Viewing posts under:
Category: General Analysis
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Election Review: Ohio
Introduction With 2022 in the rearview mirror, we at Split Ticket decided to start a new series called Election Review devoted to analyzing significant House races on a state by state basis. In addition to our previous Against The Trend publications, which focused on crossover voting driven by down-ballot lag, Election Review will utilize our […]
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Looking Back at Utah’s 2022 Senate Race
One of the most surprising results of the 2022 midterms was the relatively close Utah Senate race. The ruby-red state posted a 10.4-point win for incumbent GOP Sen. Mike Lee over conservative independent Evan McMullin — a remarkable underperformance by Lee. By comparison, the comparatively more competitive state of Florida voted for Sen. Marco Rubio, […]
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Our 2022 Senate Wins Above Replacement Model
During the course of our 2022 postmortems, we at Split Ticket have already quantified the importance of candidate quality in the House of Representatives elections. Today, we extend our model to the 2022 US Senate elections, where the disparities in candidate strength were even more striking. The story of how the Democrats kept the Senate […]
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Electability, Ideology, and the 2022 Midterms
At Split Ticket, we have repeatedly proven that candidate-driven effects fundamentally impact election results, but we have not completely addressed a more controversial question: do ideologically-extreme candidates pay electoral penalties? Previous analysis on the correlation between moderation and overperformance suggests that they do. Today’s piece hints at a more profound claim: electability was a bigger […]
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Introducing Split Ticket’s Congressional Voting Index (CVI)
INTRODUCTION Split Ticket’s new Congressional Voting Index (CVI) gauges each House district’s partisan lean. In contrast to counterparts like Cook PVI, our CVI uses a unique methodology that makes it more representative of the current electoral climate. This tool will improve our 2024 House ratings by shedding light on how seats may be expected to […]
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Cutting Through Chaos: Electing the Next Speaker of the House
INTRODUCTION Yesterday, the 118th Congress convened in Washington D.C. to conduct inaugural proceedings. Many of the 434 members-elect of the House of Representatives* expected normal starts to their new terms. They would first elect a speaker, then agree to rules and receive codified committee assignments. But, as last-minute squabbling over House Republicans’ de facto speaker […]
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Our 2022 House Wins Above Replacement (WAR) Model
>>> Jump to WAR Table Our 2020 House wins-above-replacement (WAR) model showed that spending still matters in American politics. Among other things, the new 2022 edition proves that candidate quality, or the lack thereof, can fundamentally impact competitive races. Controversial contenders paid a bigger penalty across the board this cycle than they did in 2020. […]
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Do Campaign Teams Matter? Republicans’ 2022 Enthusiasm Gap in Staffing Numbers
Senate Republicans didn’t crack the number they needed to achieve a majority and are still grappling with why. Sure, the post-election conventional wisdom has yielded a narrow spectrum of responses – anywhere from “bad candidate recruitment” to “blame Trump.” But how can we account for the outcomes in these races? One key element: Grassroots support […]
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Election Denial Is Really Unpopular
The 2020 election was unique for a variety of reasons. Chief among them, however, was the false contention from the (losing) Republican camp that they had actually won. In the wake of the election, former president Donald Trump propagated a wave of lies regarding the results and refused to back down on them, making them […]