Category: House 2022

• 8/9 Primary Recap

  August 11, 2022

  Governor In Wisconsin, Trump-backed businessman Tim Michels won the GOP gubernatorial against former Lt. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch 47-42%. Timothy Ramthun finished third with just 6% of the vote. Going into this election, Split Ticket respectably issued an ultimately-incorrect LEANS KLEEFISCH rating. But why? Before any ballots were counted in Tuesday,… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle and Lakshya Jain

• 8/9 Primary Watchlist

  August 9, 2022

  Senate VERMONT – 7:00 EDT Former US Attorney Christina Nolan, a moderate, will likely win the Republican nomination. She will go up against Democratic congressman Peter Welch in the race to succeed the retiring Democratic senator Patrick Leahy. We rate this race as SAFE DEMOCRATIC. CONNECTICUT – 8:00 EDTIn Connecticut,… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle, Lakshya Jain and Leon Sit

• House Primary Recap: 8/2

  August 3, 2022

  *All numbers current as of publication per New York Times* Arizona AZ-01 Likely Schweikert (Predicted Correctly) In Arizona’s 1st district, incumbent Republican David Schweikert won renomination with 43% of the vote. His nearest opponent, businessman Elijah Norton, took 33%. Given the incumbent’s relatively-low share of the vote, it is probable… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• 8/2 House Primary Watchlist

  August 2, 2022

  Introduction For the first time since June, Split Ticket will be providing full coverage of a nationwide primary date. This week’s races will occur across five states: Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington. Most of the attention thus far has been directed at competitive Republican primaries for Senate and Governor,… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• Maryland House Primary + House Ratings Changes

  July 19, 2022

  Maryland House Much like New York’s, Maryland’s initial redistricting proposal was struck down by the courts before it could have electoral effect. No one is happier about the ruling than 1st district Republican Andy Harris. His current Trump +20 seat is based around the Eastern Shore and exurbs of Baltimore… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• Vulnerable Incumbents: Primary Edition

  July 7, 2022

  Introduction It is rare for sitting members of the House to lose renomination because they tend to have advantages in terms of fundraising and name recognition. Outsider victories have traditionally been possible only under unique circumstances involving scandal, intra-party ideological chafing, or concentrated electoral weakness. Given the above points, it… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• NE-01: Implications, or not?

  June 30, 2022

  Background Both the new and old versions of Nebraska’s 1st district are reliably-Republican seats on paper, which is why Tuesday’s surprisingly-competitive special election barely received attention over the last few months. There is certainly no reason to blame the election world for missing this race, because no one’s fundamentals suggested… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• 6/28 Primary Recap – The Last Super Tuesday

  June 29, 2022

  Primary Recap – Important Developments *A specific piece focusing solely on the implications of the special election in Nebraska’s 1st will be published tomorrow* Colorado The Colorado GOP had an excellent night in statewide primaries on Tuesday. Extreme candidates Ron Hanks, Greg Lopez, and Tina Peters all lost to mainstream… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• 6/28 House Watchlist

  June 28, 2022

  Colorado For more detailed analysis by Colorado expert Armin Thomas and Lakshya Jain, check out the Centennial State preview here. The 3rd district takes in much of western and south-central Colorado. It is composed of a diverse set of political constituencies: conservative bastions like Grand Junction, liberal extensions of ‘Ski… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle