Category: General Analysis
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District Rundown: Ohio’s 9th
BACKGROUND In August, Split Ticket launched a new general election preview series called District Rundown. The first edition covered the pivotal special election in New York’s 19th district, which ultimately helped to shift national expectations regarding the national environment in a Democratic direction. Because the November elections are only 44 days away, pieces focusing on […]
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Is The Right Rising In Europe? An Analysis
Introduction Newton’s third law of motion, which states that every action has an equal and opposite reaction, applies to both physics and international politics. The connection might not be clear at first, since “opposite reactions” in the electoral sense often take time to manifest, but it is fundamental to understanding the wider world. Abroad, just […]
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A Detailed Look Back At The 2004 Presidential Election
In July, Split Ticket started a new historical analysis series designed to explain how certain past presidential elections ushered in, or contributed to, realignments of geographic and demographic natures. Our first article touched on the 2000 Presidential Election, a contest now regarded as one of the most consequential, and controversial, in American history. Broadly, Split […]
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New Jersey’s 2025 Gubernatorial Race: An Early Look
INTRODUCTION In 2021, former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli rallied Republicans across the state of New Jersey to make the race against sitting Governor Phil Murphy surprisingly-close, losing 51-48%. Going into November, statewide polling had largely missed the palpable GOP enthusiasm that had developed as a result of both a strongly-Republican national environment and President Biden’s sinking […]
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The Reach of The Old Coalitions
One of the fundamental truths of American politics states that out-parties tend to gain seats in midterm elections. Historical causes include voter anger, changing electoral compositions, and economic concerns. This midterm axiom has been remarkably steady over the decades, with 1998 and 2002 constituting the only recent divergences. Historical data also suggest that wave midterms, […]
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Changing Times: The 1988 Presidential Election
INTRODUCTION The 1988 presidential election is underdiscussed by historians and political analysts alike, often creating a façade of mundane normalcy that misleads observers into thinking that the race itself was boring or unimportant. Reality could not be further from the truth. This piece will shed light on some of the more fascinating aspects of the […]
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The Gender Gap in American Politics
Virtually every partisan divergence in the modern American political era has been analyzed under the microscope, especially since the election of Donald Trump. This is especially true when evaluating divergences along racial, regional, and education-based lines. Perhaps one of the more under-analyzed splits has been the difference in voting patterns between men and women; an […]
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Temperature Check: US Senate
In this election cycle, the broad consensus after Democratic defeats in November 2021 was that the Republicans were poised to cruise to majorities in both the Senate and the House, with the acceleration of educational polarization combining with an unfavorable national environment to begin a possible multi-cycle Republican majority. However, ever since the extremely unpopular […]
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PA Realignment
Introduction Split Ticket recently started a new series studying realignments in specific states. Our first article, touching on New Jersey, determined that traditional down ballot partisan leans continue to weather opposing national trends, albeit to a lesser degree than in years past. This fundamental conclusion regarding “down ballot lag” is more or less applicable to […]