Category: House 2022

• District Rundown: New Mexico’s 2nd

  October 29, 2022

  BACKGROUND Welcome to the eighth edition of District Rundown, coming just a week and a half before election day. Last week’s publication touched on Indiana’s 1st district, an excellent late-breaking GOP pick-up opportunity currently rated TOSSUP for Split Ticket. Today’s analysis heads westward to one of the sunbelt’s most competitive… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• House Temperature Check: Two Weeks Out

  October 26, 2022

  Introduction With the election less than two weeks away, Split Ticket is releasing the first of three House updates meant to prepare our board of competitive seats for the eventual elimination of Tossups and to identify seats that *could* be competitive in November. Before delving into the details, readers should… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• District Rundown: Indiana’s 1st

  October 22, 2022

  BACKGROUND Welcome to the seventh edition of District Rundown, Split Ticket’s biweekly House analysis series. The last publication focused on Colorado’s 8th district, a marginal Biden seat that Republicans are now favored to flip. Today’s release brings us to the heart of the Rust Belt to look at another high-stakes… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• District Rundown: Colorado’s 8th

  October 19, 2022

  BACKGROUND & AUTHOR’S NOTE Welcome back to the sixth edition of District Rundown, coming just under three weeks before election day. Our last publication covered the TOSSUP race in Rhode Island’s 2nd district, one of the nation’s few late-breaking House contests. By popular demand, this week’s installment is moving west… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• District Rundown: Rhode Island’s 2nd

  October 15, 2022

  BACKGROUND Welcome back to District Rundown, a biweekly series analyzing some of the nation’s top House races. This edition, coming just three weeks before election day, covers the race in Rhode Island’s 2nd district, which has recently moved to center stage. Split Ticket moved the seat from LEANS DEMOCRATIC back… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• District Rundown: New Jersey’s 7th

  October 12, 2022

  BACKGROUND Election day is less than 30 days away and Split Ticket has already published its second-to-last House Temperature Check. With the November picture becoming clearer each day, time is running out to cover some of the nation’s most competitive districts individually. The last edition of District Rundown analyzed why… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• October House Temperature Check

  October 9, 2022

  INTRODUCTION When Split Ticket released its last House Temperature Check at the end of August, 45 ratings changes were made in the Democrats’ favor. The shifts followed Pat Ryan’s victory over Republican frontrunner Marc Molinaro in New York’s 19th district, a culmination of Democratic overperformances in previous post-Dobbs special elections.… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• District Rundown: Ohio’s 9th

  September 25, 2022

  BACKGROUND In August, Split Ticket launched a new general election preview series called District Rundown. The first edition covered the pivotal special election in New York’s 19th district, which ultimately helped to shift national expectations regarding the national environment in a Democratic direction. Because the November elections are only 44… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• 9/13 Primary Recap

  September 15, 2022

  SENATE In the GOP Senate primary, Trump-backed retired Army brigadier general Don Bolduc eked out a victory over Chuck Morse by a mere percentage point. The tight margin came as a surprise to most observers, with pre-election polls suggesting a double-digit deficit for the state senate president. Bolduc will now… Read More

  Lakshya Jain and Harrison Lavelle