Harrison Lavelle
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What Happened In 2023, And What Does It Mean For 2024?
It goes without saying that Democrats broadly exceeded pre-election expectations last Tuesday. Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear won reelection comfortably, improving relative to his 2019 performance across the state. In Mississippi, challenger Brandon Presley came closer to winning the gubernatorial race than any Democrat since 1999. Their success wasn’t limited to… Read More
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Our November 2023 State Legislative and Referendum Elections Preview
Tuesday’s gubernatorial elections may take up most of the attention, but they’re not the only important contests taking place this week. In Ohio, voters will decide two high-profile state initiatives. The first, Issue 1, would establish a state constitutional right to free reproductive decision making while prohibiting abortion restrictions prior… Read More
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New Jersey Temperature Check: 10/21
Last week, we adjusted our legislative ratings in Virginia to reflect the current political environment. With the latest fundraising reports available, we’re now doing the same for New Jersey’s State Senate and Assembly. While a lot has changed since our first update in February, Democrats ultimately remain comfortable favorites to… Read More
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Virginia Temperature Check: 10/12
Today we’re updating our legislative forecast in Virginia for the first time since February. The ratings changes reflect the assumption that the political environment is at least more Democratic than it was last year. Our recent special elections analysis goes into the subject in more detail. In short, we’re expecting… Read More
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House Temperature Check: 9/18
Six months have passed since we released our 2024 House ratings, following the lackluster showing by Republicans in the 2022 midterm elections. Since then, the national environment seems to have improved for Democrats and critical mid-decade redistricting is on the horizon in a number of important states. In light of… Read More
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The Near-Miss House Districts Of 2022
The narrow outcome of the 2022 election makes a thought-provoking exercise out of looking at near-miss districts, where candidates suffered a loss partially attributable to a lack of financial support. To qualify for our list, a candidate must have lost by less than 3 points, had a positive WAR score,… Read More
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Special Election Primary Preview: RI-01 & UT-02
Today, competitive Democratic and Republican primaries are taking place in Rhode Island’s 1st and Utah’s 2nd congressional districts, respectively. These districts, which voted for their favored Presidential candidate by substantial margins in 2020, are not expected to host competitive general elections in November. Therefore, the winners of tonight’s primaries are… Read More
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Joe Manchin’s 2024 Re-Election: Difficult or Impossible?
Senator Joe Manchin is the last remaining Democrat elected statewide in West Virginia. After defying state partisanship to win reelection in 2018, pundits wonder whether he can pull off an even more impressive victory in 2024. Our Safe Republican rating reflects the fact that Manchin’s path to victory is currently… Read More
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How the 2024 House Elections Could Decide the Presidency
Imagine that it’s November 6th, 2024 and Americans nationwide are waking up to very unsettling news: neither candidate has hit the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency, meaning the president must be chosen by the House of Representatives in a contingent election the following year. For most voters,… Read More