Leon Sit
-
What Was the 2024 Congressional Popular Vote?
Political observers can readily recall the 2024 election outcome, with Trump’s sweep of the swing states being paired with Republicans trailing elsewhere downballot. Despite an arguably-favorable mid-decade redistricting cycle, Republicans lost two seats in November, which halved their House majority. The final tally showed that Kamala Harris stood 1.7% away… Read More
-
Our 2024 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) Models
Today, we’re releasing our 2024 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) candidate quality models, for both the House and the Senate. For those of you unfamiliar with the concept, here’s a brief primer: our models assemble a “fundamentals”-based outcome estimate for a race by controlling for seat partisanship, incumbency, demographics, and money… Read More
-
How did Split Ticket’s Models Perform in 2024?
At Split Ticket, we try to let data drive all of our decisions and forecasts. That’s why we transitioned from holistic ratings, like those used at the Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report, to a fully and strictly quantitative model, like FiveThirtyEight’s approach, in 2024. As the cycle completes,… Read More
-
Our Final Forecast
President At the presidential level, our model views this race as a tossup, with Kamala Harris as a nominal favorite (making her our pick for the presidency). We give her a 53% chance of winning, and project her to win 270 electoral votes — at the moment, the “Blue Wall”… Read More
-
Understanding the 2024 Early Vote
In the run-up to the 2020 Presidential Election, Donald Trump repeatedly questioned the security of early voting (particularly mail-in voting) and encouraged Republicans to vote in-person or on election day. His base, distrustful of state boards of election and concerned about interference, largely followed suit. At the same time, Democrats… Read More
-
Temperature Check (10/05): The Potential Illusion Of Stability
In a cycle characterized recently by immense upheaval, stability is perhaps the last thing that would come to mind regarding the 2024 elections. Yet for perhaps the first time in months, that is exactly what would characterize our forecasts right now. Coalitions are largely set (in fact, FiveThirtyEight’s crosstab aggregates… Read More
-
Our 2024 Presidential Model
When we released our last presidential update, the consensus was that Donald Trump was favored to win. Since President Biden’s departure from the race, however, the electoral picture has changed considerably. Kamala Harris’ entrance into the race ushered in a boom in Democratic enthusiasm and revitalized the party’s fortunes in… Read More
-
Our 2024 Polling Aggregators (And How They Work)
With the election cycle in full swing and the electoral picture stabilizing, it can be easy to overreact to noise in individual polls and develop narratives around them. That’s why today at Split Ticket, we’re releasing our polling aggregates for 2024. Our hope is that you can use them to… Read More
-
We Polled Nebraska (And Its Second District). Here’s What We Found.
It’s not often that much electoral attention finds its way to the Republican-dominated Great Plains, as the region only has a few remotely-competitive districts on the federal level. This year, however, Nebraska features three potentially-competitive races: the single electoral vote controlled by the state’s second congressional district (NE-02), the concurrent… Read More