Our 2022 House Wins Above Replacement (WAR) Model

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Our 2020 House wins-above-replacement (WAR) model showed that spending still matters in American politics. Among other things, the new 2022 edition proves that candidate quality, or the lack thereof, can fundamentally impact competitive races.

Controversial contenders paid a bigger penalty across the board this cycle than they did in 2020. In many cases, as 2022’s statewide elections showed, Republicans tended to nominate weaker candidates than Democrats did — perhaps a byproduct of former President Trump’s continuing influence in GOP primaries.

We’ve already examined candidate quality’s impact on senatorial, gubernatorial, and Secretary of State races. Now we’re turning our attention to the recent House of Representative elections to analyze candidate effects in more detail. Namely, how strong was each candidate relative to his or her opposition? How much did the result in any given district differ from the performance that a generic slate of nominees would have been expected to produce?


Our wins-above-replacement metric provides a quantifiable “score” for each district that displays whether the Republican or Democrat performed better relative to data-based expectations. During the design process, our goal was to account for candidate-independent factors intrinsic to every district and the national environment.

We started by controlling for each seat’s racial composition. This was essential given both the strong correlation race has with partisanship and differing electoral patterns observed among distinct demographic groups nationwide. Next, we controlled for district partisanships in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, yielding a good measure of overall lean and expected down-ballot lag.

We then controlled for the midterm shift that districts’ states experienced. As we have previously covered, individual states experienced different environments this year. New York and Florida had massive red waves, whereas Michigan and Colorado swung leftward despite President Biden’s low midterm approval ratings. With this in mind, a Colorado Democrat outrunning Biden seems a lot less impressive than a Democrat in New York City or Florida doing so. Any model quantifying candidate strength should deal with this accordingly.

Lastly, we controlled for a couple of election-specific factors, such as incumbency and money spent by candidates and outside committees. While money’s impact has been declining of late, it still matters, as our 2018 and 2020 models showed.

By accounting for all of these factors, we crafted a measure of candidate strength that answers a simple question: how big was the candidate quality differential on a per-seat basis?

Authors’ Note: We urge appropriate caution when using this metric. Similar to baseball’s wins-above-replacement metric, our model is not granular enough to split candidates by a quarter of a point. It is impossible, for example, to use this metric to determine whether Pat Ryan, whose WAR in NY-18 was D+2.5, was a stronger candidate than Susan Wild, whose WAR in PA-07 was D+2.2. That said, we can use our tool to conclude that both were probably stronger candidates than Eric Sorensen, whose WAR was D+0.7 in IL-17.


Democrats Overperformed in Battleground Districts

One key question many observers had in the wake of the 2022 election cycle was whether swing seat Democrats overperformed more than swing seat Republicans. The evidence we have indicates that was the case.

We classify districts as battlegrounds if they voted within 10 points of the nation in 2020, or have an opposite party incumbent despite lying outside of this partisanship range. (In TX-34 we factored in both incumbents). Of the 82 House districts in the battleground category, Democrats overperformed in 46 compared to the Republicans’ 34 ー a stark reinforcement of the candidate quality points discussed above.

The evidence suggests Republicans’ 222-213 House majority is also slightly smaller than it could have and should have been with better nominees, giving Democrats an easier path to winning back the House in 2024 even with expected redistricting in North Carolina and Ohio. In other words, the GOP has a candidate problem where it counts the most: swing districts. Even if Republicans had had a better national environment on Nov. 8, candidate effects likely still would have limited their majority.

Democrats Probably Won More House Seats Than They Should Have

By numerically quantifying underperformance, the WAR model allows us to estimate which House races would have had different outcomes if “generic pairs” of Republican and Democratic candidates had been nominated. For example, which Democratic-won seats would have flipped Republican with a more standardized set of nominees? Our conclusions suggest that along with their disproportionate battleground nominee strength, Democrats won one more seat in 2022 than they would have with generic nominee pairs.

The table above also indicates that the GOP had a bigger candidate quality problem than Democrats did. Of the 15 House seats that our findings suggest would have voted differently had generic nominees been on the ballot, a majority (9) ended up in the Democratic column.

A look at the campaigns waged in some of the districts mentioned shows exactly why this was the case. In OH-09 and AK-AL, both Trump-won districts, Democrats Marcy Kaptur and Mary Peltola won comfortably thanks both to low-quality opponents and their compelling personal brands.

Kaptur has served in Congress since 1983 and enjoys strong union connections in a working class, traditionally-Democratic seat. Her challenger, J.R. Majewski, beat two credible state legislators in the GOP primary despite never having held elected office. National Republicans later cut Majewski off from their spending apparatus after allegations surfaced that he misconstrued his military service record.

Peltola, who won a stunning upset in an August special election to replace the late House Dean Don Young, managed to establish a reliable brand much faster, exemplified by her “fish, family, freedom” slogan. Former Governor Sarah Palin, whom Peltola beat in two instant-runoffs, suffered from high unfavorability ratings and a string of controversies dating back to her 2008 Republican Vice Presidential nomination.

Ranked-choice voting undoubtedly enabled Peltola’s initial election in August, but the scale of her recent victory for a full term suggests that she likely would have won under the conventional system too. Pre-election polls showed her beating both Begich and Palin in head-to-heads.

Strong Democratic incumbents like Jared Golden (ME-02) and Matt Cartwright (PA-08) benefitted from the same dynamic in Republican-trending, Trump-won seats. Challengers Bruce Poliquin and Jim Bognet were more conventional candidates, but the GOP would have needed some extraordinary recruits to flip both districts.

Republicans Bo Hines and Joe Kent also cost the GOP two open seats: NC-13, and WA-03. The first one, based primarily in the suburbs Raleigh, marginally backed Biden in 2020 and comfortably elected experienced state legislator Wiley Nickel this cycle. Despite his relative youth and inexperience, Hines probably suffered most among swing voters because of their strong ties to Trump.

The second district, a historically-inelastic Trump +4 seat in southwestern Washington, wouldn’t have been that competitive without the former President’s influence. Moderate Republican Jaime Herrera-Beutler lost the jungle primary to far-right challenger Joe Kent and Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez after voting to impeach Trump following January 6th. Gluesenkamp Perez eventually pulled off an upset in a race that Kent had been favored to win despite his controversial bid.

Henry Cuellar, a long-time Democratic incumbent and top overperformer, is not on the above list because TX-28, though Republican-trending, still broke for Biden by 7 points. In other words, a generic Democrat would have been expected to hold onto the seat. Only Cuellar could have won by 13, though, a sign that his Politiquero pedigree continues to hold weight in South Texas.

Zapata County (Trump +5), for instance, supported Cuellar by 46 while maintaining near presidential turnout. Strengthened by his Catholic background and social conservatism, Cuellar’s regional pull overshadowed an FBI investigation into accusations of illicit dealings with Azerbaijan and delivered him a cakewalk victory against otherwise-credible Republican Cassy Garcia.

Similar candidate quality dynamics also helped victorious Republicans, though to a lesser extent. All six of the seats Democrats would have been expected to win under generic conditions are within the states of New York, California, and Oregon ー each of which lurched significantly rightward between 2020 and 2022.

In the Golden State, Republicans Mike Garcia (CA-27) and David Valadao (CA-22) maximized crossover appeal to win reelection in double-digit Biden seats made bluer in redistricting. Democrats simply did not get the challengers that they needed to match such formidable opposition. Meanwhile, in the east, a similarly strong incumbent was moderate Republican Brian Fitzpatrick, who retained his Biden +5 PA-01 at a canter, despite our model suggesting that his seat should have flipped in what was an exceptionally tough cycle for Pennsylvania Republicans. Even if the national environment is bluer in 2024 (a presidential cycle), national Republicans worried about their House majority may take solace in the strength of Garcia, Fitzpatrick and Valadao.

Our most surprising finding is perhaps NY-17, which DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney narrowly lost to challenger Mike Lawler. This Biden +10 seat, primarily based in Westchester County, divides New York City and Upstate New York. Republicans invested heavily in the 17th to take down Maloney, a historically strong incumbent with leadership status.

In the wake of his loss, the ex-congressman blamed Governor Kathy Hochul’s underperformance for his defeat. While this certainly contributed to his loss, our model suggests that a generic Democratic incumbent still should have beaten a standard Republican; the WAR score for NY-17 was R+2.7, and the seat was decided by just 0.6%. It is difficult to subjectively determine how much of the outcome depended on Lawler’s strengths or Maloney’s weaknesses, but there are indications that the incumbent’s own choices may have cost him reelection.

Maloney’s biggest faux pas was deciding to run in NY-17, which overlapped with just 25% of his original seat. His move pushed out fellow congressman Mondaire Jones, fueling bad blood among new constituents and lessening the benefits incumbents normally accrue from district ties. Unwise in any situation, taking on new turf proved especially dangerous this cycle given New York’s palpable rightward shift.

The DCCC Chair’s past victories established his reputation as a strong incumbent, an accolade confirmed by his D+6.4 wins-above-replacement score from 2020. Switching districts ultimately had a negative impact on his crossover potential. Had Maloney stayed in NY-18 (Biden +8) he probably would have held on, a possibility confirmed by Pat Ryan’s victory in the same seat in November.

Extreme Candidates Likely Paid An Electoral Penalty

Our district findings do indeed suggest that “extremist” candidates often struggle to consolidate support, especially in swing districts where persuadable voters can mean the difference between close races and blowouts. Four of the worst performing Democratic and Republican incumbents of 2022 could be classified as “fringe” members: Cori Bush (MO-01), Ilhan Omar (MN-05), Majorie Taylor Greene (GA-14) and Lauren Boebert (CO-03).

Bush and Omar, representing the St. Louis and Minneapolis-St. Paul metros, respectively, are among the House’s most progressive members — referred to as “the squad”. Greene serves rural northwestern Georgia and Boebert Colorado’s Western Slope.

Of these four representatives, three also underperformed according to the 2020 WAR model (with Cori Bush being the lone exception). This is hardly surprising, considering Split Ticket’s prior discovery that extreme candidates tend to pay electoral penalties, an ideological quandary we plan on analyzing in a followup article.

Omar, for example, ran behind Biden more than any other incumbent Democrat in 2020 (-17.3), nearly lost her last primary, and underperformed by 9.1 points in 2022. Unlike swing district underperformers, though, Omar will have no issues winning future reelections in her Biden +64 seat as long as she secures the Democratic nomination — a glaring uncertainty at best.

Boebert, meanwhile, proved that a mixture of poor candidate quality and a hostile political environment can endanger competitive seats — even when they have a decided lean toward one party. CO-03, her Trump +8 district, did vote for Governor Jared Polis, but it is hard to argue that a mainstream incumbent like Scott Tipton, whom Boebert beat in the 2020 primary, wouldn’t have won by more than 546 votes. In other words, her win was extremely underwhelming by any standard, even after accounting for the awful night that Colorado Republicans had.


If there was ever an environment or a cycle to remind us that candidate quality was still important, then 2022 was probably it. Across every major office and chamber, one thing was clear: candidate quality mattered, and it mattered enough to change the results of several races.

In hindsight, this is not a surprise, even with the acceleration of polarization. Voters are not robots, and the electorate responds negatively against candidates who are viewed as out of step, disconnected, or extreme, just as they still respond positively to good candidates who work for all constituents.

It is still possible to reach voters on the other side and in the middle while still turning out your own base. It is what many strong candidates do, and it is how several elections were won in this cycle. Our model is just one way of quantifying a candidate’s strength, but it is, to our knowledge, currently the only such metric out there. We hope that you find it informative in learning about how candidates performed and how and where elections were won and lost.

Searchable Table

This table is best viewed on desktop, where it is searchable and paginated. For an optimal mobile view, see the interactive version, which can be found here.

1NY-09Yvette ClarkeMenachem Raitport (C)D +20.6
2AK-ALMary PeltolaSarah PalinD +18.0
3HI-01Ed CaseConrad KressD +17.5
4OH-09Marcy KapturJR MajewskiD +14.8
5ND-ALCara Mund (I)Kelly ArmstrongD +14.5
6NJ-08Rob MenendezMarcos ArroyoD +11.3
7NY-26Brian HigginsSteven SamsD +11.2
8TX-28Henry CuellarCassy GarciaD +11.1
9TX-29Sylvia GarciaRobert SchafranekD +10.3
10FL-01Rebekah JonesMatt GaetzD +10.2
11GA-14Marcus FlowersMarjorie Taylor GreeneD +10.2
12CO-03Adam FrischLauren BoebertD +10.1
13TX-20Joaquin CastroKyle SinclairD +9.2
14CT-02Joe CourtneyMike FranceD +9.1
15PA-02Brendan BoyleAaron BashirD +8.9
16LA-02Troy CarterDan LuxD +8.7
17NY-07Nydia VelazquezJuan PaganD +8.5
18WV-02Barry Lee WendellAlex MooneyD +8.4
19FL-13Eric LynnAnna Paulina LunaD +8.0
20ME-02Jared GoldenBruce PoliquinD +7.5
21NY-10Dan GoldmanBenine HamdanD +7.4
22TX-37Lloyd DoggettJenny Garcia SharonD +7.3
23NY-06Grace MengThomas ZmichD +7.1
24UT-04Darlene McDonaldBurgess OwensD +7.0
25MD-01Heather MizeurAndy HarrisD +6.4
26KS-03Sharice DavidsAmanda AdkinsD +6.2
27NY-15Ritchie TorresStylo SapaskisD +6.1
28MT-01Monica TranelRyan ZinkeD +6.0
29TX-09Al GreenJimmy LeonD +6.0
30NY-21Matt CastelliElise StefanikD +5.9
31MI-08Dan KildeePaul JungeD +5.9
32CA-41Will RollinsKen CalvertD +5.8
33MI-03Hillary ScholtenJohn GibbsD +5.6
34LA-01Katie DarlingSteve SclaiseD +5.4
35GA-13David ScottCaesar GonzalesD +5.4
36NJ-01Donald NorcrossClaire GustafsonD +5.4
37NJ-11Mikie SherrillPaul DeGrootD +5.2
38NC-13Wiley NickelBo HinesD +5.2
39IN-06Cinde WirthGreg PenceD +5.1
40WA-03Marie Gluesenkamp PerezJoe KentD +5.1
41PA-08Matt CartwrightJim BognetD +5.1
42TX-13Kathleen BrownRonny JacksonD +5.1
43OH-13Emilia SykesMadison GesiottoD +5.0
44TX-35Greg CasarDan McQueenD +5.0
45SC-01Annie AndrewsNancy MaceD +4.6
46TN-06Randal CooperJohn RoseD +4.4
47IL-13Nikki BudzinskiRegan DeeringD +4.3
48FL-24Frederica WilsonJesus NavarroD +4.3
49KY-03Morgan McGarveyStuart RayD +4.2
50TX-32Colin AllredAntonio SwadD +4.2
51CA-28Judy ChuWes HallmanD +4.2
52TX-21Claudia ZapataChip RoyD +4.2
53AZ-03Ruben GallegoJeff ZinkD +4.1
54NY-19Josh RileyMarc MolinaroD +4.0
55TX-27Maclovio PerezMichael CloudD +4.0
56AZ-05Javier RamosAndy BiggsD +4.0
57CA-25Raul RuizBrian HawkinsD +3.8
58CA-12Barbara LeeStephen SlausonD +3.8
59PA-16Dan PastoreMike KellyD +3.8
60TX-24Jan McdowellBeth Van DuyneD +3.7
61OH-04Tamie WilsonJim JordanD +3.6
62TX-02Robin FulfordDan CrenshawD +3.5
63MD-04Glenn IveyJeff WarnerD +3.5
64TX-30Jasmine CrockettJames RodgersD +3.5
65CA-07Doris MatsuiMax SemenenkoD +3.4
66MA-08Stephen LynchRobert BurkeD +3.4
67MO-03Bethany MannBlaine LuetkemeyerD +3.4
68CA-48Stephen HoulahanDarrell IssaD +3.4
69WV-01Lacy WatsonCarol MillerD +3.3
70TN-05Heidi CampbellAndy OglesD +3.2
71VA-01Herb JonesRob WittmanD +3.2
72IN-08Ray McCormickLarry BucshonD +3.1
73AZ-06Kirsten EngelJuan CiscomaniD +3.1
74NJ-03Andy KimBob Healey Jr.D +3.1
75MI-10Carl MarlingaJohn JamesD +3.0
76FL-14Kathy CastorJames JudgeD +3.0
77NV-03Susie LeeApril BeckerD +2.9
78CA-01Max SteinerDoug LaMalfaD +2.9
79ID-02Wendy NormanMike SimpsonD +2.9
80MI-07Elissa SlotkinTom BarrettD +2.8
81IL-09Jan SchakowskyMax RiceD +2.8
82KS-02Patrick SchmidtJake LaTurnerD +2.7
83OK-04Mary BrannonTom ColeD +2.7
84IA-01Christina BohannanMariannette Miller-MeeksD +2.7
85TX-18Sheila Jackson LeeCarmen Maria MontielD +2.7
86FL-03Danielle HawkKat CammackD +2.6
87AZ-01Jevin HodgeDavid SchweikertD +2.6
88FL-07Karen GreenCory MillsD +2.6
89CA-20Marisa WoodKevin McCarthyD +2.6
90IA-03Cindy AxneZach NunnD +2.6
91NY-18Pat RyanColin SchmittD +2.5
92IL-05Mike QuigleyTommy HansonD +2.5
93TX-07Lizzie FletcherJohnny TeagueD +2.5
94NV-01Dina TitusMark RobertsonD +2.4
95AZ-04Greg StantonKelly CooperD +2.4
96TX-36Jon HaireBrian BabinD +2.4
97PA-11Bob HollisterLloyd SmuckerD +2.3
98RI-01David CicilllineAllen WatersD +2.3
99PA-10Shamaine DanielsScott PerryD +2.3
100IA-02Liz MathisAshley HinsonD +2.3
101FL-22Lois FrankelDaniel FranzeseD +2.3
102NM-03Teresa Leger FernandezAlexis Martinez JohnsonD +2.3
103PA-07Susan WildLisa SchellerD +2.2
104TX-05Tartisha HillLance GoodenD +2.2
105CA-08John GaramendiRudy RecileD +2.2
106IN-05Jeannine Lee LakeVictoria SpartzD +2.2
107PA-04Madeleine DeanChristian NascimentoD +2.2
108MI-06Debbie DingellWhittney WilliamsD +2.2
109MO-08Randi McCallianJason SmithD +2.2
110FL-12Kimberly WalkerGus BilirakisD +2.2
111GA-04Hank JohnsonJonathan ChavezD +2.1
112KY-04Matt LehmanThomas MassieD +2.1
113MN-01Jeff EttingerBrad FinstadD +2.1
114TX-33Marc VeaseyPatrick GillespieD +2.1
115NJ-05Josh GottheimerFrank PallottaD +2.1
116VA-07Abigail SpanbergerYesli VegaD +2.0
117OH-07Matthew DiemerMax MillerD +2.0
118CA-52Juan VargasTyler GeffeneyD +2.0
119WI-03Brad PfaffDerrick Van OrdenD +2.0
120CA-09Josh HarderTom PattiD +2.0
121FL-02Al LawsonNeal DunnD +2.0
122MO-02Trish GunbyAnn WagnerD +2.0
123NC-11Jasmine Beach-FerreraChuck EdwardsD +1.9
124MD-07Kweisi MfumeScott CollierD +1.9
125TN-01Cameron ParsonsDiana HarshbargerD +1.8
126PA-09Amanda WaldmanDan MeuserD +1.8
127PA-17Chris DeluzioJeremy ShafferD +1.7
128NC-07Charles GrahamDavid RouzerD +1.7
129NY-22Francis ConoleBrandon WilliamsD +1.7
130MI-02Jerry HilliardJohn MoolenaarD +1.6
131TX-15Michelle VallejoMonica De La CruzD +1.6
132VT-ALBecca BalintLiam MaddenD +1.6
133CA-02Jared HuffmanDouglas BrowerD +1.5
134NC-09Ben ClarkRichard HudsonD +1.5
135TN-07Odessa KellyMark GreenD +1.4
136NC-14Jeff JacksonPat HarriganD +1.4
137CA-36Ted LieuJoe Collins IIID +1.4
138FL-25Debbie Wasserman SchultzCarla SpaldingD +1.4
139WY-ALLynnette Grey BullHarriet HagemanD +1.3
140AR-03Lauren Mallett-HaysSteve WomackD +1.3
141NJ-06Frank PalloneSue KileyD +1.3
142WI-02Mark PocanErik OlsenD +1.3
143VA-09Taysha DeVaughanMorgan GriffithD +1.3
144OH-01Greg LandsmanSteve ChabotD +1.3
145FL-08Joanne TerryBill PoseyD +1.3
146TN-09Steve CohenCharlotte BergmannD +1.2
147FL-23Jared MoskowitzJoe BuddD +1.2
148CA-04Mike ThompsonMatt BrockD +1.2
149MI-13Shri ThanedarMartell BivingsD +1.2
150OK-05Joshua Harris-TillStephanie BiceD +1.2
151FL-27Annette TaddeoMaria Elvira SalazarD +1.2
152MA-02Jim McGovernJeffrey Sossa-PaquetteD +1.2
153GA-09Mike FordAndrew ClydeD +1.1
154PA-15Mike MolesevichGlenn ThompsonD +1.1
155CA-44Nanette BarraganPaul JonesD +1.1
156SC-02Judd LarkinsJoe WilsonD +1.1
157CA-19Jimmy PanettaJeff GormanD +1.1
158FL-17Andrea KaleGreg SteubeD +1.1
159NC-05Kyle ParrishVirginia FoxxD +1.1
160NC-02Deborah RossChristine VillaverdeD +1.1
161IN-09Matthew FyfeErin HouchinD +1.0
162PA-06Chrissy HoulahanGuy CiarrocchiD +1.0
163GA-01Wade HerringBuddy CarterD +1.0
164NJ-10Donald Payne Jr.David PinckneyD +1.0
165TN-02Mark HarmonTim BurchettD +0.9
166FL-20Sheila Cherfilus-McCormickDrew-Montez ClarkD +0.9
167UT-02Nick MitchellChris StewartD +0.9
168NE-01Patty Pansing BrooksMike FloodD +0.9
169CA-03Kermit JonesKevin KileyD +0.8
170GA-03Val AlmondDrew FergusonD +0.8
171CO-07Brittany PettersenErik AadlandD +0.8
172AR-01Monte HodgesRick CrawfordD +0.8
173CA-32Brad ShermanLucie VolotzkyD +0.8
174IL-17Eric SorensenEsther Joy KingD +0.7
175TX-10Linda NunoMichae McCaulD +0.7
176CA-51Sara JacobsStan CaplanD +0.7
177NV-04Steven HorsfordSam PetersD +0.6
178MD-08Jamie RaskinGregory CollD +0.6
179TX-34Vicente GonzalezMayra FloresD +0.6
180NC-04Valerie FousheeCourtney GeelsD +0.6
181VA-06Jennifer LewisBen ClineD +0.6
182IN-03Gary SnyderJim BanksD +0.5
183FL-19Cindy BanyaiByron DonaldsD +0.4
184TX-12Trey HuntKay GrangerD +0.4
185MI-11Haley StevensMark AmbroseD +0.4
186NY-12Jerry NadlerMichael ZumbluskasD +0.4
187MN-06Jeanne HendricksTom EmmerD +0.4
188FL-16Jan SchneiderVern BuchananD +0.4
189TX-22Jamie JordanTroy NehlsD +0.4
190IL-11Bill FosterCataline LaufD +0.3
191CA-45Jay ChenMichelle SteelD +0.3
192TX-38Duncan KlussmannWesley HuntD +0.2
193AL-07Terri SewellBeatrice NicholsD +0.2
194NC-10Pam GenantPatrick McHenryD +0.2
195GA-02Sanford BishopChris WestD +0.1
196NH-01Chris PappasKaroline LeavittD +0.1
197TN-03Meg GormanChuck FleischmannD +0.1
198MA-03Lori TrahanDean TranD +0.0
199IN-01Frank MrvanJennfier-Ruth GreenD +0.0
200OR-04Val HoyleAlek SkarlatosR +0.0
201IL-10Brad SchneiderJoseph SeverinoR +0.1
202GA-10Tabitha Johnson-GreenMike CollinsR +0.1
203TX-23John LiraTony GonzalesR +0.1
204CO-01Diana DeGetteJennier QualteriR +0.1
205KS-04Bob HernandezRon EstesR +0.1
206TX-17Mary Jo WoodsPete SessionsR +0.1
207OK-02Naomi AndrewsJosh BrecheenR +0.1
208GA-05Nikema WilliamsChristian ZimmR +0.1
209OH-02Samantha MeadowsBrad WenstrupR +0.1
210MI-09Brian JayeLisa McClainR +0.1
211WI-04Gwen MooreTim RogersR +0.2
212OR-03Earl BlumenauerJoanna HarbourR +0.2
213IL-06Sean CastenKeith PekauR +0.2
214FL-04LaShonda HollowayAaron BeanR +0.2
215FL-09Darren SotoScotty MooreR +0.3
216IL-15Paul LangeMary MillerR +0.3
217KY-02Hank LindermanBrett GuthrieR +0.3
218MN-02Angie CraigTyler KistnerR +0.4
219WA-06Derek KilmerElizabeth KreiselmaierR +0.4
220NC-08Scott HuffmanDan BishopR +0.4
221IN-04Roger DayJim BairdR +0.4
222AZ-02Tom O’HalleranEli CraneR +0.4
223NY-20Paul TonkoLiz JoyR +0.4
224IL-08Raja KrishnamoorthiChris DargisR +0.5
225NY-01Bridget FlemingNick LaLotaR +0.5
226MN-08Jennifer SchultzPete StauberR +0.5
227IL-03Delia RamirezJustin BurauR +0.5
228VA-03Bobby ScottTerry NamkungR +0.5
229MD-06David TroneNeil ParrottR +0.5
230VA-05Joshua ThroneburgBob GoodR +0.7
231NY-24Steve HoldenClaudia TenneyR +0.7
232WA-08Kim SchrierMatt LarkinR +0.8
233KY-05Conor HalbleibHal RogersR +0.8
234CA-05MIke BarkleyTom McClintockR +0.8
235TX-04Iro OmerePat FallonR +0.8
236ME-01Chellie PingreeEd ThelanderR +0.8
237MN-03Dean PhillipsTom WeilerR +0.9
238CA-49Mike LevinBrian MaryottR +0.9
239HI-02Jill TokudaJoe AkanaR +0.9
240CO-02Joe NeguseMarshall DawsonR +1.0
241NJ-12Bonnie Watson ColemanDarius MayfieldR +1.0
242GA-07Lucy McBathMark GonsalvesR +1.0
243MO-05Emanuel CleaverJacob TurkR +1.0
244MA-01Richard NealDean MartilliR +1.1
245MO-06Henry MartinSam GravesR +1.1
246CA-17Ro KhannaRitesh TandonR +1.1
247TX-08Laura JonesMorgan LuttrellR +1.1
248MO-07Kristen Radaker-SheaferEric BurlisonR +1.1
249OR-01Suzanne BonamiciChristopher MannR +1.1
250CA-42Robert GarciaJohn BriscoeR +1.2
251MA-06Seth MoultonBob MayR +1.2
252FL-15Alan CohnLaurel LeeR +1.2
253NJ-07Tom MalinowskiTom Kean Jr.R +1.2
254OK-03Jeremiah RossFrank LucasR +1.2
255NM-02Gabe VasquezYvette HerrellR +1.3
256OH-15Gary JosephsonMike CareyR +1.3
257KY-01Jimmy AusbrooksJames ComerR +1.3
258OH-08Vanessa EnochWarren DavidsonR +1.3
259CT-01John LarsonLarry LazorR +1.3
260CO-05David TorresDoug LambornR +1.3
261IL-12Chip MarkelMike BostR +1.4
262NY-05Gregory MeeksPaul KingR +1.4
263MA-09Bill KeatingJesse BrownR +1.4
264SC-05Evangeline HundleyRalph NormanR +1.5
265CT-03Rosa DeLauroLesley DeNardisR +1.5
266NY-11Max RoseNicole MalliotakisR +1.5
267MS-02Bennie ThompsonBrain FlowersR +1.5
268WI-07Richard AusmanTom TiffanyR +1.5
269AR-04John WhiteBruce WestermanR +1.6
270VA-02Elaine LuriaJen KiggansR +1.6
271FL-10Maxwell FrostCalvin WimbishR +1.6
272MI-05Bart GoldbergTim WalbergR +1.6
273MD-02Dutch RuppersbergerNicolee AmbroseR +1.6
274OK-01Adam MartinKevin HernR +1.7
275MA-07Ayanna PressleyDonnie PalmerR +1.7
276PA-05Mary Gay ScanlonDavid GalluchR +1.7
277WI-05Mike Van SomerenScott FitzgeraldR +1.7
278FL-21Corinna Balderramos RobinsonBrian MastR +1.7
279TN-04Wayne SteeleScott DesJarlaisR +1.8
280NY-14Alexandria Ocasio-CortezTina ForteR +1.8
281CA-46Lou CorreaChristopher GonzalesR +1.8
282GA-11Antonio DazaBarry LoudermilkR +1.8
283NH-02Annie KusterRobert BurnsR +1.8
284NV-02Elizabeth KrauseMark AmodeiR +1.9
285ID-01Kaylee PetersonRuss FulcherR +2.0
286NC-01Don DavisSandy SmithR +2.0
287WA-09Adam SmithDoug BaslerR +2.0
288OH-05Craig SwartzBob LattaR +2.1
289MN-04Betty McCollumMay Lor XiongR +2.1
290AZ-07Raul GrijalvaLuis PozzoloR +2.1
291NY-08Hakeem JeffriesYuri DashevskyR +2.1
292AL-04Rick NeighborsRobert AderholtR +2.2
293TX-14Mikal WilliamsRandy WeberR +2.2
294CA-43Maxine WatersOmar NavarroR +2.2
295CA-06Ami BeraTamika HamiltonR +2.2
296NE-02Tony VargasDon BaconR +2.3
297AL-02Phyllis Harvey-HallBarry MooreR +2.3
298NC-03Barbara GaskinsGreg MurphyR +2.3
299CO-06Jason CrowSteven MonahanR +2.3
300VA-04Donald McEachinLeon BenjaminR +2.3
301FL-11Shante MunnsDaniel WebsterR +2.3
302KS-01Jimmy BeardTracey MannR +2.4
303CA-47Katie PorterScott BaughR +2.4
304NC-12Alma AdamsTyler LeeR +2.4
305IL-14Lauren UnderwoodScott GryderR +2.4
306GA-12Liz JohnsonRick AllenR +2.5
307GA-08Darrius ButlerAustin ScottR +2.5
308IN-07Andre CarsonAngela GrabovskyR +2.5
309VA-08Don BeyerKarina LipsmanR +2.5
310CO-08Yadira CaraveoBarbara KirkmeyerR +2.5
311NY-17Sean Patrick MaloneyMike LawlerR +2.7
312GA-06Bob ChristianRich McCormickR +2.7
313TX-03Sandeep SrivastavaKeith SelfR +2.7
314MI-01Bob LorinserJack BergmanR +2.7
315MI-04Joseph AlfonsoBill HuizengaR +2.7
316NJ-09Bill PascrellBilly PrempehR +2.7
317MS-04Johnny DuPreeMike EzellR +2.8
318MN-07Jill AbahsainMichelle FischbachR +2.8
319AR-02Quintessa HathawayFrench HillR +2.9
320WI-01Ann RoeBryan SteilR +2.9
321NC-06Kathy ManningChristian CastelliR +2.9
322OH-11Shontel BrownEric BrewerR +2.9
323CO-04Ike McCorkleKen BuckR +3.0
324NY-23Max Della PiaNick LangworthyR +3.0
325RI-02Seth MagazinerAllan FungR +3.0
326CA-23Derek MarshallJay OdernolteR +3.1
327OH-12Amy Rippel-EltonTroy BaldersonR +3.1
328MS-01Dianne BlackTrent KellyR +3.1
329OR-02Joe YetterCliff BentzR +3.1
330UT-01Rick JonesBlake MooreR +3.2
331OH-06Louis LyrasBill JohnsonR +3.2
332IL-04Chuy GarciaJames FalakosR +3.3
333NY-03Robert ZimmermanGeorge SantosR +3.3
334MD-03John SarbanesYuripzy MorganR +3.3
335CA-13Adam GrayJohn DuarteR +3.3
336IA-04Ryan MeltonRandy FeenstraR +3.3
337TX-16Veronica EscobarIrene Armendariz-JacksonR +3.4
338VA-11Gerry ConnollyJames MylesR +3.5
339CA-14Eric SwalwellAlison HaydenR +3.5
340OH-03Joyce BeattyLee StahleyR +3.5
341MA-05Katherine ClarkCaroline ColarussoR +3.5
342IL-16Elizabeth HaderleinDarin LaHoodR +3.6
343CA-11Nancy PelosiJohn DennisR +3.7
344AL-03Lin VeaseyMike RogersR +3.8
345MO-04Jack TrumanMark AlfordR +3.8
346NY-25Joseh MorelleLa’Ron SingletaryR +3.9
347NJ-04Matthew JenkinsChris SmithR +3.9
348SC-07Daryl ScottRussell FryR +4.0
349CA-50Scott PetersCorey GustafsonR +4.1
350TX-01Jrmar JeffersonNathaniel MoranR +4.1
351OH-14Matt KilboyDavid JoyceR +4.2
352AL-05Kathy Warner-StantonDale StrongR +4.3
353SC-06Jim ClyburnDuke BucknerR +4.4
354CA-40Asif MahmoodYoung KimR +4.4
355NJ-02Tim AlexanderJeff Van DrewR +4.4
356WA-05Natasha HillCathy McMorris RodgersR +4.5
357NM-01Melanie StansburyMichelle Garcia HolmesR +4.7
358TN-08Lynnette WilliamsDavid KustoffR +4.9
359OR-05Jamie McLeod-SkinnerLori Chavez-DeRemerR +4.9
360DE-ALLisa Blunt RochesterLee MurphyR +5.0
361WA-02Rick LarsenDan MatthewsR +5.0
362MI-12Rashida TlaibSteve ElliottR +5.1
363OR-06Andrea SalinasMike EricksonR +5.3
364FL-28Robert AsencioCarlos A. GimenezR +5.4
365CA-24Salud CarbajalBrad AllenR +5.4
366CA-22Rudy SalasDavid ValadaoR +5.4
367CA-39Mark TakanoAja SmithR +5.5
368WA-10Marilyn StricklandKeith SwankR +5.5
369IN-02Paul SteuryRudy YakymR +5.5
370WA-01Suzan DelBeneVincent CavaleriR +5.6
371IL-02Robin KellyThomas LynchR +5.6
372CA-26Julia BrownleyMatt JacobsR +5.7
373CA-31Grace NapolitanoDaniel MartinezR +5.7
374NY-04Laura GillenAnthony D’EspositoR +5.7
375NY-02Jackie GordonAndrew GarbarinoR +5.8
376MS-03Shuwaski YoungMichael GuestR +5.9
377MD-05Steny HoyerChris PalombiR +6.0
378UT-03Glenn WrightJohn CurtisR +6.0
379CT-05Jahana HayesGeorge LoganR +6.1
380WA-07Pramila JayapalCliff MoonR +6.2
381PA-12Summer LeeMike DoyleR +6.4
382VA-10Jennifer WextonHung CaoR +6.5
383NY-16Jamaal BowmanMiriam FlisserR +6.6
384CA-33Pete AguilarJohn PorterR +6.7
385CA-21Jim CostaMichael MaherR +6.7
386IL-01Jonathan JacksonEric CarlsonR +6.8
387NE-03David ElseAdrian SmithR +7.5
388MO-01Cori BushAndrew JonesR +7.5
389CA-27Christy SmithMike GarciaR +7.5
390CA-35Norma TorresMike CargileR +7.7
391CA-18Zoe LofgrenPeter HernandezR +7.7
392FL-26Christine OlivoMario Diaz-BalartR +8.2
393CA-38Linda SanchezEric ChingR +8.2
394CT-04Jim HimesJayme StevensonR +8.6
395LA-05Various DemsJulia LetlowR +9.6
396PA-01Ashley EhaszBrian FitzpatrickR +9.8
397LA-03Various DemsClay HigginsR +10.3
398MN-05Illhan OmarCicely DavisR +10.4
399KY-06Geoff YoungAndy BarrR +12.2
400WA-04Doug WhiteDan NewhouseR +14.1
401OH-10David EsratiMike TurnerR +14.3

Footnote: For those interested, our code and data can be found here, and the shapefile from @cinyc9 here. We would like to thank cinyc, Max McCall and Daily Kos Elections for being data collection resources.

Editor’s Note: On Jan. 21, 2022, the Split Ticket WAR model received a slight methodological upgrade that resulted in minor WAR score changes, though the findings remained directionally the same. The article and associated graphics have been updated to match the new findings.

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