Category: House 2022

• Against The Trend: New York

  

  November 25, 2022

  Introduction Welcome to the second edition of Against The Trend, Split Ticket’s new regional electoral analysis series. Today’s publication will examine the 2022 House election results in New York through the lens of the Empire State’s gubernatorial race. Just like in South Texas, which we covered in our previous installment,… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• House Post-Mortem #2: Another Look

  November 21, 2022

  INTRODUCTION The previous Split Ticket House Post-Mortem addressed a question unheard of for the entire election cycle: could Democrats hold the House? For most of the year, even after the Dobbs decision, the answer would have been a resounding no. Going into November, partisan polling and historical precedent had biased… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• Against The Trend: South Texas

  November 16, 2022

  INTRODUCTION With the strenuous 2022 House campaign over at last, it’s time to dive into the electoral analysis phase. Our first new article series, Against The Trend, will regionally address three defining characteristics of the recent House elections: candidate quality still matters, crossover voting can be decisive, and trends don’t… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• An Early Post-Mortem: Can Democrats Hold The House?

  November 11, 2022

  INTRODUCTION For the entire 2022 cycle, mainstream pundits expected Republicans to comfortably flip the House of Representatives. Looking back, it’s hard to blame them for their optimism. The GOP had already enjoyed surprisingly-good House performance in 2020, netting 14 districts and reaching 213 seats – just 5 short of a… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• A Final Note

  November 8, 2022

  With the 2022 election cycle coming to a close, we’ve made our final picks for Senate, House, and Governor. In line with historical midterm precedent, the predictions suggest that tonight’s results will benefit Republicans — though not overwhelmingly, as we’ll discuss later on. Our forecast shows the GOP winning 50… Read More

  Lakshya Jain and Harrison Lavelle

• Our Final House Ratings

  November 6, 2022

  Introduction Split Ticket is predicting a 234 to 201 Republican House majority. That would put the GOP in similar position to the one Democrats held after the 2018 midterms. Today’s update makes 7 minor adjustments, eliminates all 17 TOSSUPS, and moves one race from LEANS DEMOCRATIC to LEANS REPUBLICAN.  Our… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• A Look At Two House “Sleepers”

  November 4, 2022

  INTRODUCTION On Monday, Split Ticket released its second to last House ratings update showing Republicans favored to take back the majority in the chamber. Our current forecast gives the GOP 223 seats to the Democrats 195, with 17 Tossups yet to be eliminated. A winner will be picked in each… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• House Temperature Check: One Week Out

  October 31, 2022

  A Look At The Generic Ballot With one week to go until election day, Split Ticket is excited to release its second to last House Temperature Check. The previous edition expanded and rearranged the total number of competitive seats in preparation for the gradual elimination of our Tossups, a process… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• District Rundown: New Mexico’s 2nd

  October 29, 2022

  BACKGROUND Welcome to the eighth edition of District Rundown, coming just a week and a half before election day. Last week’s publication touched on Indiana’s 1st district, an excellent late-breaking GOP pick-up opportunity currently rated TOSSUP for Split Ticket. Today’s analysis heads westward to one of the sunbelt’s most competitive… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle