Category: Ratings

• Primary Recap: Wisconsin

  

  February 23, 2023

  Primary Recap Wisconsin voters decided the first round of this year’s nonpartisan state Supreme Court election on Tuesday. Judges Janet Protasiewicz (a liberal) and Dan Kelly (a conservative) will advance to a hotly-contested April general election in one of the nation’s top swing states.  Although Wisconsin Supreme Court candidates have… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle, Lakshya Jain and Leon Sit

• Our 2023 Legislative Ratings: New Jersey

  

  February 19, 2023

  In addition to covering the gubernatorial elections in Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi, we at Split Ticket will be rating state legislative races in New Jersey and Virginia. Today’s analysis offers an early look at the key primary and general election contests for the Assembly and Senate in the Garden State.… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• House Trends & Flip Index

  December 19, 2022

  Introduction Split Ticket is devoting December to detailed analyses of the latest House election results to shed light on the origins of the Republicans’ smaller-than-expected net gain and its potential 2024 implications. To better define the lower chamber’s districts and members, we are developing three interactive tools.  The first, a… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• Georgia Senate Runoff Preview

  

  December 5, 2022

  On Tuesday, Georgia voters will go to the polls for the Senate runoff election, which was triggered by no candidate getting an outright majority in the November general election. Incumbent Democratic senator Raphael Warnock will face off against former UGA football star Herschel Walker, and with Warnock having led Walker… Read More

  Lakshya Jain, Ali Dincgor, Armin Thomas and Harrison Lavelle

• An Early Post-Mortem: Can Democrats Hold The House?

  November 11, 2022

  INTRODUCTION For the entire 2022 cycle, mainstream pundits expected Republicans to comfortably flip the House of Representatives. Looking back, it’s hard to blame them for their optimism. The GOP had already enjoyed surprisingly-good House performance in 2020, netting 14 districts and reaching 213 seats – just 5 short of a… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• Our Final House Ratings

  November 6, 2022

  Introduction Split Ticket is predicting a 234 to 201 Republican House majority. That would put the GOP in similar position to the one Democrats held after the 2018 midterms. Today’s update makes 7 minor adjustments, eliminates all 17 TOSSUPS, and moves one race from LEANS DEMOCRATIC to LEANS REPUBLICAN.  Our… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• House Temperature Check: One Week Out

  October 31, 2022

  A Look At The Generic Ballot With one week to go until election day, Split Ticket is excited to release its second to last House Temperature Check. The previous edition expanded and rearranged the total number of competitive seats in preparation for the gradual elimination of our Tossups, a process… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• House Temperature Check: Two Weeks Out

  October 26, 2022

  Introduction With the election less than two weeks away, Split Ticket is releasing the first of three House updates meant to prepare our board of competitive seats for the eventual elimination of Tossups and to identify seats that *could* be competitive in November. Before delving into the details, readers should… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• October House Temperature Check

  October 9, 2022

  INTRODUCTION When Split Ticket released its last House Temperature Check at the end of August, 45 ratings changes were made in the Democrats’ favor. The shifts followed Pat Ryan’s victory over Republican frontrunner Marc Molinaro in New York’s 19th district, a culmination of Democratic overperformances in previous post-Dobbs special elections.… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle