Split Ticket

Elections at your fingertips

  • Vulnerable Incumbents: Primary Edition

    Introduction It is rare for sitting members of the House to lose renomination because they tend to have advantages in terms of fundraising and name recognition. Outsider victories have traditionally been possible only under unique circumstances involving scandal, intra-party ideological chafing, or concentrated electoral weakness. Given the above points, it should not be surprising that Read More

    Harrison Lavelle

  • How Much More Ticket-Splitting Do Governor Races Have?

    The notion that voters are far more willing to cross party lines for statewide offices than for federal positions is one of the most-commonly held viewpoints in politics today. It’s a point reinforced by scores of data that we do have; there’s little chance that ultra-popular GOP governor Charlie Baker would be winning a Senate Read More

    Lakshya Jain

  • Henry Cuellar: The Last Politiquero

    Introduction South Texas’s sharp shift in 2020 to the Republican Party surprised many. This region is dominated by working-class Latinos, many of whom are Catholic, forming an overlap of the Texas Democratic Party’s historically strongest demographics. Even in Republican landslides such as Senator John Cornyn’s 2014 rout of David Alameel, South Texas stuck with the Read More

    Armin Thomas and Leon Sit

  • NE-01: Implications, or not?

    Background Both the new and old versions of Nebraska’s 1st district are reliably-Republican seats on paper, which is why Tuesday’s surprisingly-competitive special election barely received attention over the last few months. There is certainly no reason to blame the election world for missing this race, because no one’s fundamentals suggested it would be of interest. Read More

    Harrison Lavelle

  • 6/28 Primary Recap – The Last Super Tuesday

    Primary Recap – Important Developments *A specific piece focusing solely on the implications of the special election in Nebraska’s 1st will be published tomorrow* Colorado The Colorado GOP had an excellent night in statewide primaries on Tuesday. Extreme candidates Ron Hanks, Greg Lopez, and Tina Peters all lost to mainstream challengers who are perceived as Read More

    Harrison Lavelle

  • 6/28 House Watchlist

    Colorado For more detailed analysis by Colorado expert Armin Thomas and Lakshya Jain, check out the Centennial State preview here. The 3rd district takes in much of western and south-central Colorado. It is composed of a diverse set of political constituencies: conservative bastions like Grand Junction, liberal extensions of ‘Ski Country’ like Aspen or Gunnison, Read More

    Harrison Lavelle

  • Our Final 2022 Colorado Primary Preview

    On Tuesday, Colorado will hold its primary elections. At stake in the many contests is the statewide direction of both parties and their narrative heading into the midterm elections. Because of the many races on the ballot, we’ve decided to publish a separate article solely previewing Colorado, and we’ll lead off with the statewide races Read More

    Armin Thomas and Lakshya Jain

  • 6/21 Recap & June House Update

    Primary Recap Virginia In Virginia 2nd’s district, state Senator Jen Kiggans comfortably won the GOP nomination with 56% of the vote. She defeated three opponents running to her right, including Navy veteran Jarome Bell. Her strongest district-wide margin came from Virginia Beach County, where she took 63%. She performed worst in Accomack County, which Bell Read More

    Harrison Lavelle

  • 6/21 House Watchlist: VA, GA, & AL

    Introduction This week, six important Republican House primaries will be occurring in the south. Three of these races are runoffs happening in Georgia, with two of them (GA-06 & GA-10) acting as referendums on former President Trump’s endorsement power. Two more, in Virginia, will determine challengers to incumbent Democrats in marginal Biden seats (VA-02 & Read More

    Harrison Lavelle