Category: General Analysis

• A Tale of 2 Committees: How outside money in AZ and OH is shaping the Senate races

  

  November 4, 2022

  This year, the spending in two Senate campaigns–Arizona and Ohio–represent a departure from the conventional architecture of statewide campaigns. Republican candidates in these races have all but abandoned traditional fundraising avenues for a deluge of outside funding dollars unleashed by the notorious Supreme Court ruling in Citizens United 12 years… Read More

  Clare Considine

• House Temperature Check: One Week Out

  October 31, 2022

  A Look At The Generic Ballot With one week to go until election day, Split Ticket is excited to release its second to last House Temperature Check. The previous edition expanded and rearranged the total number of competitive seats in preparation for the gradual elimination of our Tossups, a process… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• A Nonpartisan Generic Ballot Aggregator

  October 30, 2022

  It’s increasingly well accepted at this point that Democrats are on track to have a fairly bad year, at least in terms of the national popular vote. Their president’s approval rating is at 44%, the out-party shows serious enthusiasm, and inflation is at 8%. None of these things generally point… Read More

  Lakshya Jain

• District Rundown: New Mexico’s 2nd

  October 29, 2022

  BACKGROUND Welcome to the eighth edition of District Rundown, coming just a week and a half before election day. Last week’s publication touched on Indiana’s 1st district, an excellent late-breaking GOP pick-up opportunity currently rated TOSSUP for Split Ticket. Today’s analysis heads westward to one of the sunbelt’s most competitive… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• Does Evan McMullin Have A Chance?

  October 28, 2022

  For the first time in nearly 50 years, Utah has a chance of sending someone other than a Republican to the U.S. Senate. A traditionally conservative state, Utah routinely elects Republicans by margins in excess of 30 points. But incumbent Senator Mike Lee is weaker than the average Republican, and… Read More

  Armin Thomas, Jacob S. Rugh and Lakshya Jain

• House Temperature Check: Two Weeks Out

  October 26, 2022

  Introduction With the election less than two weeks away, Split Ticket is releasing the first of three House updates meant to prepare our board of competitive seats for the eventual elimination of Tossups and to identify seats that *could* be competitive in November. Before delving into the details, readers should… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• Empire State Shocker

  October 23, 2022

  Start spreadin’ the news. This race is in play. Zeldin has got a shot at it. New York, New York. Today, Split Ticket is moving the governor’s election in New York State from Safe Democratic to Likely Democratic. Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin is mounting a stronger-than-expected challenge. New York, a… Read More

  Armin Thomas

• District Rundown: Indiana’s 1st

  October 22, 2022

  BACKGROUND Welcome to the seventh edition of District Rundown, Split Ticket’s biweekly House analysis series. The last publication focused on Colorado’s 8th district, a marginal Biden seat that Republicans are now favored to flip. Today’s release brings us to the heart of the Rust Belt to look at another high-stakes… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• Republicans Gain In Polling As Elections Approach

  October 20, 2022

  One of the weird things about this cycle is that in many ways, it truly is not like any other. President Joe Biden is at 44% approval with registered and likely voters, and yet the generic ballot and special election results indicate a tight national environment. Former president Donald Trump… Read More

  Lakshya Jain