Category: General Analysis
-
Do Campaign Teams Matter? Republicans’ 2022 Enthusiasm Gap in Staffing Numbers
Senate Republicans didn’t crack the number they needed to achieve a majority and are still grappling with why. Sure, the post-election conventional wisdom has yielded a narrow spectrum of responses – anywhere from “bad candidate recruitment” to “blame Trump.” But how can we account for the outcomes in these races?… Read More
-
Election Denial Is Really Unpopular
The 2020 election was unique for a variety of reasons. Chief among them, however, was the false contention from the (losing) Republican camp that they had actually won. In the wake of the election, former president Donald Trump propagated a wave of lies regarding the results and refused to back… Read More
-
The True Swing from 2020 to 2022
Introduction Understanding the extent to which the national environment changes from election to election is a critical component of post-election analysis. While changes between presidential elections can easily be understood and quantified because of the nearly-uniform election systems in each of the 50 states, the swing from a presidential election… Read More
-
Estimating 2022’s Generic Ballot
INTRODUCTION At the beginning of the 2022 cycle, one political truism benefited Republicans above all else: the out party had gained ground in all but three midterms since 1862. During that time frame, the House of Representatives had changed hands in 13 such cycles, with the presidential party often suffering… Read More
-
Against The Trend: New England
Introduction Welcome to the third edition of Against The Trend, a new series devoted to regional analyses of the 2022 House election results. After covering New York and Texas, today’s publication examines how Split Ticket’s ratings held up in New England — one of the country’s crossover voting havens. There’s… Read More
-
2022’s Crossover Seats: An Analysis
Introduction Author’s Note: Results current as of this writing. Last January, Split Ticket published an analytical piece examining ticket-splitting in the 2020 House elections. The write-up primarily addressed “crossover seats,” or districts that supported different parties for President and Congress. Between 2008 and 2020, the number of those seats declined… Read More
-
Against The Trend: New York
Introduction Welcome to the second edition of Against The Trend, Split Ticket’s new regional electoral analysis series. Today’s publication will examine the 2022 House election results in New York through the lens of the Empire State’s gubernatorial race. Just like in South Texas, which we covered in our previous installment,… Read More
-
Struggling to Attract Single Women? So are Republicans
In the early hours of Wednesday morning, the narrative of the 2022 midterms had already cemented: Republicans’ celebration of a promised majority had turned to dejection and finger-pointing. There will be no shortage of post-hoc analysis for this “asterisk” election, but with more data available, there’s one voting block bucking… Read More