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Why Latino Voters Surged for Bernie and Trump
In the 2020 presidential election, one of the largest political shifts occurred in Latino communities. While Democrats still won Latino communities by-and-large, more Latinos from Florida to California voted for Trump in 2020 than in 2016. Perhaps the most eye-grabbing rightward shift came from the Texan border with Mexico, especially in the rural counties near Read more
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Our Initial 2024 Governor Ratings
Just eleven states hold gubernatorial elections in presidential years, and all but two are in safe states. In many cases, that means most of the drama unfolded — or will unfold — in the primaries, which are often tantamount to election. The remaining two in New Hampshire and North Carolina, however, could see barnburner races Read more
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A Very Detailed Examination Of The Washington Primary
For people who want non-polling electoral signs, the Washington primary election has been perhaps the most closely watched signal in recent years. This August “jungle primary” pits Democrats and Republicans against each other on the same ballot, with the top two vote-getters advancing to November, regardless of party. The nature of the primary, both in Read more
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Our Senate Model: GOP-Friendly Map Dulls Candidate Quality Disasters
When we handicapped our initial Senate ratings, we noted that this cycle might finally be the year that the Class 1 Senate map (which held contests back in 2018, 2012, 2006, and so forth) turns on Democrats. Buoyed by uncharacteristic success in red-leaning states, and aided by a plethora of awful GOP candidates, Democrats managed Read more
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Democrats Claw Back Slim Edge In Race For House Control
When we introduced our House model in June, Republicans and Democrats were favored in 211 seats each with 13 districts counted as tossups. At the time, Republicans had a 56% chance of retaining the House majority. Since then, the picture has changed substantially, especially after Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race and replacement by Kamala Read more
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We Polled The Rust Belt. Here’s What We Found.
The national political climate has undergone a seismic shift since we polled the nation one month ago. On July 21st, the nation experienced a political earthquake when President Joe Biden, plagued by the fallout from his lackluster June debate performance, dropped out of the race, endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as his replacement. At that Read more
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What Powered That Startling Democratic Overperformance in Ohio? Turnout.
The last positive electoral news for Democrats before President Biden’s lackluster debate performance came from a special election in Ohio’s 6th district on June 11th, where Democrat Michael Kripchak exceeded expectations in a contest to replace Republican Rep. Bill Johnson. The seat, which backed former President Trump by nearly 30 points, voted for the Republican Read more
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We Polled Black Voters. Here’s What We Found.
Over the last several years, Black voters have been perhaps the most pivotal voting bloc fueling Joe Biden’s presidential aspirations. A core group of the Democratic Party, they comprise roughly 25% of its total voters, and it was Biden’s heavy margins with this group that powered him to the nomination in 2020, thanks to his Read more
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We Polled The Nation. Here’s What We Found.
President Joe Biden trails former President Donald Trump by one point in a survey conducted by Split Ticket and Data For Progress. The poll was conducted online between July 1–3, 2024 with a sample size of N=2,067 likely voters, and was weighted to be representative of age, gender, education, race, geography, and the recalled 2020 Read more
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The Case For (And Against) Joe Biden
Joe Biden’s abysmal showing in Thursday’s debate may well have been at the very top of the “worst case scenario” list for his campaign. It has sparked a firestorm of speculation regarding the viability of his candidacy and whether he should remain in the race, especially given his age and the broad concerns voters have Read more
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Bowman vs Latimer: A New York Blockbuster
Congressman Jamaal Bowman is facing a strong primary challenge from Westchester County Executive George Latimer in New York’s 16th District. Despite national intra-party dynamics, local complications broaden the race beyond a simple clash between progressive and moderate Democrats. Differing electoral priorities of communities in Lower Westchester and the Bronx are driving the contest’s coalitions and Read more
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The Conviction Bounce
The 2024 presidential cycle has been defined by two things. The first is its length; in previous cycles, the matchup only became clear in March or April, but this time around, the scene was arguably already set by the beginning of the year. That means that this has been the longest general election “season” in Read more
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