Armin Thomas
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Modeling the Modern Era’s Congressional Environments
Last year, Split Ticket reviewed House-level election results for the 2020 and 2022 cycles and developed a metric to quantify what a “generic ballot” election result would have looked like. In such an election, every voter is presented with at least a Republican and a Democrat on the ballot at… Read More
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Our Wisconsin Supreme Court Election Preview
On Tuesday, voters will head to the polls in Wisconsin to choose a new state Supreme Court justice between the Republican-aligned former Supreme Court justice Dan Kelly and the Democratic-aligned judge Janet Protasiewicz for a seat on the state’s Supreme Court. With control of the court on the line and… Read More
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Examining Ross Perot’s Impact on the 1992 Presidential Election Results
Many political scientists now recognize that Ross Perot’s independent candidacy did not spoil the 1992 presidential election for Republican President George H.W. Bush, yet few comprehensive quantitative analyses exist to prove such conventional wisdom correct. While exit polls are by no means perfect measures of electoral preferences, they are often… Read More
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Where Do Democrats Win White Voters?
For decades, column after column has been written on how diverse America has become. From John Judis and Ruy Teixeira’s 2002 book, The Emerging Democratic Majority, to the 2020 election postmortems, analysts have devoted hundreds of thousands of words to the diversification of the American electorate. These statements are not… Read More
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Examining California’s “Blueshift”
Many observers falsely assume that California’s electorate gets uniformly bluer between primary and general elections, giving Democratic candidates an edge in competitive races at the congressional and legislative levels. Reality is more complicated than any statewide average admits. Shifts don’t just vary based on political environments; they’re also affected by… Read More
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Montana’s Reservations Lean Blue. They Could Get Bluer.
Control of the United States Senate may hinge on Montana, where Democratic Senator Jon Tester is set to face what could be his toughest re-election bid. National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Steve Daines, a fellow Montanan, is taking the effort to unseat Tester seriously. As Montana voted for Trump by… Read More
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Eastern Ohio’s 6th District May Decide the Future of Buckeye State Democrats Statewide
The current wave of political realignment hitting the nation is breaking hard in Ohio. The exodus of working-class white voters from the Democratic Party has been most pronounced in the Buckeye State. Once a highly-competitive bellwether state, Ohio is now firmly red. Longtime hotbeds of blue strength in eastern Ohio… Read More
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How Has The US Senate Managed To Stay Competitive?
The 2024 Senate map is conventionally challenging for Democrats. Republicans need just two seats to flip the chamber, while Democrats must defend 23. Eight of the states that they are defending were more Republican than the nation in 2020 and three (Montana, West Virginia, and Ohio) backed President Trump twice… Read More
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Which Key Race Outcomes Might Libertarians Have Changed?
Introduction Much important American electoral discourse revolves around spoiler candidates. In other words, minor contenders (typically representing third parties) who win just enough votes to be accused of preventing major-party candidates from securing majorities in tight races. The use of first-past-the-post voting in most U.S. states makes it easier for… Read More