Category: General Analysis
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Running Scared: How A Safe Seat Campaign Saved A Democratic Machine
In 2022, the second red tsunami in two years crashed onto the South Jersey shores. In the region’s light-red congressional district, Rep. Van Drew (R, NJ-02) was reelected by a whopping 19% margin. And in county after county, the once-vaunted South Jersey Democratic machine was absolutely obliterated, losing every major… Read More
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New Jersey Temperature Check: 10/21
Last week, we adjusted our legislative ratings in Virginia to reflect the current political environment. With the latest fundraising reports available, we’re now doing the same for New Jersey’s State Senate and Assembly. While a lot has changed since our first update in February, Democrats ultimately remain comfortable favorites to… Read More
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Virginia Temperature Check: 10/12
Today we’re updating our legislative forecast in Virginia for the first time since February. The ratings changes reflect the assumption that the political environment is at least more Democratic than it was last year. Our recent special elections analysis goes into the subject in more detail. In short, we’re expecting… Read More
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Can Kyrsten Sinema Win in Arizona?
Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema’s transition from a relatively predictable moderate Democrat to a mercurial independent has shaken up the upcoming Senate election in her home state. Her party switch topped off her breaks with party orthodoxy on key agenda items, which has enraged rank-and-file Democrats in Arizona and led to… Read More
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Do Special Elections Mean Anything?
One of the biggest open questions is why recent Democratic special election performances continue to paint a completely different electoral picture than what current polling suggests. Polls continue to show an effectively tied race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, and Biden’s approval remains stuck in the low 40s. On… Read More
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House Temperature Check: 9/18
Six months have passed since we released our 2024 House ratings, following the lackluster showing by Republicans in the 2022 midterm elections. Since then, the national environment seems to have improved for Democrats and critical mid-decade redistricting is on the horizon in a number of important states. In light of… Read More
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The Near-Miss House Districts Of 2022
The narrow outcome of the 2022 election makes a thought-provoking exercise out of looking at near-miss districts, where candidates suffered a loss partially attributable to a lack of financial support. To qualify for our list, a candidate must have lost by less than 3 points, had a positive WAR score,… Read More
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Special Election Primary Preview: RI-01 & UT-02
Today, competitive Democratic and Republican primaries are taking place in Rhode Island’s 1st and Utah’s 2nd congressional districts, respectively. These districts, which voted for their favored Presidential candidate by substantial margins in 2020, are not expected to host competitive general elections in November. Therefore, the winners of tonight’s primaries are… Read More
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Joe Manchin’s 2024 Re-Election: Difficult or Impossible?
Senator Joe Manchin is the last remaining Democrat elected statewide in West Virginia. After defying state partisanship to win reelection in 2018, pundits wonder whether he can pull off an even more impressive victory in 2024. Our Safe Republican rating reflects the fact that Manchin’s path to victory is currently… Read More