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Our 2020 House wins-above-replacement (WAR) model showed that spending still matters in American politics. Among other things, the new 2022 edition proves that candidate quality, or the lack thereof, can fundamentally impact competitive races.
Controversial contenders paid a bigger penalty across the board this cycle than they did in 2020. In many cases, as 2022’s statewide elections showed, Republicans tended to nominate weaker candidates than Democrats did — perhaps a byproduct of former President Trump’s continuing influence in GOP primaries.
We’ve already examined candidate quality’s impact on senatorial, gubernatorial, and Secretary of State races. Now we’re turning our attention to the recent House of Representative elections to analyze candidate effects in more detail. Namely, how strong was each candidate relative to his or her opposition? How much did the result in any given district differ from the performance that a generic slate of nominees would have been expected to produce?
Methodology
Our wins-above-replacement metric provides a quantifiable “score” for each district that displays whether the Republican or Democrat performed better relative to data-based expectations. During the design process, our goal was to account for candidate-independent factors intrinsic to every district and the national environment.
We started by controlling for each seat’s racial composition. This was essential given both the strong correlation race has with partisanship and differing electoral patterns observed among distinct demographic groups nationwide. Next, we controlled for district partisanships in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, yielding a good measure of overall lean and expected down-ballot lag.
We then controlled for the midterm shift that districts’ states experienced. As we have previously covered, individual states experienced different environments this year. New York and Florida had massive red waves, whereas Michigan and Colorado swung leftward despite President Biden’s low midterm approval ratings. With this in mind, a Colorado Democrat outrunning Biden seems a lot less impressive than a Democrat in New York City or Florida doing so. Any model quantifying candidate strength should deal with this accordingly.
Lastly, we controlled for a couple of election-specific factors, such as incumbency and money spent by candidates and outside committees. While money’s impact has been declining of late, it still matters, as our 2018 and 2020 models showed.
By accounting for all of these factors, we crafted a measure of candidate strength that answers a simple question: how big was the candidate quality differential on a per-seat basis?
Authors’ Note: We urge appropriate caution when using this metric. Similar to baseball’s wins-above-replacement metric, our model is not granular enough to split candidates by a quarter of a point. It is impossible, for example, to use this metric to determine whether Pat Ryan, whose WAR in NY-18 was D+2.5, was a stronger candidate than Susan Wild, whose WAR in PA-07 was D+2.2. That said, we can use our tool to conclude that both were probably stronger candidates than Eric Sorensen, whose WAR was D+0.7 in IL-17.
ANALYSIS
Democrats Overperformed in Battleground Districts
One key question many observers had in the wake of the 2022 election cycle was whether swing seat Democrats overperformed more than swing seat Republicans. The evidence we have indicates that was the case.
We classify districts as battlegrounds if they voted within 10 points of the nation in 2020, or have an opposite party incumbent despite lying outside of this partisanship range. (In TX-34 we factored in both incumbents). Of the 82 House districts in the battleground category, Democrats overperformed in 46 compared to the Republicans’ 34 ー a stark reinforcement of the candidate quality points discussed above.
The evidence suggests Republicans’ 222-213 House majority is also slightly smaller than it could have and should have been with better nominees, giving Democrats an easier path to winning back the House in 2024 even with expected redistricting in North Carolina and Ohio. In other words, the GOP has a candidate problem where it counts the most: swing districts. Even if Republicans had had a better national environment on Nov. 8, candidate effects likely still would have limited their majority.
Democrats Probably Won More House Seats Than They Should Have
By numerically quantifying underperformance, the WAR model allows us to estimate which House races would have had different outcomes if “generic pairs” of Republican and Democratic candidates had been nominated. For example, which Democratic-won seats would have flipped Republican with a more standardized set of nominees? Our conclusions suggest that along with their disproportionate battleground nominee strength, Democrats won one more seat in 2022 than they would have with generic nominee pairs.
The table above also indicates that the GOP had a bigger candidate quality problem than Democrats did. Of the 15 House seats that our findings suggest would have voted differently had generic nominees been on the ballot, a majority (9) ended up in the Democratic column.
A look at the campaigns waged in some of the districts mentioned shows exactly why this was the case. In OH-09 and AK-AL, both Trump-won districts, Democrats Marcy Kaptur and Mary Peltola won comfortably thanks both to low-quality opponents and their compelling personal brands.
Kaptur has served in Congress since 1983 and enjoys strong union connections in a working class, traditionally-Democratic seat. Her challenger, J.R. Majewski, beat two credible state legislators in the GOP primary despite never having held elected office. National Republicans later cut Majewski off from their spending apparatus after allegations surfaced that he misconstrued his military service record.
Peltola, who won a stunning upset in an August special election to replace the late House Dean Don Young, managed to establish a reliable brand much faster, exemplified by her “fish, family, freedom” slogan. Former Governor Sarah Palin, whom Peltola beat in two instant-runoffs, suffered from high unfavorability ratings and a string of controversies dating back to her 2008 Republican Vice Presidential nomination.
Ranked-choice voting undoubtedly enabled Peltola’s initial election in August, but the scale of her recent victory for a full term suggests that she likely would have won under the conventional system too. Pre-election polls showed her beating both Begich and Palin in head-to-heads.
Strong Democratic incumbents like Jared Golden (ME-02) and Matt Cartwright (PA-08) benefitted from the same dynamic in Republican-trending, Trump-won seats. Challengers Bruce Poliquin and Jim Bognet were more conventional candidates, but the GOP would have needed some extraordinary recruits to flip both districts.
Republicans Bo Hines and Joe Kent also cost the GOP two open seats: NC-13, and WA-03. The first one, based primarily in the suburbs Raleigh, marginally backed Biden in 2020 and comfortably elected experienced state legislator Wiley Nickel this cycle. Despite his relative youth and inexperience, Hines probably suffered most among swing voters because of their strong ties to Trump.
The second district, a historically-inelastic Trump +4 seat in southwestern Washington, wouldn’t have been that competitive without the former President’s influence. Moderate Republican Jaime Herrera-Beutler lost the jungle primary to far-right challenger Joe Kent and Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez after voting to impeach Trump following January 6th. Gluesenkamp Perez eventually pulled off an upset in a race that Kent had been favored to win despite his controversial bid.
Henry Cuellar, a long-time Democratic incumbent and top overperformer, is not on the above list because TX-28, though Republican-trending, still broke for Biden by 7 points. In other words, a generic Democrat would have been expected to hold onto the seat. Only Cuellar could have won by 13, though, a sign that his Politiquero pedigree continues to hold weight in South Texas.
Zapata County (Trump +5), for instance, supported Cuellar by 46 while maintaining near presidential turnout. Strengthened by his Catholic background and social conservatism, Cuellar’s regional pull overshadowed an FBI investigation into accusations of illicit dealings with Azerbaijan and delivered him a cakewalk victory against otherwise-credible Republican Cassy Garcia.
Similar candidate quality dynamics also helped victorious Republicans, though to a lesser extent. All six of the seats Democrats would have been expected to win under generic conditions are within the states of New York, California, and Oregon ー each of which lurched significantly rightward between 2020 and 2022.
In the Golden State, Republicans Mike Garcia (CA-27) and David Valadao (CA-22) maximized crossover appeal to win reelection in double-digit Biden seats made bluer in redistricting. Democrats simply did not get the challengers that they needed to match such formidable opposition. Meanwhile, in the east, a similarly strong incumbent was moderate Republican Brian Fitzpatrick, who retained his Biden +5 PA-01 at a canter, despite our model suggesting that his seat should have flipped in what was an exceptionally tough cycle for Pennsylvania Republicans. Even if the national environment is bluer in 2024 (a presidential cycle), national Republicans worried about their House majority may take solace in the strength of Garcia, Fitzpatrick and Valadao.
Our most surprising finding is perhaps NY-17, which DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney narrowly lost to challenger Mike Lawler. This Biden +10 seat, primarily based in Westchester County, divides New York City and Upstate New York. Republicans invested heavily in the 17th to take down Maloney, a historically strong incumbent with leadership status.
In the wake of his loss, the ex-congressman blamed Governor Kathy Hochul’s underperformance for his defeat. While this certainly contributed to his loss, our model suggests that a generic Democratic incumbent still should have beaten a standard Republican; the WAR score for NY-17 was R+2.7, and the seat was decided by just 0.6%. It is difficult to subjectively determine how much of the outcome depended on Lawler’s strengths or Maloney’s weaknesses, but there are indications that the incumbent’s own choices may have cost him reelection.
Maloney’s biggest faux pas was deciding to run in NY-17, which overlapped with just 25% of his original seat. His move pushed out fellow congressman Mondaire Jones, fueling bad blood among new constituents and lessening the benefits incumbents normally accrue from district ties. Unwise in any situation, taking on new turf proved especially dangerous this cycle given New York’s palpable rightward shift.
The DCCC Chair’s past victories established his reputation as a strong incumbent, an accolade confirmed by his D+6.4 wins-above-replacement score from 2020. Switching districts ultimately had a negative impact on his crossover potential. Had Maloney stayed in NY-18 (Biden +8) he probably would have held on, a possibility confirmed by Pat Ryan’s victory in the same seat in November.
Extreme Candidates Likely Paid An Electoral Penalty
Our district findings do indeed suggest that “extremist” candidates often struggle to consolidate support, especially in swing districts where persuadable voters can mean the difference between close races and blowouts. Four of the worst performing Democratic and Republican incumbents of 2022 could be classified as “fringe” members: Cori Bush (MO-01), Ilhan Omar (MN-05), Majorie Taylor Greene (GA-14) and Lauren Boebert (CO-03).
Bush and Omar, representing the St. Louis and Minneapolis-St. Paul metros, respectively, are among the House’s most progressive members — referred to as “the squad”. Greene serves rural northwestern Georgia and Boebert Colorado’s Western Slope.
Of these four representatives, three also underperformed according to the 2020 WAR model (with Cori Bush being the lone exception). This is hardly surprising, considering Split Ticket’s prior discovery that extreme candidates tend to pay electoral penalties, an ideological quandary we plan on analyzing in a followup article.
Omar, for example, ran behind Biden more than any other incumbent Democrat in 2020 (-17.3), nearly lost her last primary, and underperformed by 9.1 points in 2022. Unlike swing district underperformers, though, Omar will have no issues winning future reelections in her Biden +64 seat as long as she secures the Democratic nomination — a glaring uncertainty at best.
Boebert, meanwhile, proved that a mixture of poor candidate quality and a hostile political environment can endanger competitive seats — even when they have a decided lean toward one party. CO-03, her Trump +8 district, did vote for Governor Jared Polis, but it is hard to argue that a mainstream incumbent like Scott Tipton, whom Boebert beat in the 2020 primary, wouldn’t have won by more than 546 votes. In other words, her win was extremely underwhelming by any standard, even after accounting for the awful night that Colorado Republicans had.
Conclusion
If there was ever an environment or a cycle to remind us that candidate quality was still important, then 2022 was probably it. Across every major office and chamber, one thing was clear: candidate quality mattered, and it mattered enough to change the results of several races.
In hindsight, this is not a surprise, even with the acceleration of polarization. Voters are not robots, and the electorate responds negatively against candidates who are viewed as out of step, disconnected, or extreme, just as they still respond positively to good candidates who work for all constituents.
It is still possible to reach voters on the other side and in the middle while still turning out your own base. It is what many strong candidates do, and it is how several elections were won in this cycle. Our model is just one way of quantifying a candidate’s strength, but it is, to our knowledge, currently the only such metric out there. We hope that you find it informative in learning about how candidates performed and how and where elections were won and lost.
Searchable Table
This table is best viewed on desktop, where it is searchable and paginated. For an optimal mobile view, see the interactive version, which can be found here.
| Rank | District | Democrat | Republican | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NY-09 | Yvette Clarke | Menachem Raitport (C) | D +20.6 |
| 2 | AK-AL | Mary Peltola | Sarah Palin | D +18.0 |
| 3 | HI-01 | Ed Case | Conrad Kress | D +17.5 |
| 4 | OH-09 | Marcy Kaptur | JR Majewski | D +14.8 |
| 5 | ND-AL | Cara Mund (I) | Kelly Armstrong | D +14.5 |
| 6 | NJ-08 | Rob Menendez | Marcos Arroyo | D +11.3 |
| 7 | NY-26 | Brian Higgins | Steven Sams | D +11.2 |
| 8 | TX-28 | Henry Cuellar | Cassy Garcia | D +11.1 |
| 9 | TX-29 | Sylvia Garcia | Robert Schafranek | D +10.3 |
| 10 | FL-01 | Rebekah Jones | Matt Gaetz | D +10.2 |
| 11 | GA-14 | Marcus Flowers | Marjorie Taylor Greene | D +10.2 |
| 12 | CO-03 | Adam Frisch | Lauren Boebert | D +10.1 |
| 13 | TX-20 | Joaquin Castro | Kyle Sinclair | D +9.2 |
| 14 | CT-02 | Joe Courtney | Mike France | D +9.1 |
| 15 | PA-02 | Brendan Boyle | Aaron Bashir | D +8.9 |
| 16 | LA-02 | Troy Carter | Dan Lux | D +8.7 |
| 17 | NY-07 | Nydia Velazquez | Juan Pagan | D +8.5 |
| 18 | WV-02 | Barry Lee Wendell | Alex Mooney | D +8.4 |
| 19 | FL-13 | Eric Lynn | Anna Paulina Luna | D +8.0 |
| 20 | ME-02 | Jared Golden | Bruce Poliquin | D +7.5 |
| 21 | NY-10 | Dan Goldman | Benine Hamdan | D +7.4 |
| 22 | TX-37 | Lloyd Doggett | Jenny Garcia Sharon | D +7.3 |
| 23 | NY-06 | Grace Meng | Thomas Zmich | D +7.1 |
| 24 | UT-04 | Darlene McDonald | Burgess Owens | D +7.0 |
| 25 | MD-01 | Heather Mizeur | Andy Harris | D +6.4 |
| 26 | KS-03 | Sharice Davids | Amanda Adkins | D +6.2 |
| 27 | NY-15 | Ritchie Torres | Stylo Sapaskis | D +6.1 |
| 28 | MT-01 | Monica Tranel | Ryan Zinke | D +6.0 |
| 29 | TX-09 | Al Green | Jimmy Leon | D +6.0 |
| 30 | NY-21 | Matt Castelli | Elise Stefanik | D +5.9 |
| 31 | MI-08 | Dan Kildee | Paul Junge | D +5.9 |
| 32 | CA-41 | Will Rollins | Ken Calvert | D +5.8 |
| 33 | MI-03 | Hillary Scholten | John Gibbs | D +5.6 |
| 34 | LA-01 | Katie Darling | Steve Sclaise | D +5.4 |
| 35 | GA-13 | David Scott | Caesar Gonzales | D +5.4 |
| 36 | NJ-01 | Donald Norcross | Claire Gustafson | D +5.4 |
| 37 | NJ-11 | Mikie Sherrill | Paul DeGroot | D +5.2 |
| 38 | NC-13 | Wiley Nickel | Bo Hines | D +5.2 |
| 39 | IN-06 | Cinde Wirth | Greg Pence | D +5.1 |
| 40 | WA-03 | Marie Gluesenkamp Perez | Joe Kent | D +5.1 |
| 41 | PA-08 | Matt Cartwright | Jim Bognet | D +5.1 |
| 42 | TX-13 | Kathleen Brown | Ronny Jackson | D +5.1 |
| 43 | OH-13 | Emilia Sykes | Madison Gesiotto | D +5.0 |
| 44 | TX-35 | Greg Casar | Dan McQueen | D +5.0 |
| 45 | SC-01 | Annie Andrews | Nancy Mace | D +4.6 |
| 46 | TN-06 | Randal Cooper | John Rose | D +4.4 |
| 47 | IL-13 | Nikki Budzinski | Regan Deering | D +4.3 |
| 48 | FL-24 | Frederica Wilson | Jesus Navarro | D +4.3 |
| 49 | KY-03 | Morgan McGarvey | Stuart Ray | D +4.2 |
| 50 | TX-32 | Colin Allred | Antonio Swad | D +4.2 |
| 51 | CA-28 | Judy Chu | Wes Hallman | D +4.2 |
| 52 | TX-21 | Claudia Zapata | Chip Roy | D +4.2 |
| 53 | AZ-03 | Ruben Gallego | Jeff Zink | D +4.1 |
| 54 | NY-19 | Josh Riley | Marc Molinaro | D +4.0 |
| 55 | TX-27 | Maclovio Perez | Michael Cloud | D +4.0 |
| 56 | AZ-05 | Javier Ramos | Andy Biggs | D +4.0 |
| 57 | CA-25 | Raul Ruiz | Brian Hawkins | D +3.8 |
| 58 | CA-12 | Barbara Lee | Stephen Slauson | D +3.8 |
| 59 | PA-16 | Dan Pastore | Mike Kelly | D +3.8 |
| 60 | TX-24 | Jan Mcdowell | Beth Van Duyne | D +3.7 |
| 61 | OH-04 | Tamie Wilson | Jim Jordan | D +3.6 |
| 62 | TX-02 | Robin Fulford | Dan Crenshaw | D +3.5 |
| 63 | MD-04 | Glenn Ivey | Jeff Warner | D +3.5 |
| 64 | TX-30 | Jasmine Crockett | James Rodgers | D +3.5 |
| 65 | CA-07 | Doris Matsui | Max Semenenko | D +3.4 |
| 66 | MA-08 | Stephen Lynch | Robert Burke | D +3.4 |
| 67 | MO-03 | Bethany Mann | Blaine Luetkemeyer | D +3.4 |
| 68 | CA-48 | Stephen Houlahan | Darrell Issa | D +3.4 |
| 69 | WV-01 | Lacy Watson | Carol Miller | D +3.3 |
| 70 | TN-05 | Heidi Campbell | Andy Ogles | D +3.2 |
| 71 | VA-01 | Herb Jones | Rob Wittman | D +3.2 |
| 72 | IN-08 | Ray McCormick | Larry Bucshon | D +3.1 |
| 73 | AZ-06 | Kirsten Engel | Juan Ciscomani | D +3.1 |
| 74 | NJ-03 | Andy Kim | Bob Healey Jr. | D +3.1 |
| 75 | MI-10 | Carl Marlinga | John James | D +3.0 |
| 76 | FL-14 | Kathy Castor | James Judge | D +3.0 |
| 77 | NV-03 | Susie Lee | April Becker | D +2.9 |
| 78 | CA-01 | Max Steiner | Doug LaMalfa | D +2.9 |
| 79 | ID-02 | Wendy Norman | Mike Simpson | D +2.9 |
| 80 | MI-07 | Elissa Slotkin | Tom Barrett | D +2.8 |
| 81 | IL-09 | Jan Schakowsky | Max Rice | D +2.8 |
| 82 | KS-02 | Patrick Schmidt | Jake LaTurner | D +2.7 |
| 83 | OK-04 | Mary Brannon | Tom Cole | D +2.7 |
| 84 | IA-01 | Christina Bohannan | Mariannette Miller-Meeks | D +2.7 |
| 85 | TX-18 | Sheila Jackson Lee | Carmen Maria Montiel | D +2.7 |
| 86 | FL-03 | Danielle Hawk | Kat Cammack | D +2.6 |
| 87 | AZ-01 | Jevin Hodge | David Schweikert | D +2.6 |
| 88 | FL-07 | Karen Green | Cory Mills | D +2.6 |
| 89 | CA-20 | Marisa Wood | Kevin McCarthy | D +2.6 |
| 90 | IA-03 | Cindy Axne | Zach Nunn | D +2.6 |
| 91 | NY-18 | Pat Ryan | Colin Schmitt | D +2.5 |
| 92 | IL-05 | Mike Quigley | Tommy Hanson | D +2.5 |
| 93 | TX-07 | Lizzie Fletcher | Johnny Teague | D +2.5 |
| 94 | NV-01 | Dina Titus | Mark Robertson | D +2.4 |
| 95 | AZ-04 | Greg Stanton | Kelly Cooper | D +2.4 |
| 96 | TX-36 | Jon Haire | Brian Babin | D +2.4 |
| 97 | PA-11 | Bob Hollister | Lloyd Smucker | D +2.3 |
| 98 | RI-01 | David Cicillline | Allen Waters | D +2.3 |
| 99 | PA-10 | Shamaine Daniels | Scott Perry | D +2.3 |
| 100 | IA-02 | Liz Mathis | Ashley Hinson | D +2.3 |
| 101 | FL-22 | Lois Frankel | Daniel Franzese | D +2.3 |
| 102 | NM-03 | Teresa Leger Fernandez | Alexis Martinez Johnson | D +2.3 |
| 103 | PA-07 | Susan Wild | Lisa Scheller | D +2.2 |
| 104 | TX-05 | Tartisha Hill | Lance Gooden | D +2.2 |
| 105 | CA-08 | John Garamendi | Rudy Recile | D +2.2 |
| 106 | IN-05 | Jeannine Lee Lake | Victoria Spartz | D +2.2 |
| 107 | PA-04 | Madeleine Dean | Christian Nascimento | D +2.2 |
| 108 | MI-06 | Debbie Dingell | Whittney Williams | D +2.2 |
| 109 | MO-08 | Randi McCallian | Jason Smith | D +2.2 |
| 110 | FL-12 | Kimberly Walker | Gus Bilirakis | D +2.2 |
| 111 | GA-04 | Hank Johnson | Jonathan Chavez | D +2.1 |
| 112 | KY-04 | Matt Lehman | Thomas Massie | D +2.1 |
| 113 | MN-01 | Jeff Ettinger | Brad Finstad | D +2.1 |
| 114 | TX-33 | Marc Veasey | Patrick Gillespie | D +2.1 |
| 115 | NJ-05 | Josh Gottheimer | Frank Pallotta | D +2.1 |
| 116 | VA-07 | Abigail Spanberger | Yesli Vega | D +2.0 |
| 117 | OH-07 | Matthew Diemer | Max Miller | D +2.0 |
| 118 | CA-52 | Juan Vargas | Tyler Geffeney | D +2.0 |
| 119 | WI-03 | Brad Pfaff | Derrick Van Orden | D +2.0 |
| 120 | CA-09 | Josh Harder | Tom Patti | D +2.0 |
| 121 | FL-02 | Al Lawson | Neal Dunn | D +2.0 |
| 122 | MO-02 | Trish Gunby | Ann Wagner | D +2.0 |
| 123 | NC-11 | Jasmine Beach-Ferrera | Chuck Edwards | D +1.9 |
| 124 | MD-07 | Kweisi Mfume | Scott Collier | D +1.9 |
| 125 | TN-01 | Cameron Parsons | Diana Harshbarger | D +1.8 |
| 126 | PA-09 | Amanda Waldman | Dan Meuser | D +1.8 |
| 127 | PA-17 | Chris Deluzio | Jeremy Shaffer | D +1.7 |
| 128 | NC-07 | Charles Graham | David Rouzer | D +1.7 |
| 129 | NY-22 | Francis Conole | Brandon Williams | D +1.7 |
| 130 | MI-02 | Jerry Hilliard | John Moolenaar | D +1.6 |
| 131 | TX-15 | Michelle Vallejo | Monica De La Cruz | D +1.6 |
| 132 | VT-AL | Becca Balint | Liam Madden | D +1.6 |
| 133 | CA-02 | Jared Huffman | Douglas Brower | D +1.5 |
| 134 | NC-09 | Ben Clark | Richard Hudson | D +1.5 |
| 135 | TN-07 | Odessa Kelly | Mark Green | D +1.4 |
| 136 | NC-14 | Jeff Jackson | Pat Harrigan | D +1.4 |
| 137 | CA-36 | Ted Lieu | Joe Collins III | D +1.4 |
| 138 | FL-25 | Debbie Wasserman Schultz | Carla Spalding | D +1.4 |
| 139 | WY-AL | Lynnette Grey Bull | Harriet Hageman | D +1.3 |
| 140 | AR-03 | Lauren Mallett-Hays | Steve Womack | D +1.3 |
| 141 | NJ-06 | Frank Pallone | Sue Kiley | D +1.3 |
| 142 | WI-02 | Mark Pocan | Erik Olsen | D +1.3 |
| 143 | VA-09 | Taysha DeVaughan | Morgan Griffith | D +1.3 |
| 144 | OH-01 | Greg Landsman | Steve Chabot | D +1.3 |
| 145 | FL-08 | Joanne Terry | Bill Posey | D +1.3 |
| 146 | TN-09 | Steve Cohen | Charlotte Bergmann | D +1.2 |
| 147 | FL-23 | Jared Moskowitz | Joe Budd | D +1.2 |
| 148 | CA-04 | Mike Thompson | Matt Brock | D +1.2 |
| 149 | MI-13 | Shri Thanedar | Martell Bivings | D +1.2 |
| 150 | OK-05 | Joshua Harris-Till | Stephanie Bice | D +1.2 |
| 151 | FL-27 | Annette Taddeo | Maria Elvira Salazar | D +1.2 |
| 152 | MA-02 | Jim McGovern | Jeffrey Sossa-Paquette | D +1.2 |
| 153 | GA-09 | Mike Ford | Andrew Clyde | D +1.1 |
| 154 | PA-15 | Mike Molesevich | Glenn Thompson | D +1.1 |
| 155 | CA-44 | Nanette Barragan | Paul Jones | D +1.1 |
| 156 | SC-02 | Judd Larkins | Joe Wilson | D +1.1 |
| 157 | CA-19 | Jimmy Panetta | Jeff Gorman | D +1.1 |
| 158 | FL-17 | Andrea Kale | Greg Steube | D +1.1 |
| 159 | NC-05 | Kyle Parrish | Virginia Foxx | D +1.1 |
| 160 | NC-02 | Deborah Ross | Christine Villaverde | D +1.1 |
| 161 | IN-09 | Matthew Fyfe | Erin Houchin | D +1.0 |
| 162 | PA-06 | Chrissy Houlahan | Guy Ciarrocchi | D +1.0 |
| 163 | GA-01 | Wade Herring | Buddy Carter | D +1.0 |
| 164 | NJ-10 | Donald Payne Jr. | David Pinckney | D +1.0 |
| 165 | TN-02 | Mark Harmon | Tim Burchett | D +0.9 |
| 166 | FL-20 | Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick | Drew-Montez Clark | D +0.9 |
| 167 | UT-02 | Nick Mitchell | Chris Stewart | D +0.9 |
| 168 | NE-01 | Patty Pansing Brooks | Mike Flood | D +0.9 |
| 169 | CA-03 | Kermit Jones | Kevin Kiley | D +0.8 |
| 170 | GA-03 | Val Almond | Drew Ferguson | D +0.8 |
| 171 | CO-07 | Brittany Pettersen | Erik Aadland | D +0.8 |
| 172 | AR-01 | Monte Hodges | Rick Crawford | D +0.8 |
| 173 | CA-32 | Brad Sherman | Lucie Volotzky | D +0.8 |
| 174 | IL-17 | Eric Sorensen | Esther Joy King | D +0.7 |
| 175 | TX-10 | Linda Nuno | Michae McCaul | D +0.7 |
| 176 | CA-51 | Sara Jacobs | Stan Caplan | D +0.7 |
| 177 | NV-04 | Steven Horsford | Sam Peters | D +0.6 |
| 178 | MD-08 | Jamie Raskin | Gregory Coll | D +0.6 |
| 179 | TX-34 | Vicente Gonzalez | Mayra Flores | D +0.6 |
| 180 | NC-04 | Valerie Foushee | Courtney Geels | D +0.6 |
| 181 | VA-06 | Jennifer Lewis | Ben Cline | D +0.6 |
| 182 | IN-03 | Gary Snyder | Jim Banks | D +0.5 |
| 183 | FL-19 | Cindy Banyai | Byron Donalds | D +0.4 |
| 184 | TX-12 | Trey Hunt | Kay Granger | D +0.4 |
| 185 | MI-11 | Haley Stevens | Mark Ambrose | D +0.4 |
| 186 | NY-12 | Jerry Nadler | Michael Zumbluskas | D +0.4 |
| 187 | MN-06 | Jeanne Hendricks | Tom Emmer | D +0.4 |
| 188 | FL-16 | Jan Schneider | Vern Buchanan | D +0.4 |
| 189 | TX-22 | Jamie Jordan | Troy Nehls | D +0.4 |
| 190 | IL-11 | Bill Foster | Cataline Lauf | D +0.3 |
| 191 | CA-45 | Jay Chen | Michelle Steel | D +0.3 |
| 192 | TX-38 | Duncan Klussmann | Wesley Hunt | D +0.2 |
| 193 | AL-07 | Terri Sewell | Beatrice Nichols | D +0.2 |
| 194 | NC-10 | Pam Genant | Patrick McHenry | D +0.2 |
| 195 | GA-02 | Sanford Bishop | Chris West | D +0.1 |
| 196 | NH-01 | Chris Pappas | Karoline Leavitt | D +0.1 |
| 197 | TN-03 | Meg Gorman | Chuck Fleischmann | D +0.1 |
| 198 | MA-03 | Lori Trahan | Dean Tran | D +0.0 |
| 199 | IN-01 | Frank Mrvan | Jennfier-Ruth Green | D +0.0 |
| 200 | OR-04 | Val Hoyle | Alek Skarlatos | R +0.0 |
| 201 | IL-10 | Brad Schneider | Joseph Severino | R +0.1 |
| 202 | GA-10 | Tabitha Johnson-Green | Mike Collins | R +0.1 |
| 203 | TX-23 | John Lira | Tony Gonzales | R +0.1 |
| 204 | CO-01 | Diana DeGette | Jennier Qualteri | R +0.1 |
| 205 | KS-04 | Bob Hernandez | Ron Estes | R +0.1 |
| 206 | TX-17 | Mary Jo Woods | Pete Sessions | R +0.1 |
| 207 | OK-02 | Naomi Andrews | Josh Brecheen | R +0.1 |
| 208 | GA-05 | Nikema Williams | Christian Zimm | R +0.1 |
| 209 | OH-02 | Samantha Meadows | Brad Wenstrup | R +0.1 |
| 210 | MI-09 | Brian Jaye | Lisa McClain | R +0.1 |
| 211 | WI-04 | Gwen Moore | Tim Rogers | R +0.2 |
| 212 | OR-03 | Earl Blumenauer | Joanna Harbour | R +0.2 |
| 213 | IL-06 | Sean Casten | Keith Pekau | R +0.2 |
| 214 | FL-04 | LaShonda Holloway | Aaron Bean | R +0.2 |
| 215 | FL-09 | Darren Soto | Scotty Moore | R +0.3 |
| 216 | IL-15 | Paul Lange | Mary Miller | R +0.3 |
| 217 | KY-02 | Hank Linderman | Brett Guthrie | R +0.3 |
| 218 | MN-02 | Angie Craig | Tyler Kistner | R +0.4 |
| 219 | WA-06 | Derek Kilmer | Elizabeth Kreiselmaier | R +0.4 |
| 220 | NC-08 | Scott Huffman | Dan Bishop | R +0.4 |
| 221 | IN-04 | Roger Day | Jim Baird | R +0.4 |
| 222 | AZ-02 | Tom O’Halleran | Eli Crane | R +0.4 |
| 223 | NY-20 | Paul Tonko | Liz Joy | R +0.4 |
| 224 | IL-08 | Raja Krishnamoorthi | Chris Dargis | R +0.5 |
| 225 | NY-01 | Bridget Fleming | Nick LaLota | R +0.5 |
| 226 | MN-08 | Jennifer Schultz | Pete Stauber | R +0.5 |
| 227 | IL-03 | Delia Ramirez | Justin Burau | R +0.5 |
| 228 | VA-03 | Bobby Scott | Terry Namkung | R +0.5 |
| 229 | MD-06 | David Trone | Neil Parrott | R +0.5 |
| 230 | VA-05 | Joshua Throneburg | Bob Good | R +0.7 |
| 231 | NY-24 | Steve Holden | Claudia Tenney | R +0.7 |
| 232 | WA-08 | Kim Schrier | Matt Larkin | R +0.8 |
| 233 | KY-05 | Conor Halbleib | Hal Rogers | R +0.8 |
| 234 | CA-05 | MIke Barkley | Tom McClintock | R +0.8 |
| 235 | TX-04 | Iro Omere | Pat Fallon | R +0.8 |
| 236 | ME-01 | Chellie Pingree | Ed Thelander | R +0.8 |
| 237 | MN-03 | Dean Phillips | Tom Weiler | R +0.9 |
| 238 | CA-49 | Mike Levin | Brian Maryott | R +0.9 |
| 239 | HI-02 | Jill Tokuda | Joe Akana | R +0.9 |
| 240 | CO-02 | Joe Neguse | Marshall Dawson | R +1.0 |
| 241 | NJ-12 | Bonnie Watson Coleman | Darius Mayfield | R +1.0 |
| 242 | GA-07 | Lucy McBath | Mark Gonsalves | R +1.0 |
| 243 | MO-05 | Emanuel Cleaver | Jacob Turk | R +1.0 |
| 244 | MA-01 | Richard Neal | Dean Martilli | R +1.1 |
| 245 | MO-06 | Henry Martin | Sam Graves | R +1.1 |
| 246 | CA-17 | Ro Khanna | Ritesh Tandon | R +1.1 |
| 247 | TX-08 | Laura Jones | Morgan Luttrell | R +1.1 |
| 248 | MO-07 | Kristen Radaker-Sheafer | Eric Burlison | R +1.1 |
| 249 | OR-01 | Suzanne Bonamici | Christopher Mann | R +1.1 |
| 250 | CA-42 | Robert Garcia | John Briscoe | R +1.2 |
| 251 | MA-06 | Seth Moulton | Bob May | R +1.2 |
| 252 | FL-15 | Alan Cohn | Laurel Lee | R +1.2 |
| 253 | NJ-07 | Tom Malinowski | Tom Kean Jr. | R +1.2 |
| 254 | OK-03 | Jeremiah Ross | Frank Lucas | R +1.2 |
| 255 | NM-02 | Gabe Vasquez | Yvette Herrell | R +1.3 |
| 256 | OH-15 | Gary Josephson | Mike Carey | R +1.3 |
| 257 | KY-01 | Jimmy Ausbrooks | James Comer | R +1.3 |
| 258 | OH-08 | Vanessa Enoch | Warren Davidson | R +1.3 |
| 259 | CT-01 | John Larson | Larry Lazor | R +1.3 |
| 260 | CO-05 | David Torres | Doug Lamborn | R +1.3 |
| 261 | IL-12 | Chip Markel | Mike Bost | R +1.4 |
| 262 | NY-05 | Gregory Meeks | Paul King | R +1.4 |
| 263 | MA-09 | Bill Keating | Jesse Brown | R +1.4 |
| 264 | SC-05 | Evangeline Hundley | Ralph Norman | R +1.5 |
| 265 | CT-03 | Rosa DeLauro | Lesley DeNardis | R +1.5 |
| 266 | NY-11 | Max Rose | Nicole Malliotakis | R +1.5 |
| 267 | MS-02 | Bennie Thompson | Brain Flowers | R +1.5 |
| 268 | WI-07 | Richard Ausman | Tom Tiffany | R +1.5 |
| 269 | AR-04 | John White | Bruce Westerman | R +1.6 |
| 270 | VA-02 | Elaine Luria | Jen Kiggans | R +1.6 |
| 271 | FL-10 | Maxwell Frost | Calvin Wimbish | R +1.6 |
| 272 | MI-05 | Bart Goldberg | Tim Walberg | R +1.6 |
| 273 | MD-02 | Dutch Ruppersberger | Nicolee Ambrose | R +1.6 |
| 274 | OK-01 | Adam Martin | Kevin Hern | R +1.7 |
| 275 | MA-07 | Ayanna Pressley | Donnie Palmer | R +1.7 |
| 276 | PA-05 | Mary Gay Scanlon | David Galluch | R +1.7 |
| 277 | WI-05 | Mike Van Someren | Scott Fitzgerald | R +1.7 |
| 278 | FL-21 | Corinna Balderramos Robinson | Brian Mast | R +1.7 |
| 279 | TN-04 | Wayne Steele | Scott DesJarlais | R +1.8 |
| 280 | NY-14 | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | Tina Forte | R +1.8 |
| 281 | CA-46 | Lou Correa | Christopher Gonzales | R +1.8 |
| 282 | GA-11 | Antonio Daza | Barry Loudermilk | R +1.8 |
| 283 | NH-02 | Annie Kuster | Robert Burns | R +1.8 |
| 284 | NV-02 | Elizabeth Krause | Mark Amodei | R +1.9 |
| 285 | ID-01 | Kaylee Peterson | Russ Fulcher | R +2.0 |
| 286 | NC-01 | Don Davis | Sandy Smith | R +2.0 |
| 287 | WA-09 | Adam Smith | Doug Basler | R +2.0 |
| 288 | OH-05 | Craig Swartz | Bob Latta | R +2.1 |
| 289 | MN-04 | Betty McCollum | May Lor Xiong | R +2.1 |
| 290 | AZ-07 | Raul Grijalva | Luis Pozzolo | R +2.1 |
| 291 | NY-08 | Hakeem Jeffries | Yuri Dashevsky | R +2.1 |
| 292 | AL-04 | Rick Neighbors | Robert Aderholt | R +2.2 |
| 293 | TX-14 | Mikal Williams | Randy Weber | R +2.2 |
| 294 | CA-43 | Maxine Waters | Omar Navarro | R +2.2 |
| 295 | CA-06 | Ami Bera | Tamika Hamilton | R +2.2 |
| 296 | NE-02 | Tony Vargas | Don Bacon | R +2.3 |
| 297 | AL-02 | Phyllis Harvey-Hall | Barry Moore | R +2.3 |
| 298 | NC-03 | Barbara Gaskins | Greg Murphy | R +2.3 |
| 299 | CO-06 | Jason Crow | Steven Monahan | R +2.3 |
| 300 | VA-04 | Donald McEachin | Leon Benjamin | R +2.3 |
| 301 | FL-11 | Shante Munns | Daniel Webster | R +2.3 |
| 302 | KS-01 | Jimmy Beard | Tracey Mann | R +2.4 |
| 303 | CA-47 | Katie Porter | Scott Baugh | R +2.4 |
| 304 | NC-12 | Alma Adams | Tyler Lee | R +2.4 |
| 305 | IL-14 | Lauren Underwood | Scott Gryder | R +2.4 |
| 306 | GA-12 | Liz Johnson | Rick Allen | R +2.5 |
| 307 | GA-08 | Darrius Butler | Austin Scott | R +2.5 |
| 308 | IN-07 | Andre Carson | Angela Grabovsky | R +2.5 |
| 309 | VA-08 | Don Beyer | Karina Lipsman | R +2.5 |
| 310 | CO-08 | Yadira Caraveo | Barbara Kirkmeyer | R +2.5 |
| 311 | NY-17 | Sean Patrick Maloney | Mike Lawler | R +2.7 |
| 312 | GA-06 | Bob Christian | Rich McCormick | R +2.7 |
| 313 | TX-03 | Sandeep Srivastava | Keith Self | R +2.7 |
| 314 | MI-01 | Bob Lorinser | Jack Bergman | R +2.7 |
| 315 | MI-04 | Joseph Alfonso | Bill Huizenga | R +2.7 |
| 316 | NJ-09 | Bill Pascrell | Billy Prempeh | R +2.7 |
| 317 | MS-04 | Johnny DuPree | Mike Ezell | R +2.8 |
| 318 | MN-07 | Jill Abahsain | Michelle Fischbach | R +2.8 |
| 319 | AR-02 | Quintessa Hathaway | French Hill | R +2.9 |
| 320 | WI-01 | Ann Roe | Bryan Steil | R +2.9 |
| 321 | NC-06 | Kathy Manning | Christian Castelli | R +2.9 |
| 322 | OH-11 | Shontel Brown | Eric Brewer | R +2.9 |
| 323 | CO-04 | Ike McCorkle | Ken Buck | R +3.0 |
| 324 | NY-23 | Max Della Pia | Nick Langworthy | R +3.0 |
| 325 | RI-02 | Seth Magaziner | Allan Fung | R +3.0 |
| 326 | CA-23 | Derek Marshall | Jay Odernolte | R +3.1 |
| 327 | OH-12 | Amy Rippel-Elton | Troy Balderson | R +3.1 |
| 328 | MS-01 | Dianne Black | Trent Kelly | R +3.1 |
| 329 | OR-02 | Joe Yetter | Cliff Bentz | R +3.1 |
| 330 | UT-01 | Rick Jones | Blake Moore | R +3.2 |
| 331 | OH-06 | Louis Lyras | Bill Johnson | R +3.2 |
| 332 | IL-04 | Chuy Garcia | James Falakos | R +3.3 |
| 333 | NY-03 | Robert Zimmerman | George Santos | R +3.3 |
| 334 | MD-03 | John Sarbanes | Yuripzy Morgan | R +3.3 |
| 335 | CA-13 | Adam Gray | John Duarte | R +3.3 |
| 336 | IA-04 | Ryan Melton | Randy Feenstra | R +3.3 |
| 337 | TX-16 | Veronica Escobar | Irene Armendariz-Jackson | R +3.4 |
| 338 | VA-11 | Gerry Connolly | James Myles | R +3.5 |
| 339 | CA-14 | Eric Swalwell | Alison Hayden | R +3.5 |
| 340 | OH-03 | Joyce Beatty | Lee Stahley | R +3.5 |
| 341 | MA-05 | Katherine Clark | Caroline Colarusso | R +3.5 |
| 342 | IL-16 | Elizabeth Haderlein | Darin LaHood | R +3.6 |
| 343 | CA-11 | Nancy Pelosi | John Dennis | R +3.7 |
| 344 | AL-03 | Lin Veasey | Mike Rogers | R +3.8 |
| 345 | MO-04 | Jack Truman | Mark Alford | R +3.8 |
| 346 | NY-25 | Joseh Morelle | La’Ron Singletary | R +3.9 |
| 347 | NJ-04 | Matthew Jenkins | Chris Smith | R +3.9 |
| 348 | SC-07 | Daryl Scott | Russell Fry | R +4.0 |
| 349 | CA-50 | Scott Peters | Corey Gustafson | R +4.1 |
| 350 | TX-01 | Jrmar Jefferson | Nathaniel Moran | R +4.1 |
| 351 | OH-14 | Matt Kilboy | David Joyce | R +4.2 |
| 352 | AL-05 | Kathy Warner-Stanton | Dale Strong | R +4.3 |
| 353 | SC-06 | Jim Clyburn | Duke Buckner | R +4.4 |
| 354 | CA-40 | Asif Mahmood | Young Kim | R +4.4 |
| 355 | NJ-02 | Tim Alexander | Jeff Van Drew | R +4.4 |
| 356 | WA-05 | Natasha Hill | Cathy McMorris Rodgers | R +4.5 |
| 357 | NM-01 | Melanie Stansbury | Michelle Garcia Holmes | R +4.7 |
| 358 | TN-08 | Lynnette Williams | David Kustoff | R +4.9 |
| 359 | OR-05 | Jamie McLeod-Skinner | Lori Chavez-DeRemer | R +4.9 |
| 360 | DE-AL | Lisa Blunt Rochester | Lee Murphy | R +5.0 |
| 361 | WA-02 | Rick Larsen | Dan Matthews | R +5.0 |
| 362 | MI-12 | Rashida Tlaib | Steve Elliott | R +5.1 |
| 363 | OR-06 | Andrea Salinas | Mike Erickson | R +5.3 |
| 364 | FL-28 | Robert Asencio | Carlos A. Gimenez | R +5.4 |
| 365 | CA-24 | Salud Carbajal | Brad Allen | R +5.4 |
| 366 | CA-22 | Rudy Salas | David Valadao | R +5.4 |
| 367 | CA-39 | Mark Takano | Aja Smith | R +5.5 |
| 368 | WA-10 | Marilyn Strickland | Keith Swank | R +5.5 |
| 369 | IN-02 | Paul Steury | Rudy Yakym | R +5.5 |
| 370 | WA-01 | Suzan DelBene | Vincent Cavaleri | R +5.6 |
| 371 | IL-02 | Robin Kelly | Thomas Lynch | R +5.6 |
| 372 | CA-26 | Julia Brownley | Matt Jacobs | R +5.7 |
| 373 | CA-31 | Grace Napolitano | Daniel Martinez | R +5.7 |
| 374 | NY-04 | Laura Gillen | Anthony D’Esposito | R +5.7 |
| 375 | NY-02 | Jackie Gordon | Andrew Garbarino | R +5.8 |
| 376 | MS-03 | Shuwaski Young | Michael Guest | R +5.9 |
| 377 | MD-05 | Steny Hoyer | Chris Palombi | R +6.0 |
| 378 | UT-03 | Glenn Wright | John Curtis | R +6.0 |
| 379 | CT-05 | Jahana Hayes | George Logan | R +6.1 |
| 380 | WA-07 | Pramila Jayapal | Cliff Moon | R +6.2 |
| 381 | PA-12 | Summer Lee | Mike Doyle | R +6.4 |
| 382 | VA-10 | Jennifer Wexton | Hung Cao | R +6.5 |
| 383 | NY-16 | Jamaal Bowman | Miriam Flisser | R +6.6 |
| 384 | CA-33 | Pete Aguilar | John Porter | R +6.7 |
| 385 | CA-21 | Jim Costa | Michael Maher | R +6.7 |
| 386 | IL-01 | Jonathan Jackson | Eric Carlson | R +6.8 |
| 387 | NE-03 | David Else | Adrian Smith | R +7.5 |
| 388 | MO-01 | Cori Bush | Andrew Jones | R +7.5 |
| 389 | CA-27 | Christy Smith | Mike Garcia | R +7.5 |
| 390 | CA-35 | Norma Torres | Mike Cargile | R +7.7 |
| 391 | CA-18 | Zoe Lofgren | Peter Hernandez | R +7.7 |
| 392 | FL-26 | Christine Olivo | Mario Diaz-Balart | R +8.2 |
| 393 | CA-38 | Linda Sanchez | Eric Ching | R +8.2 |
| 394 | CT-04 | Jim Himes | Jayme Stevenson | R +8.6 |
| 395 | LA-05 | Various Dems | Julia Letlow | R +9.6 |
| 396 | PA-01 | Ashley Ehasz | Brian Fitzpatrick | R +9.8 |
| 397 | LA-03 | Various Dems | Clay Higgins | R +10.3 |
| 398 | MN-05 | Illhan Omar | Cicely Davis | R +10.4 |
| 399 | KY-06 | Geoff Young | Andy Barr | R +12.2 |
| 400 | WA-04 | Doug White | Dan Newhouse | R +14.1 |
| 401 | OH-10 | David Esrati | Mike Turner | R +14.3 |
Footnote: For those interested, our code and data can be found here, and the shapefile from @cinyc9 here. We would like to thank cinyc, Max McCall and Daily Kos Elections for being data collection resources.
Editor’s Note: On Jan. 21, 2022, the Split Ticket WAR model received a slight methodological upgrade that resulted in minor WAR score changes, though the findings remained directionally the same. The article and associated graphics have been updated to match the new findings.
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