Category: House 2022

• House Primary Recap: 8/2

  *All numbers current as of publication per New York Times* Arizona AZ-01 Likely Schweikert (Predicted Correctly) In Arizona’s 1st district, incumbent Republican David Schweikert won renomination with 43% of the vote. His nearest opponent, businessman Elijah Norton, took 33%. Given the incumbent’s relatively-low share of the vote, it is probable that he would have lost […]

  Harrison Lavelle

  August 3, 2022

  House 2022, Primaries

• 8/2 House Primary Watchlist

  Introduction For the first time since June, Split Ticket will be providing full coverage of a nationwide primary date. This week’s races will occur across five states: Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington. Most of the attention thus far has been directed at competitive Republican primaries for Senate and Governor, but there is plenty of […]

  Harrison Lavelle

  August 2, 2022

  House 2022, Primaries, Ratings

• Maryland House Primary + House Ratings Changes

  Maryland House Much like New York’s, Maryland’s initial redistricting proposal was struck down by the courts before it could have electoral effect. No one is happier about the ruling than 1st district Republican Andy Harris. His current Trump +20 seat is based around the Eastern Shore and exurbs of Baltimore like Bel Air (Harford). Harris […]

  Harrison Lavelle

  July 19, 2022

  Governor 2022, House 2022, Primaries, Ratings

  Redistricting

• Vulnerable Incumbents: Primary Edition

  Introduction It is rare for sitting members of the House to lose renomination because they tend to have advantages in terms of fundraising and name recognition. Outsider victories have traditionally been possible only under unique circumstances involving scandal, intra-party ideological chafing, or concentrated electoral weakness. Given the above points, it should not be surprising that […]

  Harrison Lavelle

  July 7, 2022

  House 2022, Primaries, Ratings

  Historical

• NE-01: Implications, or not?

  Background Both the new and old versions of Nebraska’s 1st district are reliably-Republican seats on paper, which is why Tuesday’s surprisingly-competitive special election barely received attention over the last few months. There is certainly no reason to blame the election world for missing this race, because no one’s fundamentals suggested it would be of interest. […]

  Harrison Lavelle

  June 30, 2022

  House 2022, Primaries, Ratings

• 6/28 Primary Recap – The Last Super Tuesday

  Primary Recap – Important Developments *A specific piece focusing solely on the implications of the special election in Nebraska’s 1st will be published tomorrow* Colorado The Colorado GOP had an excellent night in statewide primaries on Tuesday. Extreme candidates Ron Hanks, Greg Lopez, and Tina Peters all lost to mainstream challengers who are perceived as […]

  Harrison Lavelle

  June 29, 2022

  House 2022, Primaries

• 6/28 House Watchlist

  Colorado For more detailed analysis by Colorado expert Armin Thomas and Lakshya Jain, check out the Centennial State preview here. The 3rd district takes in much of western and south-central Colorado. It is composed of a diverse set of political constituencies: conservative bastions like Grand Junction, liberal extensions of ‘Ski Country’ like Aspen or Gunnison, […]

  Harrison Lavelle

  June 28, 2022

  House 2022, Primaries, Ratings

  Redistricting

• Our Final 2022 Colorado Primary Preview

  On Tuesday, Colorado will hold its primary elections. At stake in the many contests is the statewide direction of both parties and their narrative heading into the midterm elections. Because of the many races on the ballot, we’ve decided to publish a separate article solely previewing Colorado, and we’ll lead off with the statewide races […]

  arminthomas and Lakshya Jain

  June 27, 2022

  Governor 2022, House 2022, Primaries, Ratings, Senate 2022

  Colorado, Redistricting

• 6/21 Recap & June House Update

  Primary Recap Virginia In Virginia 2nd’s district, state Senator Jen Kiggans comfortably won the GOP nomination with 56% of the vote. She defeated three opponents running to her right, including Navy veteran Jarome Bell. Her strongest district-wide margin came from Virginia Beach County, where she took 63%. She performed worst in Accomack County, which Bell […]

  Harrison Lavelle

  June 24, 2022

  House 2022, Primaries, Ratings, Senate 2022

  Redistricting

• 6/21 House Watchlist: VA, GA, & AL

  Introduction This week, six important Republican House primaries will be occurring in the south. Three of these races are runoffs happening in Georgia, with two of them (GA-06 & GA-10) acting as referendums on former President Trump’s endorsement power. Two more, in Virginia, will determine challengers to incumbent Democrats in marginal Biden seats (VA-02 & […]

  Harrison Lavelle

  June 20, 2022

  House 2022, Primaries, Ratings