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The Gender Gap in American Politics
Virtually every partisan divergence in the modern American political era has been analyzed under the microscope, especially since the election of Donald Trump. This is especially true when evaluating divergences along racial, regional, and education-based lines. Perhaps one of the more under-analyzed splits has been the difference in voting patterns between men and women; an… Read more
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Temperature Check: US Senate
In this election cycle, the broad consensus after Democratic defeats in November 2021 was that the Republicans were poised to cruise to majorities in both the Senate and the House, with the acceleration of educational polarization combining with an unfavorable national environment to begin a possible multi-cycle Republican majority. However, ever since the extremely unpopular… Read more
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8/23 Primary Recap
SENATE FLORIDA In the Florida Senate race, 10th district Congresswoman Val Demings secured the Democratic nomination to take on incumbent Republican Marco Rubio without a significant protest vote. Her nearest competitor, Brian Rush, carried just Liberty and Holmes counties, both located in the Panhandle. Rubio is a strong favorite to win reelection in the fall,… Read more
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Statewide Watchlist/Senate Update (8/23)
SENATE FLORIDA In Florida, congresswoman Val Demings should coast to the Democratic nomination, setting up a November matchup with incumbent Republican senator Marco Rubio. This race was previously considered to be Safe Republican by us due to a combination of Rubio’s candidate strength and the expected Republican lean of the year. However, the post-Dobbs environment… Read more
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House Watchlist (8/23)
HOT RACES (NEW YORK, FLORIDA, OKLAHOMA) Florida’s 7th district Florida’s new 7th district (Trump +5.5) is one of the GOP’s top post-redistricting targets. The 2012 iteration of the seat (Biden +10) was greatly altered by state Republicans, who exchanged Democratic turf in Orange County, including the whiter sections of eastern Orlando, for rightward-trending portions of… Read more
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Florida, Under The Hood
No state inspires emotionally-charged and heartbreak-filled political discourse quite like Florida does. Democrats have lost every top-ticket race since 2012, often by the thinnest of margins, and in 2020, the vaunted lurch rightward of virtually every major demographic in the state (apart from select groups of suburban college-educated whites) shocked observers. Soon after, Republicans finally… Read more
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Primary Recap 8/16
Alaska Senate In a surprisingly strong showing, incumbent GOP senator Lisa Murkowski ended up with a lead of over four points on Trump-endorsed challenger Kelly Tshibaka, which is only projected to grow once all ballots are tabulated. More tellingly, Murkowski and the Democratic candidates combined for 52 percent of the vote, which bodes very well… Read more
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Electability, Politics, and Veterans’ Affairs: An Interview with Jason Kander (Part 2)
This is the second part of a two-part interview with former Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander, who Split Ticket got the chance to interview. Kander was also the Democratic Party’s nominee for the Missouri Senate election in 2016 and came within two points of defeating incumbent Republican Roy Blunt. In the second part of… Read more
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Electoral Reform and National Service: An Interview With Jason Kander (Part 1)
This is the first of a two-part interview with former Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander, who Split Ticket got the chance to interview. Kander was also the Democratic Party’s nominee for the Missouri Senate election in 2016 and came within two points of defeating incumbent Republican Roy Blunt. In the first part of this… Read more
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