Category: Polling
-
Chaos In The Crosstabs
Over the course of this election cycle, perhaps no single demographic has received more attention than young voters, which many polls now suggest to be increasingly Trump-curious. This has been observed alongside a similarly shocking swing toward Biden among elderly voters. If these surveys are correct, then our political landscape… Read More
-
We Polled Young Voters. Here’s What We Found.
If you’ve followed any of the polling from this presidential election cycle, you’re probably aware of massive purported swings in the voting behavior of the youngest and oldest voters in the electorate portended by polling. Survey after survey shows Joe Biden gaining with seniors while cratering with young voters, whom… Read More
-
For Once, Republicans Might Want A High Turnout Election
Entering 2020, it was nearly impossible to find a national poll that had Joe Biden trailing Donald Trump. Polling averages all showed every Democratic candidate leading the then-incumbent Republican president by several points, with the question being the size of the margin. Commentary discussed whether the Republicans even had a… Read More
-
What Do Aggregated Crosstabs Tell Us About 2024?
Now more than ever, political observers seem to be digging into polls’ crosstabs, oftentimes reacting with incredulity at some of the results among certain demographic subgroups. Sometimes they’ll even point to these seemingly impossible subgroup margins (e.g., “There’s just no way Trump is leading Biden among white college graduates!”) as… Read More
-
America and the Affirmative Action Debate
Last month, the Supreme Court decided Students for Fair Admissions, Inc. v. President and Fellows of Harvard College, holding that race-based affirmative action programs in college admissions violate both Title VI of the Civil Rights Act and the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment. The decision, which also covered… Read More
-
The DeSantis Decline
After former President Donald Trump led a hand-picked slate of candidates to defeat in 2022, many Republicans sought a fresh face to lead the conservative movement. For some members of the GOP establishment, the ideal candidate was Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. In him they saw a younger, sharper version of… Read More
-
How Much Does Early Presidential Polling Matter?
Donald Trump’s “MAGA” movement is arguably more unpopular than ever before, with only 24% of the electorate (and 12% of independents) viewing it favorably. But if you looked at the 2024 presidential polls for a Biden-Trump rematch, you probably wouldn’t be able to figure that out. Virtually every polling aggregation… Read More
-
Does Trump’s Indictment Change Anything?
Last week, the Department of Justice indicted former President Donald Trump on 37 counts relating to his illegal retention of classified documents. Despite the possibility of conviction and his unpopularity among the general electorate, Trump remains the favorite to win the Republican nomination, and polls suggest that his latest scandal… Read More
-
Examining Ross Perot’s Impact on the 1992 Presidential Election Results
Many political scientists now recognize that Ross Perot’s independent candidacy did not spoil the 1992 presidential election for Republican President George H.W. Bush, yet few comprehensive quantitative analyses exist to prove such conventional wisdom correct. While exit polls are by no means perfect measures of electoral preferences, they are often… Read More