Category: House 2022
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Running Scared: How A Safe Seat Campaign Saved A Democratic Machine
In 2022, the second red tsunami in two years crashed onto the South Jersey shores. In the region’s light-red congressional district, Rep. Van Drew (R, NJ-02) was reelected by a whopping 19% margin. And in county after county, the once-vaunted South Jersey Democratic machine was absolutely obliterated, losing every major… Read More
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The Near-Miss House Districts Of 2022
The narrow outcome of the 2022 election makes a thought-provoking exercise out of looking at near-miss districts, where candidates suffered a loss partially attributable to a lack of financial support. To qualify for our list, a candidate must have lost by less than 3 points, had a positive WAR score,… Read More
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Election Review: New Jersey’s 7th district
Introduction Welcome to the second edition of Election Review, Split Ticket’s new ex post facto House analysis series. Following last week’s Ohio breakdown, today’s installment takes us east to New Jersey. We visualized the 7th district House election results using a number of maps and data tables, allowing us to… Read More
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Electability, Ideology, and the 2022 Midterms
At Split Ticket, we have repeatedly proven that candidate-driven effects fundamentally impact election results, but we have not completely addressed a more controversial question: do ideologically-extreme candidates pay electoral penalties? Previous analysis on the correlation between moderation and overperformance suggests that they do. But it’s worth looking at how this… Read More
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Our 2022 House Wins Above Replacement (WAR) Model
Editor’s Note: In December 2024, the Split Ticket WAR model received a major methodological upgrade that resulted in WAR score changes. The findings remain directionally the same, but the updated WAR scores are found here. Our 2020 House wins-above-replacement (WAR) model showed that spending still matters in American politics. Among… Read More
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Against The Trend: California
Introduction To celebrate the holiday season, Split Ticket’s Against The Trend series is heading west to California. Rich both in geographic wonders and cultural diversity, the country’s most populated state dominates the 435-seat House of Representatives. Though the Golden State recently lost a seat in decennial reapportionment, its 52-member Congressional… Read More
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Estimating 2022’s Generic Ballot
INTRODUCTION At the beginning of the 2022 cycle, one political truism benefited Republicans above all else: the out party had gained ground in all but three midterms since 1862. During that time frame, the House of Representatives had changed hands in 13 such cycles, with the presidential party often suffering… Read More
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Against The Trend: New England
Introduction Welcome to the third edition of Against The Trend, a new series devoted to regional analyses of the 2022 House election results. After covering New York and Texas, today’s publication examines how Split Ticket’s ratings held up in New England — one of the country’s crossover voting havens. There’s… Read More