Category: General Analysis
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District Rundown: Colorado’s 8th
BACKGROUND & AUTHOR’S NOTE Welcome back to the sixth edition of District Rundown, coming just under three weeks before election day. Our last publication covered the TOSSUP race in Rhode Island’s 2nd district, one of the nation’s few late-breaking House contests. By popular demand, this week’s installment is moving west… Read More
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District Rundown: Rhode Island’s 2nd
BACKGROUND Welcome back to District Rundown, a biweekly series analyzing some of the nation’s top House races. This edition, coming just three weeks before election day, covers the race in Rhode Island’s 2nd district, which has recently moved to center stage. Split Ticket moved the seat from LEANS DEMOCRATIC back… Read More
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District Rundown: New Jersey’s 7th
BACKGROUND Election day is less than 30 days away and Split Ticket has already published its second-to-last House Temperature Check. With the November picture becoming clearer each day, time is running out to cover some of the nation’s most competitive districts individually. The last edition of District Rundown analyzed why… Read More
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MD-Gov: An Impossible Lift for Republicans
Of the four Republican gubernatorial pickups in the 2014 cycle, Maryland’s was arguably the biggest upset. Eight years later, the Republican party that once pulled off two-term Governor Larry Hogan’s victory is virtually unrecognizable. In such a firmly Democratic state, Gov. Hogan’s popularity has nearly hinged on his perception as… Read More
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Could Michigan Democrats Break a 40 Year Losing Streak?
For a state that has voted for the Democratic candidate in 7 out of the last 8 presidential elections, Michigan has been relatively hostile to Democrats at the state legislative level. Thanks to a combination of favorable maps, political climates, organizational strength, and geography, Republicans have controlled the State Senate… Read More
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World Report: Brazil Special
BACKGROUND The last edition of World Report focused on the state of right-wing populist parties in Europe, concluding that while some have recently gained ground, their odds of long-term growth are contingent on differences in culture, institutions, and socioeconomic situations between the various countries. Italy, for instance, has proven far… Read More
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October Gubernatorial Ratings Changes
Since our last Split Ticket gubernatorial ratings update, a lot has changed in the political landscape. Accordingly, we are making ratings changes to reflect the updated pictures in the national and statewide political environments as the election nears. Our current ratings are listed below. Democrats are favored to win 21… Read More
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Indiana Realignment
INTRODUCTION Back in July, Split Ticket started a new analysis series looking at realignments in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. To add some geographic diversity to the repertoire, this edition will move west to break down Indiana. The Hoosier State is an excellent case study for both the national trends of… Read More