Viewing posts under:
Category: House 2022
-
Electability, Ideology, and the 2022 Midterms
At Split Ticket, we have repeatedly proven that candidate-driven effects fundamentally impact election results, but we have not completely addressed a more controversial question: do ideologically-extreme candidates pay electoral penalties? Previous analysis on the correlation between moderation and overperformance suggests that they do. Today’s piece hints at a more profound claim: electability was a bigger […]
-
Our 2022 House Wins Above Replacement (WAR) Model
>>> Jump to WAR Table Our 2020 House wins-above-replacement (WAR) model showed that spending still matters in American politics. Among other things, the new 2022 edition proves that candidate quality, or the lack thereof, can fundamentally impact competitive races. Controversial contenders paid a bigger penalty across the board this cycle than they did in 2020. […]
-
Against The Trend: California
Introduction To celebrate the holiday season, Split Ticket’s Against The Trend series is heading west to California. Rich both in geographic wonders and cultural diversity, the country’s most populated state dominates the 435-seat House of Representatives. Though the Golden State recently lost a seat in decennial reapportionment, its 52-member Congressional delegation comfortably remains the largest […]
-
Estimating 2022’s Generic Ballot
INTRODUCTION At the beginning of the 2022 cycle, one political truism benefited Republicans above all else: the out party had gained ground in all but three midterms since 1862. During that time frame, the House of Representatives had changed hands in 13 such cycles, with the presidential party often suffering double-digit losses. The GOP did […]
-
Against The Trend: New England
Introduction Welcome to the third edition of Against The Trend, a new series devoted to regional analyses of the 2022 House election results. After covering New York and Texas, today’s publication examines how Split Ticket’s ratings held up in New England — one of the country’s crossover voting havens. There’s also plenty of analytical content […]
-
2022’s Crossover Seats: An Analysis
Introduction Author’s Note: Results current as of this writing. Last January, Split Ticket published an analytical piece examining ticket-splitting in the 2020 House elections. The write-up primarily addressed “crossover seats,” or districts that supported different parties for President and Congress. Between 2008 and 2020, the number of those seats declined from 83 to just 16 […]
-
Against The Trend: New York
Introduction Welcome to the second edition of Against The Trend, Split Ticket’s new regional electoral analysis series. Today’s publication will examine the 2022 House election results in New York through the lens of the Empire State’s gubernatorial race. Just like in South Texas, which we covered in our previous installment, the data used for this […]
-
House Post-Mortem #2: Another Look
INTRODUCTION The previous Split Ticket House Post-Mortem addressed a question unheard of for the entire election cycle: could Democrats hold the House? For most of the year, even after the Dobbs decision, the answer would have been a resounding no. Going into November, partisan polling and historical precedent had biased the forecasting world’s view of […]
-
Against The Trend: South Texas
INTRODUCTION With the strenuous 2022 House campaign over at last, it’s time to dive into the electoral analysis phase. Our first new article series, Against The Trend, will regionally address three defining characteristics of the recent House elections: candidate quality still matters, crossover voting can be decisive, and trends don’t always carry over consistently between […]