Category: Ratings
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5/10 Primary Roundup
Nebraska Governor Last Tuesday, businessman Jim Pillen secured Nebraska’s Republican gubernatorial nomination, beating Trump-endorsed rival Charles Herbster by just over three percent. This is the first blemish on Trump’s endorsement record, as the Nebraska establishment largely lined up behind Pillen. Herbster’s loss could be attributed to voters being more selective… Read More
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The 5/10 Primary Watchlist: Nebraska and West Virginia
Introduction This week’s edition of Watchlist brings us to two lesser-populated states with strongly Republican leanings: Nebraska and West Virginia. Neither one uses runoffs, so candidates will only need pluralities of the vote to secure their nominations. Last week’s contests in Ohio and Indiana reignited this year’s primary season after a… Read More
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5/3 Primary Roundup
Senate After months of anxious waiting, the Republican Senate primary is finally over. Trump-endorsed venture capitalist J.D. Vance finished first with 32.2% of the vote, performing well in rural Ohio and the post-industrial working class Mahoning Valley. Josh Mandel came in second with 23.9%, and was generally the second choice… Read More
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House Updates: Florida
Background The latest redistricting cycle in the Sunshine State was like a wild carnival ride the whole way through. From the beginning, outside observers expected the Republican-run state government to press its advantage by crafting an effective gerrymander. But the legislature’s will to draw a 17 or 18 seat GOP… Read More
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Ohio: Districts 1, 9, & 13
Introduction After months of uncertain judicial wrangling and vitriolic national discourse, the Buckeye State’s decennial redistricting process finally seems complete. Back in 2021, conventional wisdom held that Ohio’s solidified Republican trifecta would adopt a GOP gerrymander just as effective as it did in 2012. Following months of discourse, pundit world… Read More
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Temperature Check: Georgia
There are two heavyweight matchups shaping up in Georgia this year, with the governor’s mansion and the Senate seat both on the ballot. In the former, Stacey Abrams looks to set to take on one of Brian Kemp or David Perdue in what might be the most expensive gubernatorial election… Read More
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Breaking Down the Cisneros vs Cuellar Runoff in Texas’ 28th district
On March 1, Texas kicked off the 2022 election cycle with a bang by holding its first-in-the-nation primaries. But in a blockbuster schedule that included hotly-contested statewide races, perhaps no election gathered as much attention as the major ideological showdown between Jessica Cisneros and Henry Cuellar in the Democratic primary… Read More
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The Texas Recap + Ratings Shifts
Introduction Texans voted in the first primary election of the 2022 cycle yesterday, concluding some hard fought campaigns and setting up a few more in the process. To be self-accountable, Split Ticket will be releasing recaps after each primary revisiting our Watchlist predictions while shedding some light on November. So… Read More
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Redistricting: What’s left?
Introduction As of this writing, six states have yet to complete their decennial redistricting processes. Of those six, two (OH & FL) happen to be some of the most electorally-significant states in the country. All told, there are nearly 50 Congressional districts remaining to be drawn. At least 1/3rd of… Read More