Category: General Analysis
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District Rundown: Ohio’s 9th
BACKGROUND In August, Split Ticket launched a new general election preview series called District Rundown. The first edition covered the pivotal special election in New York’s 19th district, which ultimately helped to shift national expectations regarding the national environment in a Democratic direction. Because the November elections are only 44… Read More
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Is The Right Rising In Europe? An Analysis
Introduction Newton’s third law of motion, which states that every action has an equal and opposite reaction, applies to both physics and international politics. The connection might not be clear at first, since “opposite reactions” in the electoral sense often take time to manifest, but it is fundamental to understanding… Read More
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A Detailed Look Back At The 2004 Presidential Election
In July, Split Ticket started a new historical analysis series designed to explain how certain past presidential elections ushered in, or contributed to, realignments of geographic and demographic natures. Our first article touched on the 2000 Presidential Election, a contest now regarded as one of the most consequential, and controversial,… Read More
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New Jersey’s 2025 Gubernatorial Race: An Early Look
INTRODUCTION In 2021, former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli rallied Republicans across the state of New Jersey to make the race against sitting Governor Phil Murphy surprisingly-close, losing 51-48%. Going into November, statewide polling had largely missed the palpable GOP enthusiasm that had developed as a result of both a strongly-Republican national… Read More
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The Reach of The Old Coalitions
One of the fundamental truths of American politics states that out-parties tend to gain seats in midterm elections. Historical causes include voter anger, changing electoral compositions, and economic concerns. This midterm axiom has been remarkably steady over the decades, with 1998 and 2002 constituting the only recent divergences. Historical data… Read More
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Changing Times: The 1988 Presidential Election
INTRODUCTION The 1988 presidential election is underdiscussed by historians and political analysts alike, often creating a façade of mundane normalcy that misleads observers into thinking that the race itself was boring or unimportant. Reality could not be further from the truth. This piece will shed light on some of the… Read More
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The Gender Gap in American Politics
Virtually every partisan divergence in the modern American political era has been analyzed under the microscope, especially since the election of Donald Trump. This is especially true when evaluating divergences along racial, regional, and education-based lines. Perhaps one of the more under-analyzed splits has been the difference in voting patterns… Read More