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District Rundown: Indiana’s 1st
BACKGROUND Welcome to the seventh edition of District Rundown, Split Ticket’s biweekly House analysis series. The last publication focused on Colorado’s 8th district, a marginal Biden seat that Republicans are now favored to flip. Today’s release brings us to the heart of the Rust Belt to look at another high-stakes GOP target: Indiana’s 1st district. Read More
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Oklahoma Governor: What’s Going On
Oklahoma’s governor, Kevin Stitt, is the latest Republican incumbent to suffer electoral headwinds due to caustic rhetoric and policy. Previously, Split Ticket discussed the factors underlying the ratings change for South Dakota’s Kristi Noem. But similar to Noem, Stitt has antagonized a number of key groups, faces a strong Democratic opponent, and suffers from closer-than-expected Read More
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Republicans Gain In Polling As Elections Approach
One of the weird things about this cycle is that in many ways, it truly is not like any other. President Joe Biden is at 44% approval with registered and likely voters, and yet the generic ballot and special election results indicate a tight national environment. Former president Donald Trump continues to command an unusually Read More
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District Rundown: Colorado’s 8th
BACKGROUND & AUTHOR’S NOTE Welcome back to the sixth edition of District Rundown, coming just under three weeks before election day. Our last publication covered the TOSSUP race in Rhode Island’s 2nd district, one of the nation’s few late-breaking House contests. By popular demand, this week’s installment is moving west to the beautiful Centennial State Read More
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What Does The Edge Of The Senate Battleground Look Like?
Ed Note: On Sunday, we published our breakdown of the four core Senate battleground states that are likeliest to decide the majority. Today, we look at the five states closer to the edges of our board: Wisconsin, North Carolina, Ohio, New Hampshire, and Colorado. WISCONSIN This was one of the initial races we moved towards Read More
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The Four Senate Races Likely To Decide The Majority
Ed Note: This will be part of a two-part article series breaking down the state of play in the race for control of the Senate. Part One today focuses on the four core battlegrounds that we believe will be the most tightly contested ones and will decide control of the chamber: Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Read More
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District Rundown: Rhode Island’s 2nd
BACKGROUND Welcome back to District Rundown, a biweekly series analyzing some of the nation’s top House races. This edition, coming just three weeks before election day, covers the race in Rhode Island’s 2nd district, which has recently moved to center stage. Split Ticket moved the seat from LEANS DEMOCRATIC back to TOSSUP last week, a Read More
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District Rundown: New Jersey’s 7th
BACKGROUND Election day is less than 30 days away and Split Ticket has already published its second-to-last House Temperature Check. With the November picture becoming clearer each day, time is running out to cover some of the nation’s most competitive districts individually. The last edition of District Rundown analyzed why Ohio’s 9th district is staying Read More
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MD-Gov: An Impossible Lift for Republicans
Of the four Republican gubernatorial pickups in the 2014 cycle, Maryland’s was arguably the biggest upset. Eight years later, the Republican party that once pulled off two-term Governor Larry Hogan’s victory is virtually unrecognizable. In such a firmly Democratic state, Gov. Hogan’s popularity has nearly hinged on his perception as a moderate. It certainly helped Read More
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