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America’s Changing Suburbs: the Key to 2024?
For Americans, the “suburbs” have traditionally evoked images of cookie-cutter houses on sprawling roads, housing families with parents commuting to 9-to-5 jobs in nearby cities. Suburbs are also synonymous with a certain kind of prosperity and political power — two things that were, for many years, mostly exclusive to white Americans. But a look at Read more
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The Largest Native American Voting Blocs
Native American voters are an under-discussed voting bloc in American elections, but by no means are they an insignificant one. Well-known Senate victories by candidates of both parties have been attributed to the Native vote — from Republican Lisa Murkowski’s 2010 write-in win in Alaska to Democrat Heidi Heitkamp’s 2012 upset in North Dakota. More Read more
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Introducing Our 2024 House Model
The 2024 House playing field has changed significantly since our previous official ratings update in September. In our last update, 210 seats favored Democrats and 203 favored Republicans, while the remaining 22 seats were tossups. In this iteration, however, both parties are favored in 211 seats, with 13 tossups. Our new model gives Republicans a Read more
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What’s In A Rating?
Last month, the Cook Political Report published an article with some eye-opening statistics: over their 38-year history, more than 95% of races they called as “leaning” toward a party went to said party. By contrast, over 97% of races they called as “likely” to go to a party resolved as such — a mere 2% Read more
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Crosstabs at a Crossroads: Six Months Out
Just under six months out from Election Day, national polling averages are showing Donald Trump leading Joe Biden by just over 1 percentage point. They also show that, despite narratives of “momentum” for either candidate, the race has been fairly stable for the better part of a year. But what’s happening under the surface? Which Read more
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Temperature Check: 2024 Presidential Election
With six months to go in the 2024 presidential election cycle and both nominees set, it’s worth re-examining the state of the race. Polls are now more relevant, given increasing proximity to the election. While the fundamentals of the race, which include the issue landscape, campaign cash levels, and candidate vulnerabilities, continue to favor Joe Read more
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The Pendulum Counties
Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election with a margin quite similar to that of the 2012 reelection of his predecessor Barack Obama — 4.5% and 3.9%, respectively. However, his coalition differed from Obama’s, having been the product of nearly a decade of electoral change. Many counties moved in one direction — for example, most Read more
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Chaos In The Crosstabs
Over the course of this election cycle, perhaps no single demographic has received more attention than young voters, which many polls now suggest to be increasingly Trump-curious. This has been observed alongside a similarly shocking swing toward Biden among elderly voters. If these surveys are correct, then our political landscape would be undergoing an incredible, Read more
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Temperature Check: Ohio Senate
Democrats won back the Senate in 2020 following historic victories in two hotly contested Georgia runoffs. Going into 2022, they had to hold Senate seats in three competitive Biden-won states to retain the majority (NV, AZ, and GA) — a difficult task for a party at the helm during a midterm. Despite President Biden’s unpopularity, Democrats Read more
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We Polled Young Voters. Here’s What We Found.
If you’ve followed any of the polling from this presidential election cycle, you’re probably aware of massive purported swings in the voting behavior of the youngest and oldest voters in the electorate portended by polling. Survey after survey shows Joe Biden gaining with seniors while cratering with young voters, whom many public polls have begun Read more
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Kari Lake Could Cost Republicans The Arizona Senate Seat
Earlier this week, Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema announced that she would not run for re-election, ending months of speculation about the possibility of a three-way contest. This development is a rare break of good news for Senate Democrats, for whom perfect conditions have not materialized: Joe Manchin is on track to be replaced by a Read more
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The Cannabis Consensus: Marijuana Referendums Bridge Political Divides
As 2024 begins, Americans in twenty-four states and D.C. find themselves in jurisdictions where recreational marijuana is legal. Public opinion nationwide is now decisively in favor of legalization, with support hovering around 70%. Politicians have largely abandoned it as a polarizing issue. This was not always the case; at the turn of the millennium, it Read more
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