Category: Ratings
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Using Fundamentals To Create An Adjusted Senate Forecast
By this point in the cycle, the conventional wisdom is clear: “polling favors the Democrats, especially in statewide races, because of candidate quality. But fundamentals favor the Republicans“. This is a notion further exacerbated by the fact that polling badly missed by overestimating Democrats in the previous election cycle, leaving… Read More
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House Temperature Check
INTRODUCTION Last week’s special election in New York’s 19th district was one of multiple data points that forced Split Ticket to reevaluate its perception of Republican momentum going into November. To read a detailed analysis regarding signs of a possible Democratic rebound along with some prescient caveats for the fall,… Read More
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New York’s 19th: What Does It Mean For November?
INTRODUCTION On Tuesday, New York’s 19th district shocked the political world and forced pundits of all stripes to reconsider some of their long-held assumptions about the political dynamics of the 2022 midterm cycle. Despite being outspent, trailing in his party’s own internal polls, and having to contest a Biden-won swing… Read More
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District Rundown: New York’s 19th Special
Background With the November general elections just a few months away, Split Ticket decided to launch a new article series called District Rundown. Editions of rundown will be released on a weekly basis until November 8th, focusing on the competitive districts that will be most important to determining House control.… Read More
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Secretary of State Elections: More Important Than One Might Think
Introduction The 2020 presidential election was one of the most chaotic, controversial, and divisive campaigns in the history of American politics. Contested between Republican incumbent Donald Trump and former Democratic Vice President Joe Biden, the tone of the race was defined by once-in-a-lifetime occurrences like the COVID-19 pandemic and the… Read More
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8/2 House Primary Watchlist
Introduction For the first time since June, Split Ticket will be providing full coverage of a nationwide primary date. This week’s races will occur across five states: Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington. Most of the attention thus far has been directed at competitive Republican primaries for Senate and Governor,… Read More
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Maryland House Primary + House Ratings Changes
Maryland House Much like New York’s, Maryland’s initial redistricting proposal was struck down by the courts before it could have electoral effect. No one is happier about the ruling than 1st district Republican Andy Harris. His current Trump +20 seat is based around the Eastern Shore and exurbs of Baltimore… Read More
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Vulnerable Incumbents: Primary Edition
Introduction It is rare for sitting members of the House to lose renomination because they tend to have advantages in terms of fundraising and name recognition. Outsider victories have traditionally been possible only under unique circumstances involving scandal, intra-party ideological chafing, or concentrated electoral weakness. Given the above points, it… Read More
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NE-01: Implications, or not?
Background Both the new and old versions of Nebraska’s 1st district are reliably-Republican seats on paper, which is why Tuesday’s surprisingly-competitive special election barely received attention over the last few months. There is certainly no reason to blame the election world for missing this race, because no one’s fundamentals suggested… Read More