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The Texas Primary Watchlist
Introduction Welcome to the first edition of Watchlist, Split Ticket’s new electoral rundown series. With political junkies everywhere preparing for the beginning of election season, all eyes are focused on Texas. There, the inaugural primaries of the 2022 cycle will be held tomorrow. Each of the most competitive statewide and congressional nomination fights will be… Read more
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A New Way to Quantify Political Geography
In redistricting, partisan balance is a central component of debates around the fairness of a map. Those arguing that a map is an unconstitutional gerrymander often point to the partisan balance of the map not matching the state’s, while those defending it often say that the state’s geography is simply not friendly to the opposite… Read more
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A look back at 2018 and what it means for 2022
Introduction With early voting in the first Congressional primary of the year already underway, the midterm campaign season is beginning to heat up in earnest. Due to President Biden’s sagging approval ratings, a strong Republican performance in the 2021 off-year elections, and entrenched historical precedent, general expectations for November point to a favorable national environment… Read more
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Colorado Front Range Roundup
A lot has happened in Colorado politics since our last update – notably the retirement of 7th District Rep. Ed Perlmutter. This article will spell out the latest updates and offer some insights as to what the fall may bring, specifically in Congressional Districts 7 and 8. District 7 – Broomfield to Bishop Castle Ed… Read more
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2022 Governor Rating Updates: Texas
When we debuted our governor ratings for Split Ticket, we had initially earmarked the Texas gubernatorial race, rapidly shaping up as a showdown between incumbent Republican Greg Abbott and former Congressman Beto O’Rourke, as one to watch. Early on, there were key points of concern for Republicans, ranging from a plausible primary challenge from Abbott’s… Read more
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Suburban Republicanism: What is its future?
Introduction Suburban Republicanism is a difficult phenomenon for any political observer to analyze because its strength and tone have shifted greatly over time. One size definitely does not fit all when it comes to descriptors, a reality exemplified by regional traditions that can defy conventional wisdom on both party affiliation and voting habits. The pace… Read more
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Redistricting and Partisan Balance: The New House Map Might Favor Democrats
For long-time watchers of cable news, it’s long been taken as a given that the House of Representatives has a semi-permanent Republican skew due to gerrymandering and geographical bias. Since the emergence of project REDMAP in 2010, in which Republicans crafted gerrymandered maps that drew several red-state Democrats out with surgical levels of precision, the… Read more
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Moderation and Electoral Overperformance
The oldest debate in electoral politics is between moderation and idealism. Some say that parties need to nominate ideologically-aligned candidates who can fire up the base; in theory, they claim, this would engage more low-propensity voters and drive up turnout, overwhelming the opposition through a surge of new voters. Others claim that the nominee must… Read more
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Ticket-Splitting Voters Are Disappearing — Which Makes Them Even More Valuable
The following article was written by Split Ticket Partners Lakshya Jain and Harrison Lavelle for The Bulwark on January 25 and is being reposted here with the permission of The Bulwark. On November 4, 2020, Rep. Collin Peterson—the maverick, conservative Democrat from western Minnesota—was nowhere to be found for a post-election interview. In and of… Read more
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