Split Ticket

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  • Ohio: Districts 1, 9, & 13

    Introduction After months of uncertain judicial wrangling and vitriolic national discourse, the Buckeye State’s decennial redistricting process finally seems complete. Back in 2021, conventional wisdom held that Ohio’s solidified Republican trifecta would adopt a GOP gerrymander just as effective as it did in 2012. Following months of discourse, pundit world received exactly what it had… Read more

    Harrison Lavelle

  • The Declining Value of a Dollar

    I need a dollar (dollar), a dollar is what I need…And if I share with you my story, would you share your dollar with me? The lyrics above are really to the 2010 Aloe Blacc song “I Need a Dollar”, but they might as well be from a desperate text sent by electoral candidates and… Read more

    Lakshya Jain

  • World Report: Serbia, Hungary & Costa Rica

    Introduction This is the first edition of Split Ticket’s World Report, an article series devoted to covering foreign elections. Today’s edition will focus on Serbia, Hungary, and Costa Rica. Particular attention is being paid to Serbia, where Freedom House has observed “democratic backsliding” toward authoritarianism since President Aleksandar Vučić‘s controversial election in 2017. World Report… Read more

    Harrison Lavelle

  • Temperature Check: Georgia

    There are two heavyweight matchups shaping up in Georgia this year, with the governor’s mansion and the Senate seat both on the ballot. In the former, Stacey Abrams looks to set to take on one of Brian Kemp or David Perdue in what might be the most expensive gubernatorial election in a generation. And in… Read more

    Lakshya Jain

  • The Driftless Area & South Korea

    Introduction Lying at the heart of the American Upper Midwest, the Driftless Area has long been one of the nation’s most interesting political regions. For most of its existence, this expansive swath of territory reliably backed Republican Presidential candidates. Excepting victories by Woodrow Wilson, Franklin Roosevelt, and Lyndon Johnson, the GOP prevailed in most of… Read more

    Harrison Lavelle

  • Breaking Down the Cisneros vs Cuellar Runoff in Texas’ 28th district

    On March 1, Texas kicked off the 2022 election cycle with a bang by holding its first-in-the-nation primaries. But in a blockbuster schedule that included hotly-contested statewide races, perhaps no election gathered as much attention as the major ideological showdown between Jessica Cisneros and Henry Cuellar in the Democratic primary for Texas’ 28th Congressional District,… Read more

    Lakshya Jain and Leon Sit

  • A Special Election Trio

    Introduction & Some History During any primary season, most attention is naturally devoted to the nominating contests that directly affect the November generals. But special elections, owing to their rarity and oddness, tend steal the spotlight when they occur a few times each year. Part of the attention stems from competitiveness, since specials usually produce… Read more

    Harrison Lavelle

  • The Battle for the Future of the Republican Party: What is Trump’s Role?

    Introduction When New York businessman Donald Trump first announced his Presidential campaign in June 2015, few mainstream pundits took him seriously. Over the ensuing year, Trump shocked the political establishment by spearheading the successful defeat of over a dozen capable officeholders – each of whom was well-groomed to seek the Presidency. In so doing, Trump… Read more

    Harrison Lavelle

  • Double-Bunkings: Historical Lessons

    Introduction Double-bunkings are among the most enjoyable contests that redistricting connoisseurs and political wonks get to cover. There are a three main factors that fuel the mysterious allure that is often associated with them. For one, double-bunkings are the only contests that pit two incumbents of the same party against each other. Sitting members are… Read more

    Harrison Lavelle

  • Is Electability Real?

    One of the biggest flashpoints in the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries was the notion of electability. Candidate after candidate was assessed by primary voters on the basis of who would be most likely to win the general election against Donald Trump, and entire campaigns floundered or surged around their answers to the question. Critics of… Read more

    Lakshya Jain

  • Our 2018 House Wins-Above-Replacement Model, and the 2022 Implications

    In today’s era of hyperpolarization, the single most accurate predictor of a district’s congressional vote is the presidential lean of the seat. As we previously analyzed here at Split Ticket, 97% of a district’s 2020 congressional vote could be explained simply by its presidential lean that year. With this in mind, it is likely that… Read more

    Lakshya Jain

  • Retirement Musings: Part 2

    Introduction Last year, one of Split Ticket’s first articles focused on House retirements. Since then, numerous incumbents (though mostly Democrats) have hopped on the departure train heading out of Washington. With filing deadlines fast approaching across the country, most candidates have already declared their intentions. This follow-up article will take a brief look at the… Read more

    Harrison Lavelle