Tag: Historical
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A Very Detailed Examination Of The Washington Primary
For people who want non-polling electoral signs, the Washington primary election has been perhaps the most closely watched signal in recent years. This August “jungle primary” pits Democrats and Republicans against each other on the same ballot, with the top two vote-getters advancing to November, regardless of party. The nature… Read More
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America’s Changing Suburbs: the Key to 2024?
For Americans, the “suburbs” have traditionally evoked images of cookie-cutter houses on sprawling roads, housing families with parents commuting to 9-to-5 jobs in nearby cities. Suburbs are also synonymous with a certain kind of prosperity and political power — two things that were, for many years, mostly exclusive to white… Read More
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Do Democrats Have An Issue Advantage in Education?
Political battles over education are a tale as old as the government itself. From the creation of public schooling in the 1700s to clashes over book bans stretching into the modern era, education has been an ever-present force in American politics. It is also an issue that has long favored… Read More
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Running Scared: How A Safe Seat Campaign Saved A Democratic Machine
In 2022, the second red tsunami in two years crashed onto the South Jersey shores. In the region’s light-red congressional district, Rep. Van Drew (R, NJ-02) was reelected by a whopping 19% margin. And in county after county, the once-vaunted South Jersey Democratic machine was absolutely obliterated, losing every major… Read More
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New York City’s Changing Coalitions
New York City is the most diverse city in the world and its electoral coalitions follow these sectional lines. Because voters with similar identities often share political preferences, understanding demographic change helps explain the coalition changes in New York City across forty years: between the 1984 and 2020 presidential elections.… Read More
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How Successful are House Challengers in Competitive Rematches?
Candidates who lose close House races are often motivated to run again. When they do, their high name recognition, strong fundraising connections, and tested campaign infrastructures tend to give them an advantage over primary opponents. Support from national party committees like the NRCC and DCCC can also be decisive in… Read More
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Modeling the Modern Era’s Congressional Environments
Last year, Split Ticket reviewed House-level election results for the 2020 and 2022 cycles and developed a metric to quantify what a “generic ballot” election result would have looked like. In such an election, every voter is presented with at least a Republican and a Democrat on the ballot at… Read More
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Examining Ross Perot’s Impact on the 1992 Presidential Election Results
Many political scientists now recognize that Ross Perot’s independent candidacy did not spoil the 1992 presidential election for Republican President George H.W. Bush, yet few comprehensive quantitative analyses exist to prove such conventional wisdom correct. While exit polls are by no means perfect measures of electoral preferences, they are often… Read More
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Indiana Realignment
INTRODUCTION Back in July, Split Ticket started a new analysis series looking at realignments in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. To add some geographic diversity to the repertoire, this edition will move west to break down Indiana. The Hoosier State is an excellent case study for both the national trends of… Read More