Category: House 2022
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CA-26, VA-10 & An Expanding GOP Battleground
Introduction History tells us that the President’s party almost always loses ground in midterm cycles. The size of congressional losses varies depending on just how unpopular a sitting President is, but gains for the party out of power generally increase as presidential approval falls. Abrupt changes in political direction associated with midterms have an outsized […]
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Quantifying Conservatism
When Brian Kemp launched his 2018 campaign for governor, his first ad caught everyone’s eye. With promises to “blow up” government spending, a massive truck that he claimed would be used to “round up criminal illegals and take ’em home”, and a gun pointed at his daughter’s boyfriend that “no one [was] taking away”, Kemp’s […]
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Double-Bunkings: Historical Lessons
Introduction Double-bunkings are among the most enjoyable contests that redistricting connoisseurs and political wonks get to cover. There are a three main factors that fuel the mysterious allure that is often associated with them. For one, double-bunkings are the only contests that pit two incumbents of the same party against each other. Sitting members are […]
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Our 2018 House Wins-Above-Replacement Model, and the 2022 Implications
In today’s era of hyperpolarization, the single most accurate predictor of a district’s congressional vote is the presidential lean of the seat. As we previously analyzed here at Split Ticket, 97% of a district’s 2020 congressional vote could be explained simply by its presidential lean that year. With this in mind, it is likely that […]
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Retirement Musings: Part 2
Introduction Last year, one of Split Ticket’s first articles focused on House retirements. Since then, numerous incumbents (though mostly Democrats) have hopped on the departure train heading out of Washington. With filing deadlines fast approaching across the country, most candidates have already declared their intentions. This follow-up article will take a brief look at the […]
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The Texas Primary Watchlist
Introduction Welcome to the first edition of Watchlist, Split Ticket’s new electoral rundown series. With political junkies everywhere preparing for the beginning of election season, all eyes are focused on Texas. There, the inaugural primaries of the 2022 cycle will be held tomorrow. Each of the most competitive statewide and congressional nomination fights will be […]