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The Near-Miss House Districts Of 2022
The narrow outcome of the 2022 election makes a thought-provoking exercise out of looking at near-miss districts, where candidates suffered a loss partially attributable to a lack of financial support. To qualify for our list, a candidate must have lost by less than 3 points, had a positive WAR score, and faced more outside money… Read more
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Special Election Primary Preview: RI-01 & UT-02
Today, competitive Democratic and Republican primaries are taking place in Rhode Island’s 1st and Utah’s 2nd congressional districts, respectively. These districts, which voted for their favored Presidential candidate by substantial margins in 2020, are not expected to host competitive general elections in November. Therefore, the winners of tonight’s primaries are almost certain to enter Congress… Read more
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Joe Manchin’s 2024 Re-Election: Difficult or Impossible?
Senator Joe Manchin is the last remaining Democrat elected statewide in West Virginia. After defying state partisanship to win reelection in 2018, pundits wonder whether he can pull off an even more impressive victory in 2024. Our Safe Republican rating reflects the fact that Manchin’s path to victory is currently too narrow to indicate a… Read more
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How the 2024 House Elections Could Decide the Presidency
Imagine that it’s November 6th, 2024 and Americans nationwide are waking up to very unsettling news: neither candidate has hit the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency, meaning the president must be chosen by the House of Representatives in a contingent election the following year. For most voters, it’s confusing and alarming procedural… Read more
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Evaluating Sherrod Brown’s Path to Reelection
Senator Sherrod Brown has comfortably won three senate races and currently is the only Democratic statewide elected official in Ohio. His most recent reelection performance was impressive for a Trump-era Democrat in an increasingly-Republican state, but our 2018 WAR model suggests that it wasn’t particularly extraordinary. Brown overperformed by just 1.2 points relative to expectations,… Read more
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Issue 1 and a Proxy War in Ohio
The post-Dobbs era has seen a wave of attempts from legislatures to codify a preferred position on abortion into law, depending on the partisanship of the state legislature. In many states, these attempts have taken the form of ballot measures and referendums, where citizens vote directly on these matters. In the case of Ohio, a… Read more
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Could Julia Letlow Win In A Majority-Black District?
The Supreme Court’s recent Milligan decision affirmed an order for Alabama to draw a second majority-Black district. It also breathed life into a prominent Louisiana redistricting case: Ardoin v. Robinson. Last year, a district judge ruled that the state’s gerrymandered congressional map violated the VRA and ordered the creation of a district Black enough to… Read more
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Temperature Check: 2023 Gubernatorial Races
With just over 100 days until Election Day 2023, the picture of each of the three contests is coming into focus. Narratives are solidifying and voters are tuning in to their local campaigns. The stage is set for a broadly uncompetitive race in Louisiana, a possibly competitive one in Mississippi, and a barn-burner in Kentucky.… Read more
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Presidential Elections And The Economy
Historically, voters have punished or rewarded presidents at the polls for their perceived handling of the nation’s economy — Jimmy Carter in 1980 and Ronald Reagan in 1984 are two excellent examples of this effect from both ends of the spectrum. While this sentiment has arguably been misplaced at times, given the limited, peripheral role… Read more
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America and the Affirmative Action Debate
Last month, the Supreme Court decided Students for Fair Admissions, Inc. v. President and Fellows of Harvard College, holding that race-based affirmative action programs in college admissions violate both Title VI of the Civil Rights Act and the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment. The decision, which also covered Harvard’s companion case Students for… Read more
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The DeSantis Decline
After former President Donald Trump led a hand-picked slate of candidates to defeat in 2022, many Republicans sought a fresh face to lead the conservative movement. For some members of the GOP establishment, the ideal candidate was Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. In him they saw a younger, sharper version of the former president, and someone… Read more
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The Milligan Decision: What Does It Mean for Alabama Redistricting?
On June 8th, the Supreme Court handed down a 5-4 decision in Allen v. Milligan, finding that Alabama’s current congressional map likely violates the Voting Rights Act of 1965. The decision paves the way for a second majority-black district in the state. More importantly, the Court held that the VRA does apply to redistricting and… Read more
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