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Trump v. Anderson: Will Colorado Succeed in Keeping Trump Off the Ballot?
The Supreme Court is no stranger to high-stakes cases with significant electoral implications. Since the 1960s, justices have resolved disputes over redistricting, the Voting Rights Act, felon disenfranchisement, campaign finance regulations, and even congressional term limits. That list is by no means exhaustive, but it highlights the fine line between law and politics in voting Read more
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What Happened With Black Voters in Louisiana?
After the 2023 elections, Louisiana Republicans are arguably in their strongest position in history. The establishment of a firm supermajority eliminated the last vestiges of Democratic control from this formerly-blue “Solid South” state. As Democratic margins with southern white voters have steadily slipped cycle after cycle, margins with southern Black voters have usually held steady. Read more
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Our NY-03 Special Election Preview
Today, voters will head to the polls to vote for a congressional representative to fill the vacancy created by former Representative George Santos’ expulsion. Both Republicans and Democrats expect a close race, given the extent of their recent investments in the district. With control of the House as narrow as it stands, both parties have Read more
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Larry Hogan Faces An Impossible Challenge
Former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan has recently announced a surprise run for the Old Line State’s open Senate seat. Hogan, a Trump critic who towed a moderate line, left office in 2023 as one of his state’s most popular governors in recent memory. Remarkably, his approval rating among Democrats exceeded his numbers with Republicans by Read more
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For Once, Republicans Might Want A High Turnout Election
Entering 2020, it was nearly impossible to find a national poll that had Joe Biden trailing Donald Trump. Polling averages all showed every Democratic candidate leading the then-incumbent Republican president by several points, with the question being the size of the margin. Commentary discussed whether the Republicans even had a shot at holding the White Read more
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Do Democrats Have An Issue Advantage in Education?
Political battles over education are a tale as old as the government itself. From the creation of public schooling in the 1700s to clashes over book bans stretching into the modern era, education has been an ever-present force in American politics. It is also an issue that has long favored the Democratic Party, with polls Read more
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The Potential Political Impact of Shifting State Populations
In Part 1 of this article, we reviewed population changes since both the 2020 Census and the Dobbs decision. Although shifts in the distribution of population can be interesting, it directly relates to political power through reapportionment. With any national population estimate released by the Census Bureau, observers often turn ahead to 2030 to try Read more
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Democrats And The 2024 Senate Problem
Most coverage of the 2024 Senate elections frames the race for the majority as resting on a knife’s edge. The logic, on paper, is sound — after all, Republicans need to flip at least two seats to take full control at a time when an exceptionally weak nominee, with a history of elevating extremely problematic Read more
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Suburban Republican Success: A Case Study in New Jersey
Generally speaking, the Democrats were clear winners in November’s off-year elections. Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear comfortably secured reelection, Brandon Presley came closer to winning in Mississippi than any Democrat in a generation, and Republicans lost control of Virginia’s House of Delegates. Democrats had much to be proud of in New Jersey too. They netted six Read more
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How Have Populations Changed In Red and Blue States?
A week ago, state population totals from the Census Bureau’s annual population estimates were released, the first data covering population changes following the controversial Dobbs v. Jackson Supreme Court Decision. Before any conclusions are drawn, it is crucial to note the inherent margin of error found in all, and between all, population estimates. Any extrapolation, Read more
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Breaking Racial Polarization: A Case Study In The Deep South
The Upper Mississippi Delta region is home to some of the strongest and most intractable racial polarization anywhere in the country. Since the mass re-enfranchisement of black voters in the 1960s, white voters have overwhelmingly preferred Republicans while black voters have strongly backed Democrats. Long-term shifts driven by educational and national polarization have yet to Read more
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What Do Aggregated Crosstabs Tell Us About 2024?
Now more than ever, political observers seem to be digging into polls’ crosstabs, oftentimes reacting with incredulity at some of the results among certain demographic subgroups. Sometimes they’ll even point to these seemingly impossible subgroup margins (e.g., “There’s just no way Trump is leading Biden among white college graduates!”) as a reason to disregard the Read more
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