Split Ticket

SENATE

FLORIDA

In the Florida Senate race, 10th district Congresswoman Val Demings secured the Democratic nomination to take on incumbent Republican Marco Rubio without a significant protest vote. Her nearest competitor, Brian Rush, carried just Liberty and Holmes counties, both located in the Panhandle.

Rubio is a strong favorite to win reelection in the fall, but post-Dobbs polling suggests that his race should still be on the board amid a neutral environment. Read more about Florida’s Senate race and Split Ticket’s LIKELY REPUBLICAN rating here.

OKLAHOMA

Further west in Oklahoma, 2nd district Congressman Markwayne Mullin beat T.W. Shannon as expected, but by a larger-than-foreseen margin. The former state house speaker carried only Comanche County, home to his old legislative seat, though he no longer lives there. Mullin is the favorite to defeat former 5th district Congresswoman Kendra Horn in a SAFE REPUBLICAN race this November.

The aforementioned seat is currently held by Jim Inhofe, who is stepping down next year. His advanced resignation triggered double-barrel Senate races in the Sooner State. As a result, both of the state’s seats will be elected simultaneously for the first time since 2014.

Governor

FLORIDA

In the Sunshine State, 13th district Congressman Charlie Crist easily defeated Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried to secure the Democratic gubernatorial nomination against sitting Republican Ron DeSantis. Polling had portrayed Crist as the frontrunner long before the first voters even went to the polls. Fried performed best in the North Florida, specifically in the Panhandle.

The general election between Crist and DeSantis is currently rated LIKELY REPUBLICAN. Crist, a former Republican Governor, lost a close race for the office to Rick Scott as a Democrat in 2014.

House

SPECIALS (NY-19, NY-23)

In New York’s 19th district, Democrat Pat Ryan upset Republican frontrunner Marc Molinaro and easily exceeded Joe Biden’s 1.5 point 2020 margin in the district. Split Ticket’s LEANS REPUBLICAN rating was based primarily on fundamentals, all of which pointed in Molinaro’s direction in the days leading up to the election.

The Dutchess County Executive led the consolidated polling average and benefitted from enthusiastic financial interest on behalf of the national GOP. While he predictably outperformed Trump’s numbers in his home county, Molinaro was unable to exceed Republican baselines in Ulster and Columbia.

A special election also occurred in New York’s 23rd district, a Trump +11 seat connecting Tompkins County (Ithaca) with the rest of the Southern Tier. Republican Joe Sempolinski defeated Democrat Max Della Pia, but his margin of victory constituted an underperformance of Trump’s 2020 baseline. Previous special elections in Republican districts (MN-01, NE-01) provided similar results.

Following these developments, Split Ticket will be revising some of its House ratings to reflect an ostensibly neutral environment. Republicans could certainly recover lost momentum before November, and disproportionately-high college-educated turnout could also be benefitting Democrats in special elections, but the evidence currently available still suggests that measured adjustments must be made to keep our priors lined up with the new national picture.

On Friday, a piece will be released analyzing the historical predictive power of special elections in midterm cycles. A subsequent House Temperature Check, complete with each ratings change, is set for publication on Monday. Keep in mind that all other House ratings used in *this* article are current as of July and are therefore subject to change.

Florida

In Florida’s 4th district, a Republican-leaning seat encompassing Jacksonville and its western suburbs, state senate president pro tempore Aaron Bean easily secured the Republican nomination. This district has no incumbent and is rated SAFE REPUBLICAN.

In Florida’s 7th district (Trump +5.5), located in Seminole and Volusia counties, defense consultant Cory Mills defeated state representative Anthony Sabatini for the GOP nomination. Because incumbent Democrat Stephanie Murphy is retiring, he is instead set to face Karen Green, Vice Chairwoman of the Florida Democrats, in a LIKELY REPUBLICAN (flip) race.

Progressive Democrat Maxwell Frost won his primary in Florida’s 10th district, an Orlando-based seat with a sizable minority population, defeating state senator Randolph Bracy. Frost had the largest warchest in the race and had amassed more endorsements from prominent progressives than had any of his opponents. Former Congresspeople Alan Grayson and Corrine Brown failed to generate much headway during the campaign and finished in third and fourth respectively. SAFE DEMOCRATIC

Republican Congressman Daniel Webster had an unexpectedly-close renomination fight in the 11th district, a seat stretching through Sumter, Lake, and Orange counties. Far-right challenger Laura Loomer came within 6 points of knocking off the incumbent, winning Sumter, the most populated county in the district, and putting up a respectable performance in nearby Lake. Webster cruised to victory in Orange, preventing an upset. SAFE REPUBLICAN

In Florida’s 13th district (Trump +6.7), Trump-endorsed 2020 nominee Anna Paulina Luna comfortably won the Republican primary against Kevin Hayslett and Amanda Makki. Charlie Crist is retiring from this Pinellas County seat to run for Governor, allowing Eric Lynn to win the Democratic nomination uncontested. The November race is rated LIKELY REPUBLICAN (flip).

Former Secretary of State Laurel Lee took the Republican nomination in the 15th district, a seat connecting Pasco, Polk, and Hillsborough counties. This seat is only Trump +3.5, but is expected to fall into the GOP column this cycle. Democrats nominated Alan Cohn, the party’s 2020 nominee against Scott Franklin in the old district. LIKELY REPUBLICAN

In the plurality-black 20th district, incumbent Democrat Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick secured renomination in a rematch against former Broward County Mayor Dale Holness. She had won the primary for the January special election to replace Alcee Hastings by just 5 votes.

Holness lost his native Broward County portion of the seat, but performed better there than he did in Palm Beach County. Cherfilus-McCormick’s incumbency-driven victory is reminiscent of the May rematch between Shontel Brown and Nina Turner in OH-11. SAFE DEMOCRATIC

Jared Moskowitz won the Democratic nomination in Florida’s 23rd district (Biden +13.6), a Fort Lauderdale-based seat. He faces Republican Joe Budd in a November race that is currently rated LIKELY DEMOCRATIC. Incumbent Ted Deutch is retiring after more than a decade in office.

In Florida’s 27th district (Trump +0.8), Maria Elvira Salazar won renomination. She will face Democrat Annette Taddeo, an excellent recruit who is considered an underdog against a strong Republican incumbent. LIKELY REPUBLICAN

Oklahoma

In the 2nd district runoff, former state senator Josh Brecheen narrowly defeated state representative Avery Frix to secure the Republican nomination to replace Markwayne Mullin in November. Little Dixie is inhospitable for congressional Democrats nowadays, so the November contest will be nothing short of SAFE REPUBLICAN.

New York

In New York’s two main Long Island-based seats, districts 1 and 2, front-running Republicans Nick LaLota and Andrew Garbarino won their nominations. The results in the latter seat appear disconcerting for Garbarino as of this writing, who, despite being an incumbent, is only taking 54% of the vote against right-wing challenger Robert Cornicelli. These seats are rated LEANS REPUBLICAN and LIKELY REPUBLICAN respectively.

Republican George Santos now knows whom he will face in New York’s marginal 3rd district (Biden +8) this November. DNC Committeeman Rob Zimmerman supplemented a modest victory in the seat’s Nassau portion with a comfortable one in its Queens section, allowing him to defeat former North Hempstead supervisor Jon Kaiman and two other candidates. This district is currently rated TOSSUP.

New York’s 10th district did not fail to disappoint election enthusiasts in providing a scintillating finish to one of the country’s top Democratic primaries. Dan Goldman, widely considered a slim frontrunner based on available polling data, narrowly bested Assemblywoman Yuh-Line Niou while taking a plurality of votes in the Manhattan portion of the seat.

Niou carried the Brooklyn section, but also appealed to Asian voters in Manhattan’s Chinatown for the same reasons that Carlina Rivera consolidated Hispanic support east of Alphabet City. Goldman dominated the Lower West Side, including the West Village, where 17th district Congressman Mondaire Jones failed to generate a new base after switching districts.

Max Rose easily won the Democratic nomination to face Republican Nicole Malliotakis in the Trump-won Staten Island-based 11th this November, defeating progressive challenger Brittany Ramos-DeBarros

In the 12th district, Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerry Nadler easily defeated his colleague Carolyn Maloney in the last double-bunking contest of the 2022 cycle. (Redistricting general elections excluded) Nadler posted large margins in the Upper West Side while simultaneously eating into Maloney’s base out east. Polling had shown a clear shift in Nadler’s favor in the final weeks leading up to the election. Suraj Patel received a decent portion of the primary vote, but his share was spread rather evenly across the district.

Jamaal Bowman (NY-16) and DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney (NY-17) both won contested primaries comfortably, confirming prior expectations. Maloney’s race against state senator Alessandra Biaggi was more high-profile than Bowman’s feud with three different opponents, but the latter race actually ended up being the more competitive of the two. Bowman’s reduced margins can probably be attributed in part to redistricting shifting his district north.

In the 19th district, former Maurice Hinchey staffer Josh Riley won the Democratic nomination to face off against Republican Marc Molinaro in November. This district drops Dutchess and takes in Tompkins (Ithaca), moving to Biden +4. It is currently rated LEANS REPUBLICAN, but that can be expected to change.

District 22, a Biden +7.4 seat based mostly around Onondaga County (Syracuse), yielded mixed primary results. Democrats narrowly received their expected nominee, former Navy Reserves commander Francis Conole. On the Republican side, however, Brandon Williams upset self-funder Steve Wells, Elise Stefanik’s preferred candidate. This district is currently rated TOSSUP.

Stefanik’s endorsement list took another hit in the redrawn 23rd district, where Carl Paladino lost a close primary battle to Nick Langworthy. Although both candidates live in Erie County, Langworthy swept the Southern Tier counties by enough to win. Paladino’s history of controversial comments and statements likely played a role in his defeat. Despite a close special in the current 23rd, the post-redistricting seat includes Erie and is Trump +17. SAFE REPUBLICAN

In the redrawn 24th district, currently being vacated by Republican Chris Jacobs, Congresswoman Claudia Tenney (Utica) successfully won the primary. This seat is new to her, and it showed in last night’s election returns. Challenger Mario Fratto kept Tenney’s margins down across the district, winning multiple small counties in the greater Rochester area. Tenney’s proclivity to underperform in general elections hurt her twice in New York’s 22nd, but is unlikely to have as much of an impact in this seat. SAFE REPUBLICAN