Split Ticket

Electoral analysis at your fingertips

  • New Mexico, Land of Enchanting Politics

    The politics of New Mexico reflect its position at the crossroads of multiple cultures, polities, and societies. Today, Split Ticket dives into past and present political developments in New Mexico to help deconstruct and analyze the state’s politics as we head into another election season.  The full report is available here – below is an abridged… Read More

    Armin Thomas

  • Redistricting Bonanza: AZ, MI, and VA

    Introduction The end of the Christmas reprieve left this week packed with fascinating redistricting developments. Before the holidays we reviewed California and New Jersey, both of which you can read about here. This piece will be focusing on the electoral implications posed by newly-enacted maps in Arizona, Michigan, and Virginia. So without further ado, let’s dive… Read More

    Harrison Lavelle

  • Re-evaluating 2016 with our Senate WAR model

    Among Democrats, arguably no cycle was greeted with as much hope for the Senate map as the one during the 2016 cycle. At the beginning of it all, strategists across the nation thought the majority was theirs for the taking, and Democrats were salivating at the prospects of unseating incumbent freshmen like Pat Toomey in… Read More

    Lakshya Jain

  • NJ's Congressional Districts: A Deep Dive

    New Jersey’s New Districts: A Deep Dive Introduction On Wednesday, the New Jersey Redistricting Commission adopted Congressional districts for the next decade. Tiebreaking commissioner John Wallace backed the Democratic plan, arguing that it was a fair move because Republicans drew the lines last cycle. The new boundaries benefit most of the Garden State’s vulnerable Democratic… Read More

    Harrison Lavelle

  • House Ratings Update: California

    With California’s new maps recently being finalized by its redistricting commission, Split Ticket takes a look at the congressional districts that have been rated as competitive in 2022 by either us or the Cook Political Report. As a reminder, a “tossup” rating means a competitive race with no clear advantage to either side at the… Read More

    Lakshya Jain

  • Trump: Whom has he endorsed?

    Whom is Trump endorsing in 2022?   Throughout his presidency, Trump’s endorsement held significant weight in Republican primaries. Prominent Governors like Ron DeSantis and Brian Kemp, for example, owe their careers to Trump’s influence peddling. His selections rarely fell short (i.e. Foster Friess), and he would often avoid mentioning them when they did. But paying… Read More

    Harrison Lavelle

  • Just how intertwined are Presidential and Senate results?

    Introduction As any election observer will know, ‘split ticket’ voting is becoming an increasingly rare phenomenon in Presidential years. Fewer and fewer states opt to back different parties for President and Senate with each passing cycle, increasing cohesion between federal races. (Gubernatorial contests have more variance owing to their non-federalized nature, but are few and… Read More

    Harrison Lavelle

  • Our 2022 Senate Ratings

    With the 2022 midterm elections under a year away, Split Ticket is pleased to introduce its Senate ratings for next November. In this preview, we’ll be covering all seats rated as potentially competitive by at least one forecaster between the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. 1. Pennsylvania (OPEN – R) Won by a… Read More

    Lakshya Jain

  • Our House Ratings: A Quick Look

    Introduction Split Ticket is excited to announce the release of our initial House ratings. This installment covers states that have enacted maps, or are expected to adopt recent proposals. As with all of our ratings, we will be using the Likely-Lean-Tossup system. Let’s take a look at the seven tossup races. Tossups Of our seven,… Read More

    Harrison Lavelle