark Harmon	Tim Burchett	D +0.9
166	FL-20	Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick	Drew-Montez Clark	D +0.9
167	UT-02	Nick Mitchell	Chris Stewart	D +0.9
168	NE-01	Patty Pansing Brooks	Mike Flood	D +0.9
169	CA-03	Kermit Jones	Kevin Kiley	D +0.8
170	GA-03	Val Almond	Drew Ferguson	D +0.8
171	CO-07	Brittany Pettersen	Erik Aadland	D +0.8
172	AR-01	Monte Hodges	Rick Crawford	D +0.8
173	CA-32	Brad Sherman	Lucie Volotzky	D +0.8
174	IL-17	Eric Sorensen	Esther Joy King	D +0.7
175	TX-10	Linda Nuno	Michae McCaul	D +0.7
176	CA-51	Sara Jacobs	Stan Caplan	D +0.7
177	NV-04	Steven Horsford	Sam Peters	D +0.6
178	MD-08	Jamie Raskin	Gregory Coll	D +0.6
179	TX-34	Vicente Gonzalez	Mayra Flores	D +0.6
180	NC-04	Valerie Foushee	Courtney Geels	D +0.6
181	VA-06	Jennifer Lewis	Ben Cline	D +0.6
182	IN-03	Gary Snyder	Jim Banks	D +0.5
183	FL-19	Cindy Banyai	Byron Donalds	D +0.4
184	TX-12	Trey Hunt	Kay Granger	D +0.4
185	MI-11	Haley Stevens	Mark Ambrose	D +0.4
186	NY-12	Jerry Nadler	Michael Zumbluskas	D +0.4
187	MN-06	Jeanne Hendricks	Tom Emmer	D +0.4
188	FL-16	Jan Schneider	Vern Buchanan	D +0.4
189	TX-22	Jamie Jordan	Troy Nehls	D +0.4
190	IL-11	Bill Foster	Cataline Lauf	D +0.3
191	CA-45	Jay Chen	Michelle Steel	D +0.3
192	TX-38	Duncan Klussmann	Wesley Hunt	D +0.2
193	AL-07	Terri Sewell	Beatrice Nichols	D +0.2
194	NC-10	Pam Genant	Patrick McHenry	D +0.2
195	GA-02	Sanford Bishop	Chris West	D +0.1
196	NH-01	Chris Pappas	Karoline Leavitt	D +0.1
197	TN-03	Meg Gorman	Chuck Fleischmann	D +0.1
198	MA-03	Lori Trahan	Dean Tran	D +0.0
199	IN-01	Frank Mrvan	Jennfier-Ruth Green	D +0.0
200	OR-04	Val Hoyle	Alek Skarlatos	R +0.0
201	IL-10	Brad Schneider	Joseph Severino	R +0.1
202	GA-10	Tabitha Johnson-Green	Mike Collins	R +0.1
203	TX-23	John Lira	Tony Gonzales	R +0.1
204	CO-01	Diana DeGette	Jennier Qualteri	R +0.1
205	KS-04	Bob Hernandez	Ron Estes	R +0.1
206	TX-17	Mary Jo Woods	Pete Sessions	R +0.1
207	OK-02	Naomi Andrews	Josh Brecheen	R +0.1
208	GA-05	Nikema Williams	Christian Zimm	R +0.1
209	OH-02	Samantha Meadows	Brad Wenstrup	R +0.1
210	MI-09	Brian Jaye	Lisa McClain	R +0.1
211	WI-04	Gwen Moore	Tim Rogers	R +0.2
212	OR-03	Earl Blumenauer	Joanna Harbour	R +0.2
213	IL-06	Sean Casten	Keith Pekau	R +0.2
214	FL-04	LaShonda Holloway	Aaron Bean	R +0.2
215	FL-09	Darren Soto	Scotty Moore	R +0.3
216	IL-15	Paul Lange	Mary Miller	R +0.3
217	KY-02	Hank Linderman	Brett Guthrie	R +0.3
218	MN-02	Angie Craig	Tyler Kistner	R +0.4
219	WA-06	Derek Kilmer	Elizabeth Kreiselmaier	R +0.4
220	NC-08	Scott Huffman	Dan Bishop	R +0.4
221	IN-04	Roger Day	Jim Baird	R +0.4
222	AZ-02	Tom O’Halleran	Eli Crane	R +0.4
223	NY-20	Paul Tonko	Liz Joy	R +0.4
224	IL-08	Raja Krishnamoorthi	Chris Dargis	R +0.5
225	NY-01	Bridget Fleming	Nick LaLota	R +0.5
226	MN-08	Jennifer Schultz	Pete Stauber	R +0.5
227	IL-03	Delia Ramirez	Justin Burau	R +0.5
228	VA-03	Bobby Scott	Terry Namkung	R +0.5
229	MD-06	David Trone	Neil Parrott	R +0.5
230	VA-05	Joshua Throneburg	Bob Good	R +0.7
231	NY-24	Steve Holden	Claudia Tenney	R +0.7
232	WA-08	Kim Schrier	Matt Larkin	R +0.8
233	KY-05	Conor Halbleib	Hal Rogers	R +0.8
234	CA-05	MIke Barkley	Tom McClintock	R +0.8
235	TX-04	Iro Omere	Pat Fallon	R +0.8
236	ME-01	Chellie Pingree	Ed Thelander	R +0.8
237	MN-03	Dean Phillips	Tom Weiler	R +0.9
238	CA-49	Mike Levin	Brian Maryott	R +0.9
239	HI-02	Jill Tokuda	Joe Akana	R +0.9
240	CO-02	Joe Neguse	Marshall Dawson	R +1.0
241	NJ-12	Bonnie Watson Coleman	Darius Mayfield	R +1.0
242	GA-07	Lucy McBath	Mark Gonsalves	R +1.0
243	MO-05	Emanuel Cleaver	Jacob Turk	R +1.0
244	MA-01	Richard Neal	Dean Martilli	R +1.1
245	MO-06	Henry Martin	Sam Graves	R +1.1
246	CA-17	Ro Khanna	Ritesh Tandon	R +1.1
247	TX-08	Laura Jones	Morgan Luttrell	R +1.1
248	MO-07	Kristen Radaker-Sheafer	Eric Burlison	R +1.1
249	OR-01	Suzanne Bonamici	Christopher Mann	R +1.1
250	CA-42	Robert Garcia	John Briscoe	R +1.2
251	MA-06	Seth Moulton	Bob May	R +1.2
252	FL-15	Alan Cohn	Laurel Lee	R +1.2
253	NJ-07	Tom Malinowski	Tom Kean Jr.	R +1.2
254	OK-03	Jeremiah Ross	Frank Lucas	R +1.2
255	NM-02	Gabe Vasquez	Yvette Herrell	R +1.3
256	OH-15	Gary Josephson	Mike Carey	R +1.3
257	KY-01	Jimmy Ausbrooks	James Comer	R +1.3
258	OH-08	Vanessa Enoch	Warren Davidson	R +1.3
259	CT-01	John Larson	Larry Lazor	R +1.3
260	CO-05	David Torres	Doug Lamborn	R +1.3
261	IL-12	Chip Markel	Mike Bost	R +1.4
262	NY-05	Gregory Meeks	Paul King	R +1.4
263	MA-09	Bill Keating	Jesse Brown	R +1.4
264	SC-05	Evangeline Hundley	Ralph Norman	R +1.5
265	CT-03	Rosa DeLauro	Lesley DeNardis	R +1.5
266	NY-11	Max Rose	Nicole Malliotakis	R +1.5
267	MS-02	Bennie Thompson	Brain Flowers	R +1.5
268	WI-07	Richard Ausman	Tom Tiffany	R +1.5
269	AR-04	John White	Bruce Westerman	R +1.6
270	VA-02	Elaine Luria	Jen Kiggans	R +1.6
271	FL-10	Maxwell Frost	Calvin Wimbish	R +1.6
272	MI-05	Bart Goldberg	Tim Walberg	R +1.6
273	MD-02	Dutch Ruppersberger	Nicolee Ambrose	R +1.6
274	OK-01	Adam Martin	Kevin Hern	R +1.7
275	MA-07	Ayanna Pressley	Donnie Palmer	R +1.7
276	PA-05	Mary Gay Scanlon	David Galluch	R +1.7
277	WI-05	Mike Van Someren	Scott Fitzgerald	R +1.7
278	FL-21	Corinna Balderramos Robinson	Brian Mast	R +1.7
279	TN-04	Wayne Steele	Scott DesJarlais	R +1.8
280	NY-14	Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	Tina Forte	R +1.8
281	CA-46	Lou Correa	Christopher Gonzales	R +1.8
282	GA-11	Antonio Daza	Barry Loudermilk	R +1.8
283	NH-02	Annie Kuster	Robert Burns	R +1.8
284	NV-02	Elizabeth Krause	Mark Amodei	R +1.9
285	ID-01	Kaylee Peterson	Russ Fulcher	R +2.0
286	NC-01	Don Davis	Sandy Smith	R +2.0
287	WA-09	Adam Smith	Doug Basler	R +2.0
288	OH-05	Craig Swartz	Bob Latta	R +2.1
289	MN-04	Betty McCollum	May Lor Xiong	R +2.1
290	AZ-07	Raul Grijalva	Luis Pozzolo	R +2.1
291	NY-08	Hakeem Jeffries	Yuri Dashevsky	R +2.1
292	AL-04	Rick Neighbors	Robert Aderholt	R +2.2
293	TX-14	Mikal Williams	Randy Weber	R +2.2
294	CA-43	Maxine Waters	Omar Navarro	R +2.2
295	CA-06	Ami Bera	Tamika Hamilton	R +2.2
296	NE-02	Tony Vargas	Don Bacon	R +2.3
297	AL-02	Phyllis Harvey-Hall	Barry Moore	R +2.3
298	NC-03	Barbara Gaskins	Greg Murphy	R +2.3
299	CO-06	Jason Crow	Steven Monahan	R +2.3
300	VA-04	Donald McEachin	Leon Benjamin	R +2.3
301	FL-11	Shante Munns	Daniel Webster	R +2.3
302	KS-01	Jimmy Beard	Tracey Mann	R +2.4
303	CA-47	Katie Porter	Scott Baugh	R +2.4
304	NC-12	Alma Adams	Tyler Lee	R +2.4
305	IL-14	Lauren Underwood	Scott Gryder	R +2.4
306	GA-12	Liz Johnson	Rick Allen	R +2.5
307	GA-08	Darrius Butler	Austin Scott	R +2.5
308	IN-07	Andre Carson	Angela Grabovsky	R +2.5
309	VA-08	Don Beyer	Karina Lipsman	R +2.5
310	CO-08	Yadira Caraveo	Barbara Kirkmeyer	R +2.5
311	NY-17	Sean Patrick Maloney	Mike Lawler	R +2.7
312	GA-06	Bob Christian	Rich McCormick	R +2.7
313	TX-03	Sandeep Srivastava	Keith Self	R +2.7
314	MI-01	Bob Lorinser	Jack Bergman	R +2.7
315	MI-04	Joseph Alfonso	Bill Huizenga	R +2.7
316	NJ-09	Bill Pascrell	Billy Prempeh	R +2.7
317	MS-04	Johnny DuPree	Mike Ezell	R +2.8
318	MN-07	Jill Abahsain	Michelle Fischbach	R +2.8
319	AR-02	Quintessa Hathaway	French Hill	R +2.9
320	WI-01	Ann Roe	Bryan Steil	R +2.9
321	NC-06	Kathy Manning	Christian Castelli	R +2.9
322	OH-11	Shontel Brown	Eric Brewer	R +2.9
323	CO-04	Ike McCorkle	Ken Buck	R +3.0
324	NY-23	Max Della Pia	Nick Langworthy	R +3.0
325	RI-02	Seth Magaziner	Allan Fung	R +3.0
326	CA-23	Derek Marshall	Jay Odernolte	R +3.1
327	OH-12	Amy Rippel-Elton	Troy Balderson	R +3.1
328	MS-01	Dianne Black	Trent Kelly	R +3.1
329	OR-02	Joe Yetter	Cliff Bentz	R +3.1
330	UT-01	Rick Jones	Blake Moore	R +3.2
331	OH-06	Louis Lyras	Bill Johnson	R +3.2
332	IL-04	Chuy Garcia	James Falakos	R +3.3
333	NY-03	Robert Zimmerman	George Santos	R +3.3
334	MD-03	John Sarbanes	Yuripzy Morgan	R +3.3
335	CA-13	Adam Gray	John Duarte	R +3.3
336	IA-04	Ryan Melton	Randy Feenstra	R +3.3
337	TX-16	Veronica Escobar	Irene Armendariz-Jackson	R +3.4
338	VA-11	Gerry Connolly	James Myles	R +3.5
339	CA-14	Eric Swalwell	Alison Hayden	R +3.5
340	OH-03	Joyce Beatty	Lee Stahley	R +3.5
341	MA-05	Katherine Clark	Caroline Colarusso	R +3.5
342	IL-16	Elizabeth Haderlein	Darin LaHood	R +3.6
343	CA-11	Nancy Pelosi	John Dennis	R +3.7
344	AL-03	Lin Veasey	Mike Rogers	R +3.8
345	MO-04	Jack Truman	Mark Alford	R +3.8
346	NY-25	Joseh Morelle	La’Ron Singletary	R +3.9
347	NJ-04	Matthew Jenkins	Chris Smith	R +3.9
348	SC-07	Daryl Scott	Russell Fry	R +4.0
349	CA-50	Scott Peters	Corey Gustafson	R +4.1
350	TX-01	Jrmar Jefferson	Nathaniel Moran	R +4.1
351	OH-14	Matt Kilboy	David Joyce	R +4.2
352	AL-05	Kathy Warner-Stanton	Dale Strong	R +4.3
353	SC-06	Jim Clyburn	Duke Buckner	R +4.4
354	CA-40	Asif Mahmood	Young Kim	R +4.4
355	NJ-02	Tim Alexander	Jeff Van Drew	R +4.4
356	WA-05	Natasha Hill	Cathy McMorris Rodgers	R +4.5
357	NM-01	Melanie Stansbury	Michelle Garcia Holmes	R +4.7
358	TN-08	Lynnette Williams	David Kustoff	R +4.9
359	OR-05	Jamie McLeod-Skinner	Lori Chavez-DeRemer	R +4.9
360	DE-AL	Lisa Blunt Rochester	Lee Murphy	R +5.0
361	WA-02	Rick Larsen	Dan Matthews	R +5.0
362	MI-12	Rashida Tlaib	Steve Elliott	R +5.1
363	OR-06	Andrea Salinas	Mike Erickson	R +5.3
364	FL-28	Robert Asencio	Carlos A. Gimenez	R +5.4
365	CA-24	Salud Carbajal	Brad Allen	R +5.4
366	CA-22	Rudy Salas	David Valadao	R +5.4
367	CA-39	Mark Takano	Aja Smith	R +5.5
368	WA-10	Marilyn Strickland	Keith Swank	R +5.5
369	IN-02	Paul Steury	Rudy Yakym	R +5.5
370	WA-01	Suzan DelBene	Vincent Cavaleri	R +5.6
371	IL-02	Robin Kelly	Thomas Lynch	R +5.6
372	CA-26	Julia Brownley	Matt Jacobs	R +5.7
373	CA-31	Grace Napolitano	Daniel Martinez	R +5.7
374	NY-04	Laura Gillen	Anthony D’Esposito	R +5.7
375	NY-02	Jackie Gordon	Andrew Garbarino	R +5.8
376	MS-03	Shuwaski Young	Michael Guest	R +5.9
377	MD-05	Steny Hoyer	Chris Palombi	R +6.0
378	UT-03	Glenn Wright	John Curtis	R +6.0
379	CT-05	Jahana Hayes	George Logan	R +6.1
380	WA-07	Pramila Jayapal	Cliff Moon	R +6.2
381	PA-12	Summer Lee	Mike Doyle	R +6.4
382	VA-10	Jennifer Wexton	Hung Cao	R +6.5
383	NY-16	Jamaal Bowman	Miriam Flisser	R +6.6
384	CA-33	Pete Aguilar	John Porter	R +6.7
385	CA-21	Jim Costa	Michael Maher	R +6.7
386	IL-01	Jonathan Jackson	Eric Carlson	R +6.8
387	NE-03	David Else	Adrian Smith	R +7.5
388	MO-01	Cori Bush	Andrew Jones	R +7.5
389	CA-27	Christy Smith	Mike Garcia	R +7.5
390	CA-35	Norma Torres	Mike Cargile	R +7.7
391	CA-18	Zoe Lofgren	Peter Hernandez	R +7.7
392	FL-26	Christine Olivo	Mario Diaz-Balart	R +8.2
393	CA-38	Linda Sanchez	Eric Ching	R +8.2
394	CT-04	Jim Himes	Jayme Stevenson	R +8.6
395	LA-05	Various Dems	Julia Letlow	R +9.6
396	PA-01	Ashley Ehasz	Brian Fitzpatrick	R +9.8
397	LA-03	Various Dems	Clay Higgins	R +10.3
398	MN-05	Illhan Omar	Cicely Davis	R +10.4
399	KY-06	Geoff Young	Andy Barr	R +12.2
400	WA-04	Doug White	Dan Newhouse	R +14.1
401	OH-10	David Esrati	Mike Turner	R +14.3

Footnote: For those interested, our code and data can be found here, and the shapefile from @cinyc9 here. We would like to thank cinyc, Max McCall and Daily Kos Elections for being data collection resources.

Editor’s Note: On Jan. 21, 2022, the Split Ticket WAR model received a slight methodological upgrade that resulted in minor WAR score changes, though the findings remained directionally the same. The article and associated graphics have been updated to match the new findings.

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