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Are GOP-Leaning Pollsters Biasing The Averages? (No.)
One question we keep getting is whether Republican-leaning polls are biasing our poll averages. The criticism goes as such: since the averages are only as good as the data that goes into it, a flood of polls from GOP-leaning pollsters would meaningfully bias the polling outlook rightward. This is what many call “flooding the zone”. Read more
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Temperature Check (10/26): Model Wars (And Is Early Voting Predictive?)
As we enter the final stretch of the campaign, Democratic fretting about the election continues to ramp up. Multiple news articles have documented the “vibe shift,” noting that some within the party have already begun to point fingers at those they believe will be responsible for a Harris loss. These fears are not entirely unfounded, Read more
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Temperature Check (10/19): The Signal And The Noise
Our forecast this week sees Kamala Harris’ odds tick down a notch, from 55% to 53%. Readers may note that this marks the fourth straight week of decline from her peak of 62% when the model launched, which happened fresh off a debate that Harris was widely seen as having won. This begs the question: Read more
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Temperature Check (10/12): What’s The Point Of A Model?
Today’s analysis of our model looks remarkably similar to last week’s, as well as the week preceding that one. Our presidential model gives Kamala Harris a 55% chance of winning the election. This is almost identical to the 57% chance our model gave her over the past two weeks. The root cause of this is Read more
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Temperature Check (10/05): The Potential Illusion Of Stability
In a cycle characterized recently by immense upheaval, stability is perhaps the last thing that would come to mind regarding the 2024 elections. Yet for perhaps the first time in months, that is exactly what would characterize our forecasts right now. Coalitions are largely set (in fact, FiveThirtyEight’s crosstab aggregates show hardly any movement over Read more
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Temperature Check (9/27): House, Senate, and Presidency
Between now and election day, we’ll be doing a series of weekly updates on the state of the race in the House, Senate, and Presidency. Our goal is to keep you informed on what our models say on a weekly basis about the evolving state of the race as the election nears. President At the Read more
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Would Voter Turnout Be Enough To Flip Texas Blue?
For 30 years, Texas Democrats have eagerly forecasted an eventual Democratic takeover of Texas, pinning their hopes on rapidly growing minority populations that traditionally lean blue. However, following three decades of statewide losses, observers may be excused for being skeptical of a “Blexas” future — despite the state becoming majority-minority, and despite it having shifted Read more
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Our 2024 Presidential Model
When we released our last presidential update, the consensus was that Donald Trump was favored to win. Since President Biden’s departure from the race, however, the electoral picture has changed considerably. Kamala Harris’ entrance into the race ushered in a boom in Democratic enthusiasm and revitalized the party’s fortunes in the presidential race. Until now, Read more
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Temperature Check: Democratic House Outlook Improves
In our last set of House updates, we noted that Democrats had emerged as favorites to win the election. Since then, their odds have only gotten better. Our model now gives Democrats a 67% chance of winning the majority, which is the highest it has been since its inception. Our current House ratings stand at Read more
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Temperature Check: Republicans Remain Favored To Flip Senate
Earlier this year, we introduced our quantitative Senate model. At that time, Republicans were projected to take an outright majority in the chamber with 51 seats; Democrats had the advantage in 48 states, with Ohio filling out the tossup category. Since then, the topline has remained the same — although Democratic odds have ticked up Read more
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Our 2024 Polling Aggregators (And How They Work)
With the election cycle in full swing and the electoral picture stabilizing, it can be easy to overreact to noise in individual polls and develop narratives around them. That’s why today at Split Ticket, we’re releasing our polling aggregates for 2024. Our hope is that you can use them to develop a better insight of Read more
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We Polled Nebraska (And Its Second District). Here’s What We Found.
It’s not often that much electoral attention finds its way to the Republican-dominated Great Plains, as the region only has a few remotely-competitive districts on the federal level. This year, however, Nebraska features three potentially-competitive races: the single electoral vote controlled by the state’s second congressional district (NE-02), the concurrent House race there, and even Read more
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