All Posts

  • How Much Does Early Presidential Polling Matter?

    How Much Does Early Presidential Polling Matter?

    Donald Trump’s “MAGA” movement is arguably more unpopular than ever before, with only 24% of the electorate (and 12% of independents) viewing it favorably. But if you looked at the 2024 presidential polls for a Biden-Trump rematch, you probably wouldn’t be able to figure that out. Virtually every polling aggregation shows an extremely tight race,… Read more

  • Does Trump’s Indictment Change Anything?

    Does Trump’s Indictment Change Anything?

    Last week, the Department of Justice indicted former President Donald Trump on 37 counts relating to his illegal retention of classified documents. Despite the possibility of conviction and his unpopularity among the general electorate, Trump remains the favorite to win the Republican nomination, and polls suggest that his latest scandal hasn’t impacted his standing with… Read more

  • New York City’s Changing Coalitions

    New York City’s Changing Coalitions

    New York City is the most diverse city in the world and its electoral coalitions follow these sectional lines. Because voters with similar identities often share political preferences, understanding demographic change helps explain the coalition changes in New York City across forty years: between the 1984 and 2020 presidential elections. The first significant groups of… Read more

  • Our Initial 2024 Presidential Ratings

    Our Initial 2024 Presidential Ratings

    With the Republican presidential primary field all but set and the election less than 18 months away, Split Ticket now debuts its initial 2024 presidential ratings. Historically, preference volatility has hindered projection-making from this point in time, over a year out from either party convention. However, with increased ideological entrenchment, it appears clear that a… Read more

  • The Electoral Impact of Election Denial

    The Electoral Impact of Election Denial

    With few exceptions, majorities in both parties have historically accepted presidential election results. But that changed in the 2020 Presidential election cycle, when President Trump claimed the election would be stolen amid ballot counting delays. His conspiracy theories reduced Republican confidence in American elections to historic lows and led 147 Congressional Republicans to vote to… Read more

  • Our Initial 2024 Senate Ratings

    Our Initial 2024 Senate Ratings

    The upcoming Senate map has been on “borrowed time” for Democrats for almost two decades, but a mix of exceptional candidate quality and excellent environments have kept them afloat for quite some time. In 2006, Democrats defeated six of the so-called “Class I” Republicans, flipping the Senate in a wave fueled by the unpopularity of… Read more

  • A Generational Cliff

    A Generational Cliff

    Split Ticket has devoted significant coverage to the partisanship of young voters. Whether through analyzing individual-level data in voter files or by aggregating and examining exit poll estimates from the last four decades, the story we find remains consistent: young voters are extremely Democratic, and more importantly, ahistorically so. This analysis can be extended to… Read more

  • How Successful are House Challengers in Competitive Rematches?

    How Successful are House Challengers in Competitive Rematches?

    Candidates who lose close House races are often motivated to run again. When they do, their high name recognition, strong fundraising connections, and tested campaign infrastructures tend to give them an advantage over primary opponents. Support from national party committees like the NRCC and DCCC can also be decisive in consolidating would-be crowded primary fields,… Read more

  • The Libertarian Effect

    The Libertarian Effect

    Because American politics is dominated by a two-party system composed of Democrats and Republicans, it’s hardly a surprise that observers tend to neglect Libertarian candidates. After all, minor-party contenders usually raise little money and win very few votes, causing them to have insignificant impacts on general election outcomes. Sometimes, however, Republicans do blame Libertarians for… Read more

  • Analyzing Republican Overperformance in Elections for State Treasurer and Controller

    Analyzing Republican Overperformance in Elections for State Treasurer and Controller

    National polling generally suggests that voters trust Republicans more than Democrats when it comes to handling fiscal policy. In the lead-up to the 2022 midterms, pre-election polling from ABC News showed the GOP enjoying a 12-point advantage on the economy, compared to a 12-point deficit on the issue of abortion. More recently, CNN released a… Read more

  • Modeling the Modern Era’s Congressional Environments

    Modeling the Modern Era’s Congressional Environments

    Last year, Split Ticket reviewed House-level election results for the 2020 and 2022 cycles and developed a metric to quantify what a “generic ballot” election result would have looked like. In such an election, every voter is presented with at least a Republican and a Democrat on the ballot at the House level. While it… Read more

  • Our Wisconsin Supreme Court Election Preview

    Our Wisconsin Supreme Court Election Preview

    On Tuesday, voters will head to the polls in Wisconsin to choose a new state Supreme Court justice between the Republican-aligned former Supreme Court justice Dan Kelly and the Democratic-aligned judge Janet Protasiewicz for a seat on the state’s Supreme Court. With control of the court on the line and issues such as redistricting, abortion… Read more