Category: General Analysis
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Would Voter Turnout Be Enough To Flip Texas Blue?
For 30 years, Texas Democrats have eagerly forecasted an eventual Democratic takeover of Texas, pinning their hopes on rapidly growing minority populations that traditionally lean blue. However, following three decades of statewide losses, observers may be excused for being skeptical of a “Blexas” future — despite the state becoming majority-minority,… Read More
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Our 2024 Presidential Model
When we released our last presidential update, the consensus was that Donald Trump was favored to win. Since President Biden’s departure from the race, however, the electoral picture has changed considerably. Kamala Harris’ entrance into the race ushered in a boom in Democratic enthusiasm and revitalized the party’s fortunes in… Read More
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Temperature Check: Democratic House Outlook Improves
In our last set of House updates, we noted that Democrats had emerged as favorites to win the election. Since then, their odds have only gotten better. Our model now gives Democrats a 67% chance of winning the majority, which is the highest it has been since its inception. Our… Read More
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Temperature Check: Republicans Remain Favored To Flip Senate
Earlier this year, we introduced our quantitative Senate model. At that time, Republicans were projected to take an outright majority in the chamber with 51 seats; Democrats had the advantage in 48 states, with Ohio filling out the tossup category. Since then, the topline has remained the same — although… Read More
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Our 2024 Polling Aggregators (And How They Work)
With the election cycle in full swing and the electoral picture stabilizing, it can be easy to overreact to noise in individual polls and develop narratives around them. That’s why today at Split Ticket, we’re releasing our polling aggregates for 2024. Our hope is that you can use them to… Read More
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We Polled Nebraska (And Its Second District). Here’s What We Found.
It’s not often that much electoral attention finds its way to the Republican-dominated Great Plains, as the region only has a few remotely-competitive districts on the federal level. This year, however, Nebraska features three potentially-competitive races: the single electoral vote controlled by the state’s second congressional district (NE-02), the concurrent… Read More
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Why Latino Voters Surged for Bernie and Trump
In the 2020 presidential election, one of the largest political shifts occurred in Latino communities. While Democrats still won Latino communities by-and-large, more Latinos from Florida to California voted for Trump in 2020 than in 2016. Perhaps the most eye-grabbing rightward shift came from the Texan border with Mexico, especially… Read More
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Our Initial 2024 Governor Ratings
Just eleven states hold gubernatorial elections in presidential years, and all but two are in safe states. In many cases, that means most of the drama unfolded — or will unfold — in the primaries, which are often tantamount to election. The remaining two in New Hampshire and North Carolina,… Read More
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Our Senate Model: GOP-Friendly Map Dulls Candidate Quality Disasters
When we handicapped our initial Senate ratings, we noted that this cycle might finally be the year that the Class 1 Senate map (which held contests back in 2018, 2012, 2006, and so forth) turns on Democrats. Buoyed by uncharacteristic success in red-leaning states, and aided by a plethora of… Read More