Max McCall
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Turnout In The 2024 Election
Turnout may be the political world’s favorite buzzword. If you’ve ever heard a campaign say that “it’ll all come down to turnout,” you’ll know it has long since become a cliche. Whether they win or lose, candidates often credit (or curse) turnout. Case in point: the 2024 presidential race. Many… Read More
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Where Should Democrats Run Independents?
The Senate’s rural bias has put Democrats at a severe disadvantage in the chamber. This has been compounded by the rise of polarization, which cost Democrats the red states of Montana, West Virginia, and Ohio in 2024 — and what’s worse, there currently doesn’t seem to be a plausible path… Read More
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America’s Demographic Revolution
Last June, we did a deep dive into the 100 largest suburban counties to explore demographic and political change between 2000 and 2020. On the demographic front, we found that all of the suburban counties included in our analysis had become more diverse. This was consistent, but not homogeneous: Asian… Read More
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Our 2024 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) Models
Today, we’re releasing our 2024 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) candidate quality models, for both the House and the Senate. For those of you unfamiliar with the concept, here’s a brief primer: our models assemble a “fundamentals”-based outcome estimate for a race by controlling for seat partisanship, incumbency, demographics, and money… Read More
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How did Split Ticket’s Models Perform in 2024?
At Split Ticket, we try to let data drive all of our decisions and forecasts. That’s why we transitioned from holistic ratings, like those used at the Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report, to a fully and strictly quantitative model, like FiveThirtyEight’s approach, in 2024. As the cycle completes,… Read More
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2024 Showed The Value Of Polling
Going into election night, polling suggested a close race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, with surveys showing less than a half percentage point separating the two candidates in the tipping point state in Pennsylvania. The bulk of polling suggested that the race would come down to the wire, with… Read More
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Our Final Forecast
President At the presidential level, our model views this race as a tossup, with Kamala Harris as a nominal favorite (making her our pick for the presidency). We give her a 53% chance of winning, and project her to win 270 electoral votes — at the moment, the “Blue Wall”… Read More
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The Case For (And Against) A Kamala Harris Victory
With just three days to go until election day, our forecast remains that the presidency is a pure tossup, with Kamala Harris at a 53% chance to win and Donald Trump at a 47% chance to win. Harris is a nominal favorite, and so if you forced us to make… Read More
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Temperature Check (10/26): Model Wars (And Is Early Voting Predictive?)
As we enter the final stretch of the campaign, Democratic fretting about the election continues to ramp up. Multiple news articles have documented the “vibe shift,” noting that some within the party have already begun to point fingers at those they believe will be responsible for a Harris loss. These… Read More