Category: House 2022
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5/17 Primary Watchlist: House
Introduction As primary season continues to heat up, more and more states come onto the political radar. There are 45 House primaries this week alone. And while a mere handful of those matchups are actually competitive enough to cover, the sheer number of contests merits a single article devoted solely to the nation’s lower chamber. […]
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The 5/3 Primary Watchlist: Ohio and Indiana
Introduction For this week’s edition of Watchlist, we return from a two-month primary dry spell and turn our attention to two Rust Belt states whose primaries will resume the 2022 primary election season. Indiana and Ohio voters will head to the polls on May 3rd to nominate their slates of candidates for November. Unlike Texas, […]
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CA-26, VA-10 & An Expanding GOP Battleground
Introduction History tells us that the President’s party almost always loses ground in midterm cycles. The size of congressional losses varies depending on just how unpopular a sitting President is, but gains for the party out of power generally increase as presidential approval falls. Abrupt changes in political direction associated with midterms have an outsized […]
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Quantifying Conservatism
When Brian Kemp launched his 2018 campaign for governor, his first ad caught everyone’s eye. With promises to “blow up” government spending, a massive truck that he claimed would be used to “round up criminal illegals and take ’em home”, and a gun pointed at his daughter’s boyfriend that “no one [was] taking away”, Kemp’s […]