Category: General Analysis
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Temperature Check: US Senate
In this election cycle, the broad consensus after Democratic defeats in November 2021 was that the Republicans were poised to cruise to majorities in both the Senate and the House, with the acceleration of educational polarization combining with an unfavorable national environment to begin a possible multi-cycle Republican majority. However,… Read More
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PA Realignment
Introduction Split Ticket recently started a new series studying realignments in specific states. Our first article, touching on New Jersey, determined that traditional down ballot partisan leans continue to weather opposing national trends, albeit to a lesser degree than in years past. This fundamental conclusion regarding “down ballot lag” is… Read More
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Is It Normal For Young Voters To Be This Democratic?
“To be conservative as a young person means that one has no heart, but to be liberal as an old person means that one has no brain”.The above quote is one of the oldest notions in politics, and it conveys the expectation that young voters, who consistently display the most… Read More
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A Detailed Look Back At The 2000 Presidential Election
Introduction The 2000 presidential election was one of the most significant in American history, from the heated campaign between George W. Bush and Al Gore to the Supreme Court’s controversial affirmation of the decisively-narrow Republican victory in Florida. At the time, Democrats were trying to hold onto the White House… Read More
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New Jersey’s Realignment
Introduction Like in most American states, the geographic voting patterns of the reliably-Democratic Garden State have changed significantly in just the last ten years. Ancestral leanings are still visible in downballot elections for Governor and the legislature, but the overarching trends have even begun to manifest themselves at the local… Read More
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Has The Supreme Court Ruling On Abortion Changed The Electoral Picture?
On June 24, the Supreme Court issued a ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson declaring that the right to an abortion was not constitutionally protected and could be blocked by states. The ruling, which was deeply unpopular across the nation, set off a firestorm of debate on both sides regarding legislation… Read More