Split Ticket

Elections at your fingertips

  • Temperature Check: Senate

    With just under five months to go until the November elections and primary season approximately halfway over, matchups for the Senate elections appear to be solidifying, and control of the chamber looks set to go down to the wire, with both parties having a credible case for optimism regarding the November outcome for the chamber. Read More

    Lakshya Jain

  • Revisiting Q Scores

    A while back, Split Ticket introduced a new metric to quantify the relative conservatism of a political region, as defined by educational, racial, and political statistics. This was dubbed the Q-score, and it had the highest magnitude among populist white working-class areas that used to be swingy or Democratic, such as southern Ohio, eastern Kentucky, Read More

    Armin Thomas

  • Primary Round-Up: 6/14

    Texas-34 (GOP Success in South Texas) Last night concluded the closely-watched special election campaign in Texas-34, a seat that runs north along the Gulf Coast from the heart of the Rio Grande Valley to the greater San Antonio area. Republican Mayra Flores defeated Democratic attorney Dan Sanchez 51-43.3%, avoiding a runoff in this Biden +4 Read More

    Harrison Lavelle

  • House Watchlist 6/14

    Introduction This Tuesday, a series of hotly-contested House primaries will be occurring in Nevada and South Carolina. In addition to the latest nomination news, Split Ticket will provide updates on the House special elections in AK-AL and TX-34. To find out more about this year’s primary cycle, check out our watchlist and 2022 ratings courtesy Read More

    Harrison Lavelle

  • How Important Is Presidential Lean In Midterm Years?

    Introduction Previous Split Ticket research indicates that a district’s presidential lean is the single greatest predictor of its House result in a presidential year. Polarization has only reinforced this conclusion, causing the total number of “crossover” seats to shrink significantly over the last two decades. (Read more here) Since there is no sign that this Read More

    Harrison Lavelle

  • House Round-up: 6/8

    Introduction Last night had its fair share of surprises, from runoffs in Mississippi to pathbreaking results in California. Since voters in 7 new states have chosen nominees for the House of Representatives, Split Ticket feels compelled to break down the key results as they currently stand. A series of important ratings changes will accompany this Read More

    Harrison Lavelle

  • 6/7 House Watchlist

    Intro & CA Note Primaries will be occurring in seven different states today. Split Ticket covered California in a separate piece last week, so this write-up will be solely devoted to House contests in New Jersey and a handful of other states. Compared to past dates on the electoral calendar, June 7th is also noticeably Read More

    Harrison Lavelle

  • Where Do Trends Favor Each Party?

    The most common way to look at election shifts is to look at county-level swing. This is the standard, accepted tool in virtually every form of analysis, and it is quite easy to compute: for each county, simply take the margin in one election and subtract it from the margin in another. For instance, if Read More

    Lakshya Jain and Kavi Gupta

  • California Primary Watchlist

    INTRODUCTION Next Tuesday, there will be primary elections in seven states across the country. In an effort to keep our articles concise, Split Ticket has decided to devote a separate write-up to the Golden State alone. California is unique because it has more competitive House primaries than any other state and uses a non-partisan top-two Read More

    Harrison Lavelle and Leon Sit